The road to full time
-
@darri cheers Darri!
-
@daniel-cooper ah yeah when i posted talking about those two on your blog i didnt know if you would recognise them or not, two trading legends, i just checked their profiles and both are still using the site, must just be choosing to take more of a backseat and enjoying their trading now. It does sometimes get a tad tedious posting every trade you do and they were doing it daily for ages. Used both of them for improving my trading not their trades but how they went about things. Great lads.
Thanks mate, it can sometimes just take a couple of minutes on this forum before a decent valuable post is lost after comments etc. Iv just been saving all the ones i feel havent been covered on this blog and will be good advice in the future too. I will sometimes have an urge to talk about a topic have seen one or two people copy my stuff and post it as their own but i cant help that, least i know its good enough if they feel that way, the credit would be nice tho
Since the summer these have been my favourite things about the blog. I like going into detail about these things as the actual process of a trade is just so basic and boring but the theory behind certain decisions is quite a big topic with loads to talk about.Hoping to be bringing out videos soon, just a lot on right now and trying not to spread myself too thin in helping as remember im just a member on this site too not getting paid to help anyone or share my stuff. Let me know tho if you want a topic discussed i try to do a good one every month.
-
Hi Guys!
Making my way through the POSTS document - fantastic stuff so far! Glad you were here for when I joined @Darri !
What ever happened to Keith and Frode? I’ve never spoken to them or seen them in the forums
-
In terms of my main trading i do have a strategy incoming, ill do a similar post to this but with results and a look at the sheet for people to see. Obviously before i post it i want it to be rock solid. As with anything i do it has to be thoroughly tested, as much as it pains people the process i take to go from idea to full strategy is a long one but seems to produce the most consistent filters. Currently testing a ov2.5, under 2.5 and a comeback strat. One of these is the strat im talking about its close to 100 games in and has plenty of good talking points for a cracking post. It will give a good understanding into how i analyse if a strategy is good enough and how i look at data. Which if im correct is what people posted saying they struggled with, easy to collect the data/idea but hard to turn it into a full strategy.
-
@darri This has been working wonders since you shared it, much appreciated!
-
Seen a bit of activity from members towards the SHG filter i posted the other day. Find it here:
since it will obviously appeal to alot of new traders or those wanting to get involved in 2nd half trading i should really put a bit more effort into tracking it for you. In order to do this much like the FHG project we need to be using the same rules. so ill detail them below:TOP Leagues: australia, austria, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england (championship also), france, germany (bundesliga 2 also), italy, japan (only games from 8 am onwards), holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea (only games 8 am onwards), spain, sweden, switz, turkey
pre match rules: i will start to include these on my daily watchlist. On this list it will also show the key players if these key players are not on the pitch come 60 mins we leave it. There must be something still to play for if at end of season but all mid season games so +10 games and with loads of games remaining will count.
Inplay: as i want this to be a bank builder rather than a main trade these wont be tracked by inplay stats. They will only be able to qualify if they match these metrics: There has been less than 3 goals in the game/and the home team cannot be 2-0 up. There has not been a goal yet in 2nd half. At 60 mins we place the trade for 1.5 (add the commission rate to your trade so if 2% enter for 1.52 if 5% enter for 1.55) place it in the queue and let it run.
NON qualifiers: red cards, if there has been a red card before you enter then do not enter the trade move on. If a red card comes after you have placed your trade for simplicity keep it in the market. A more advanced way would be to try exit for a scartch or small loss but for this sake of me tracking i will be leaving it in. If the home team ARE 2-0 up i will also avoid this.
The aim of the strat for this bank builder: +75% strike rate will net you a tidy sum of money each month allowing you to focus on other trading opportunities. This is a set and forget style strat and once placed we dont need to keep monitoring it. Ideally you would use this as your main strategy and therefore would use proper research but for the purpose of this i want to show the strength of the filter for everyone to use. I initially only posted it for members as i saw one or two struggling to find a solid starting point. Hope this will help you guys, i only plan to track the next 100 games and then hopefully by that time everyone will be content and have the filter saved for them, may even ask the btc guys to add it to the members filter along with the sheet for any future new members.
EDIT: these wont be added to the beginner bank builder on the blog, these are just for members to follow along to if they need a decent filter to look at. My main trades will probably clash alot with these games so doesnt make sense to add them personally however i may start to use them to build my back up bank back over on other exchanges once we move to betfair again.
-
@lee-woodman 3rd of july mate, if you look at my results sheet the games shown are all the updated versions results
-
@ryan-carruthers ah yeah dan was asking why the btc email had 2 games and my one didnt, was just saying that the 2 filters have different stat inputs on them to filter out games, but that both were profitable so just for him to test and see which one suited his style best.
-
@darri when did you do update 2 on your sheet and adjust the filter slightly? I’m tracking results along with another FH filter but need to make a note of the change
-
@darri Saw some comments above about a filter not being on the daily email, not sure which one it refers too?
-
@ryan-carruthers hi mate what filter are you referring to?
-
Another winner after 70
-
@darri If any member has a filter that's proved profitable we are happy to add it to the members filters and Martin is always looking for additions for the email to make members more money
-
@martin-walker its a huge difference isnt it! sometime things happen in the game and its can be double within just 10 mins huge overreactions and a lovely time to enter
-
@darri price is pretty much always 1.4 1.5 at 60ish but at 70+ you can quite often catch some nice movement in price
-
@martin-walker said in The road to full time:
I will add that i trade with no goal yet in second half and around 70 mins with odds around 1.8+
To get the 24 points i mentionedthis i like as its pretty much exactly the same as the way i trade, i used to enter around 60-65 mins and aim for 1.4/1.5 but the way the prices move within such a small amount of time around 70 mins is prime time value as the markets start to panic and my results favoured later entries at the scores i like to get in on. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful is the best quote i have every heard associated with trading
-
@daniel-cooper if you click on the POSTS tab at the top of this page then go the fhg project and look at update 2 there is a fully up to date version of the filter we have built. You can llok at each update to understand why we did what we did. Found out what stats impact the market, tested those, then analysed what was working and what wasnt and then zoned in on a better version at each stage. The results on my spreadhseets are of the most recent version you will find on update 2.
-
@daniel-cooper different criteria between the two filters. Test them both see what fits your style, i prefer mine purely because i know why iv inputted each criteria and the method behind it, but im sure btc lads wouldnt be showcasing it if it wasnt profitable.
-
@daniel-cooper im not sure to be honest, i built a shg version. Im sure someone here will know where to find it
-
@martin-walker said in The road to full time:
Its very similar to the shg filters i built using the same format your fhg one is being built with, it brings up the exact same games just allows me to enter some on a different scoreline. These have produced great results and your fhg one is showing promise so anyone looking to build a filter should consider this approach.
Busy bee over here (more like Mr unorganised) still has yet to look at this FHG filter properly. Where can I find it?
