The road to full time

[James Woodroffe]

@darri exactly mate. If I see my shortlist is similar to yours or I’ve entered and see you or Keith has it’s an indication I’m on the right track. If it comes thru cool if it doesn’t that’s trading as long as I’ve ticked the boxes. I get you could be a bit funny about new traders copying you but nobody holds a gun to anyone’s head mate. Just do what makes you happy and comfortable mate.

[liam willis]

@darri when i first started here i jumped on everyones trades and soon learnt that yours and keiths were the the most consistent ones to follow. but the most important thing was that it taught me was not to just follow aimlessly but to learn why you and keith picked those trades, in a way it motivated me to learn how to trade better. i never saw those losses as a bad thing i saw it as part of my learning curve. for example i was laying the draw in the first half but keiths posts made me look at it differently from a price and value point of view. your trades made me realise fomo was a big issue trying to get in a trade for the sake of it. i learnt that waiting until late in the game is profitable but more importantly there are enough games to profit from.
Now i dont follow every trade you post because im not on here as much and because im focusing on my own selections but when i see you post as daniel says and its the same trade ive entered it gives me motivation because im choosing the right games win or lose. its entirely up to you to post or not but i think there are more positives to take from your live trades other than just profit or loss. this is just my opinion but it did change my mindset.

[Martin Walker]

@darri i never really saw them as tips. Just you posting what you were doing. I always enjoyed seeing what other traders were doing that day.

[A Former User]

@daniel-mills hmm when you put it in that viewpoint it does make sense to post them. Maybe i just need to forget about if people are following and see it only as im giving a good game as an option. I just know some are and it plays on me when the red days hit. Ill keep up the live trades as im online anyway for the rest of this week, if i feel like i keep feeling this way ill stop. Maybe trying to think about how you put it will change my mindset for it. I know james said something similar to me not long ago, the re assurance helps sometimes just to see i or keith are on the same game.

[A Former User]

You shouldn't feel bad that other people are following your trades. As you pointed out before, you used to follow the trading thread to see if other full time traders like Keith were on the same games you were looking at. From my viewpoint, I've found it useful to see opportunities in the latter part of matches and see you've also entered. I'm sure that extra layer of confirmation has helped some of the other traders too.

Of course, whatever you decide to do moving forward is up to you and if it's any consolation, from my own results of the last 3 months trading the late over/unders markets was the most profitable trading strategy.

[A Former User]

red day today and while i personally dont mind the odd red day i do worry about others getting on. I dont know why because iv shown for a while now that if you trade the games i post youll make great profit. The issue i have is my strategy has a much lower strike rate needed than say those that enter at HT or those at 60 mins. With those your probably looking to average 80-90% strike rates so members can miss the odd few and still be fine. With my type of trade and probably the reason people dont like to post super late on like me is due to the fact your going to have losers and red days. That for me is fine, but i hate the thought of just because im a full time trader means that those just learning will be piling on the money into these. Now thats great if your getting on every single game i post, but the likelihood that your online for every one is low. And that for me esp on red days gives me a sense of guilt. Its hard to describe tbh, i know, long term members know to hand pick the good ones/compare it to their list but new members will just see full time trader and think ill be right all the time its just not realistic with this strategy. Im aiming for anything over 60% strike rate. The last 3 months have averaged 63% strike rate for late goals, now if you had got on them all and used my staking thats 55% bank growth.

So while i may come across quite jumpy im going to stop posting trades and just stick to the weekly updates as planned. Its great when i post winning days and they happen more often than red days but there is a sense of guilt when your the one people are following. I dont know even tho iv just done 3 months of pure green the odd red day makes me feel guilt for others. I know keith posted something about this a while back too. I didnt feel like that when i was first learning but the more people start to listen and see that im a decent enough trader the more im concerned they will just copy. The main reason im concerned is i used to be like that and followed the big traders. Trusting them to get me out of red days. This was the reason i moved to lists recently because i dont like the guilt on the odd red day cause i know someone will have copied. I hope people can see my point of view, it may be big headed but im just talking from what i was doing at first on here. I suppose being so transparent and documenting every trade actually has affected this because people can trust me more.

For me i dont feel my approach is conducive for live posting. I dont know why i wanted to come back to live posting, maybe it is a bit of a buzz when you help those get out of red days but remember that post i did for why i wasnt doing them? yep i should have re read that. Im not here to help people make short term trading decisions im here to help them long term. So while im being a bit whiney right now i think the previous few posts on this blog about how im using the forum are right. Im going to go towards a weekly update and highlight a few key trades. Less time on here the better for efficiency which is my whole aim this year. Gotta do whats best for me end of day. I remember charles used to do a monthly/quarterly blog on the horses and i loved reading that. I think id like to be viewed like that with weekly updates. I hope people dont view this as selfish but think about it from my point of view. Maybe this is all in my head, but im speaking from experience of doing those habits myself.

EDIT: i think everyone can see the games im looking at anyway as iv posted the SHG filter couple weeks ago, so grab that if you want to see what games im into daily

[A Former User]

@darri You have to do what's right for you, updating a blog daily especially to the lengths you go into must be time consuming. I'd run out of anything intersting to say if I updated mine daily.

What you've achieved in two years is inspiring to me and I've learnt alot from your posts since I joined BTC in May. particulary around volume etc.

Have a good and successful new year and I look forward to reading your regular weekly udates

[A Former User]

So from today iv decided to change up the blog/how i use this forum. Iv been changing here and there over the last 2 years and trying to find a healthy middle ground for members and for myself. While the recent change seems to have been greatly appreciated it dont drain on me a bit to be posting everyday and update of each game. I feel by now most of the long term members will have seen the process so instead of daily updates im planning on doing something different (again).

I will be posting my live trades on the football thread. Quite honestly the football thread is quite quiet and while my whole aim wasnt to be a tipster i dont want new members thinking this place isnt a hub of activity. Also seems like not many post late goals strats on there more filter only stuff, so id like to offer different types of trades for people to see when they log on. Im not against filter only we are testing one ourselves right now, i just want some variety. I wont be doing goal updates on the games, ill just do a wee end of day how things went but just numbers of trades and wins/losses nothing detailed.

What ill then do is end of every week ill do an update on my trading. This is solely for my own purpose and ill look to include one good (winner) and one bad trade (loser) and say why i got on both. Ill also update on the cricket with the same concept.

This will allow me to go more in detail on a particular game rather than just a brief good action type post. This also allows me to stick to my new years resolution which is to be less engrossed with trading. While i set timelines for when ill be active in a game i do sometimes log on here for example just to see whats happening. My aim for 2021 is just to have trading as reduced and as efficient as possible. My strategies are all as good as i feel i can get them now and its just about improving my efficiency to get the best out of myself. While this means less posts each day its really for my own benefit.

For me its great to see the newer traders take on their own blogs recently and for me those are the guys id go follow as they are looking at different things now. Im still going to post the odd essay from time to time because i enjoy trading and posting what i find interesting. I just wish there was more traders in my stage of trading doing these types of threads/blogs. All we see is people posting when they are winning and tend to avoid posting when they arent and i totally get that. But for me trading is as much about the losses as it is the winners. That for me is what id love others at my stage or more to be posting. Unfortunately we cant demand others do blogs as they dont have the time. Its the reason im cutting back too. So slightly hypocritical but it would have been nice if it wasnt just me. Anyway hopefully you lot keep reading these and ill do my best to make them not boring. I started to feel that each day was same old and boring and sadly thats how trading goes when you get the hang of it. But ill try my best now that its less often with better samples of games in between posts.

Happy new year everyone and hoepfully a big one. Cant believe 2 years ago i was staking £20 and thinking i was nailing trading. Now im up at £800 trades for football and honestly i cant believe its grown this fast, i hope the blog helps to show this progress well and that it can be done.

[A Former User]

SHG list 02/01

spurs
norwich
hertha berlin
stuttgart
frankfurt
hoffenheim
bochum
aberdeen
rangers
real madrid

[A Former User]

Thanks guys very much appreciated nursing a hangover today so to log on and see this was a pleasant start to 2021.

@Finn-Kristensen TBH i dont know. Iv been playing cricket since i was about 14 as i was a crud at football (thought i was good) and actually got quite good at it. Iv played at quite a good standard over the years and played for the uni team too. If its not a team i support id rather watch a game of cricket than football. So im quite knowledgeable about the game and my IP reading is probably a result of this. But if i was to come at this from a non fan way i would try to do what i suggest on the football. Go do a bit of pre match research find out who the key batsmen and bowlers are. Find out what average scores are for that ground in that format. A good par score right now in T20 regardless of ground is 175 runs. If they scored more than that id expect them to be favourites. So try to use a par score guide. Then just marry up the two as in current score and who is sill to bat and bowl. Then price. So if you look from a macro point of view im doing exactly the same as i do in football with cricket. PRE-INPLAY-PRICE. Maybe go watch some t20 games, if your not a cricket fan these games dont last as long and can be viewed as less boring. But i would say that just because i have been doing well with them doesnt mean you need to have a look (fomo) im probably beating the learning curve because one i have taken the discipline from football markets into this, two cricket is my go to sport outside of trading it undeniably is the biggest reason iv jumped to a good point in trading it. So id say the best and quickest way to learn how to trade is just get the game on tv and have betfair up and watch what happens during the game and how thats affects the betfair markets. Sadly cricket has even more variables than football so a good knowledge is kind of needed id say personally esp for the way i trade it.

[Stuart Capstick]

All the very best to you and yours, Darri.

[Finn Kristensen]

@darri Fantastic result, Darri - and I second the others when I say thank you for sharing your trades and thoughts. Very helpful! Your cricket results are incredible, especially since you have only been doing it on a serious level for 3 months (as I understood it). I am wondering, as a guy who has no knowledge whatsoever about that particular sport, is it realistic to trade it without said knowledge or is your way of trading cricket heavily based on IP reading?

The results you have made are so good, I can't help but be interested in it (do not fear that I will just start trading it blindly - I am very conservative and only paper trade or use very low stakes until I feel comfortable that I know what I am doing).

[Matt Wood]

@james-woodroffe said in The road to full time:

Happy New Year Darri,
Thanks for everything on this blog over the past 12 months and congratulations on everything you’ve achieved. Thanks for the Iverson blog link and the opening of eyes on a different and prosperous way to trade the T20’s. Let’s all smash 2021 regardless of our sport or sports of choice. Finally thanks for the all PM’s and encouragement it’s helped. Get into those Brewdogs lad and once again let’s all smash 2021.

I second this, thanks for your help across the year (half a year for me) and congrats on your success. Lets all have a great big fat green 2021

[James Woodroffe]

Happy New Year Darri,
Thanks for everything on this blog over the past 12 months and congratulations on everything you’ve achieved. Thanks for the Iverson blog link and the opening of eyes on a different and prosperous way to trade the T20’s. Let’s all smash 2021 regardless of our sport or sports of choice. Finally thanks for the all PM’s and encouragement it’s helped. Get into those Brewdogs lad and once again let’s all smash 2021.

[A Former User]

END of month/Q4:

Football:

This was the first month in which i changed my trading for late goals. I adjusted my stakes to match the strategy in get the most out of it. I cut back on anything else. I see no point in having other types of trades that take me away from making sure im trading these at total efficiency. From now on if im to trade anything else in football they will become set and forgets.
I managed to do some analysis and spot a weakness in the late goals, albeit it was still in profit but i could see a potential far longer term trend start to develop. The 0-0 scoreline wasnt as optimised as it should be. Now these have been changed to pure LTD trades and with set prices. This will help get the most out of all my scorelines.
ALWAYS looking to improve, never settling and always asking questions of my trades. These have been the fundamentals that have impacted on me having such a solid month.
But please bare in mind this result on football although bigger is still in line with every other month, just with the benefit of better decisions via ltd on the 0-0 and bigger stake % on the late goals.

Cricket:

JEEZ! I can see how there are people who can just do cricket solely as their full time sport to trade. Iv made over 50% of my bank on them this month. Iv said this time and time again this is my long term sport.
The t20s i feel like iv nailed and iv only been trading them 3 months. The other formats iv only had a handful of games to trade so looking forward to saying the same on them, but i already have developed a plan of action for all 3 going into 2021.
The par score guide i developed to suit me has worked crazily well. I started to do it purely to help me judge when a team is on course to hit a decent total. Take from mark iverson blog iv adapted it to my own style and now im comfortable that i could take any t20 game and be able to trade it if the game presents an opportunity. That going into 2021 is a powerful place to be, given the schedules next year.
Iv adjusted my staking in line with my main bank now after first 2 months were limited stakes. Im now maximising my trading on the cricket and paid dividends this month.

Conclusion: DEC and END of Q4

This month has knocked me above what i needed for my next milestone and cringeworthy i know but at the end of 2020 which has been a bad year in general, for me its been one of my best because its allowed me to focus on trading and build a business from betfair money which is now also going to be a big earner in 2021 which i never thought could happen.
Next year ill be moving on from my £10k bank and be using a buffed up £20k bank. While its not as aggressively scaling like it used to you have to remember iv also been withdrawing a monthly wage out of that. Now my plans dont change im not going to get greedy instead allow the bank just to grow faster. With the other business taking shape i wont be so reliant on this. I dont yet have a final end goal with trading but i can see the potential of where i think i can get to in the next 2 years. I dont like to set targets but personally we all do we just try to play it down. Its like ranieri when leicester won he wouldnt never say they had a chance until it was over. But you know your close. For me if i could reach £50k bank end of this year id be happy. Now obviously if i continue each quarter like this one id be soaring past that but we have to remember that this is a busy period for alot of sports so it might not be as profit boosting as this period has been. Iv only been at this 2 years. Come along way in trading since then. Even in the last year its soared,

There is just one thing i want people to be aware of :consistency! It doesnt matter if you have a big month win/loss as long as over a large period you remain consistently in profit. Dont go slagging the pro thats makes 5% every month just because you made 20% they are the ones winning at this game. Sometimes it can be "how big is yours" on here and that does annoy me and we shouldn't be comparing between traders who makes more money. End of the day all thats matters is what you make. Your the one that withdraws this money and your the one that loses it and has to go tell the mrs or kids. Read my blog but dont copy it take the parts you like from my trading and adapt it to yours its what i did with others. Stop moaning about how hard it is and start to actively read why others are trading consistently well. Dont worry about those with huge one off months if they keep doing it month on month with proof remember then start to take note of how they are trading. BTC can be a fantastic place if you use it correctly its why im still here and continue to post, remember im a paying member just like everyone else there is no reason you cant also be getting to this consistency.

HUGE post but fitting in terms of whats happened this Q4. Im not proof reading for grammar so apologies. Enjoy tonight as much as you can, im going to be buying a few brewdog specials tonight and up again tomorrow for a fresh start. Exciting times.

[A Former User]

@matthew-biggins that is fantastic to hear, while i am just documenting what i do it is nice to know that its not just for my own use and that others are actually getting something from them. I think the switch from posting trades to actually explaining them is better for everyone long term. Yes i wont be helping people get money short term but im not here for that im here to try cut the learning process. There is plenty of room for all of us in these markets and anyone thats says im giving my edge away is wrong. We all end of day will see things differently at times so its not as if someone is identically trading my trades.

@Matthew-Biggins thanks for the post buddy really appreciated and now we can go on and keep snowballing our banks in 2021

[A Former User]

@darri it’s definitely been a factor in helping me decide which area to focus on. Seeing the success of both you and Keith has been great for me and I imagine many others.

I’ve also found that it’s the ‘easiest’ part of a game for me to be able to read. I say ‘easiest’ but it’s taken a bit of time for me to work out the signs but I’m getting there.

I do feel like it’s the one strategy that’s the most susceptible to trading games that aren’t part of your plan, (which isn’t so bad if there’s a genuine opportunity) but I think reading this blog has helped me to understand which ones to avoid.

Said to you the other day that I think I’ve noticed an improvement in my own thought processes since you stopped posting live selections in the football thread. I still take your pre-game selections into consideration and it’s good to see that I’m picking similar games but it also makes me make my own in-game decisions rather than being influenced by what people are doing on the forum.

Congrats on a great year and good luck for the next one. Hopefully 12 months from now I can look back at this and see how far I’ve come.

[A Former User]

Instead of trading i was looking and reading a few threads on this forum i havent read in a while. Its amazing to read how so many people are now trying to trade late goals. Im not being big headed but id like to think iv had some influence on that. Iv been here for 2 years now and iv never seen so much late goals trades so i think im allowed to think this. If i have helped in anyway to any of the traders who are now trading similar to me that is fantastic. Literally the only reason im posting on here is for that, its still great to see others takes on trading but im not looking to add too much to my trading now, im more focussed on just explaining how i trade, and allowing others to go through the same steps i took. Hopefully ill be able to keep doing this and helping in 2021 and to everyone thats been following these past 2 years hopefully 2021 is when you put everything into practise and build up that bank consistently.

End of year post coming later on but just felt id post an observation and say well done to all those that have turned a corner on their trading whether thats with some of my influence or not its great to see those that stick at it and prosper whatever their strategies are.

[A Former User]

Few games getting postponed lately im going to just take a break today and tomorrow see what is happening. The amount iv made this month is fantastic and quite honestly im more than happy to end the month of a high. There will be a big end of year update tomorrow ill do but i kinda want to spend some time away next few days working on my video stuff and getting that setup for its own huge year. Also next week is jam packed with cricket so a timely break just to recharge and be genuinely delighted with whats happened this month and year. But ill save all of that for tomorrows update.

[A Former User]

SHG list 30/12

spurs
newcastle
celtic
st mirren
hibs
atl madrid
celta vigo

Remain disciplined and dont go chasing targets with only a few days left of 2020, we have all been there when you push more than you should and spoil your hard earned profits. Try to act as you plan to in 2021 with strong discipline and build on those profits. If no trades pop up then dont get frustrated another trade will just be around the corner on a much better game to trade.