The road to full time

[A Former User]

With the big bash t20s entering the latter stages im now looking at whats to come with trading this year. Having sat out of football trading for most of jan to focus on it and improve my cricket i feel iv done exactly that. It made me think more about my overall plan for trading. What sports and what strategies to actually commit to.

Cricket:
The ipl and then the big bash in such a tight window really allowed me to sit down and find a working strategy for t20s. The par score and my ability to read a game situation have both helped. Iv now come away with a large amount of games traded and i feel im now set in how i like to tackle them. Because the t20s are focussed tournaments it allows me to build on players form etc. With tests and odis they happen in patches so players adapt to each format. With this in mind its made me want to target t20s only now. The tests and odis are clearly full of opportunities and i even jumped on a few last few weeks and bagged lovely profits. But i dont enjoy trading it. Dont get me wrong ill watch a test match and love it, but when it comes to trading i dont enjoy the waiting around. Im too aggressive for that. If cricket was my only sport id lap it up and really focus on it as money is there. I just dont think it stacks up compared to my other strategies. So cricket going forward is targeting t20s and being a more seasonality type trader. This way i can plan out in advance what and when ill be trading. Efficiency is key this year and i think is my next big step if i want this to remain a full time thing.

Football:
With the cricket being a t20 only and tournament focussed approach this allows for me to really focus on getting back to football the thing that actually got me full time in the first place. As iv talked about over the last few weeks im currently testing a couple of set and forget strategies. My old filter performed well and got me here. Now i want to really improve this. To do that im working on building a new improved filter that can add a base line improvement for me to then work on. Im ideally looking for a set and forget approach. The reason for that is my bank is now at a place were i dont need to grow it so aggressively or optimise it more. Iv in a way done the hard part. For me now taking a more relaxed approach and just taking it at a more controlled pace is something im happy for. I want to in a way be able to just look at a game week and my filters picks and just select the games and times im interested in. Really flexible approach. To do that well im gonna need a good base filter to work from and potentially a couple of strategies to employ.

1.5 SHGs:
These are way too early to judge. What i like about them so far tho is even after the blitz of a start they are still steadily growing. That strategy in my opinion wont change much other than HT scores. The premise is backing for 2 more goals at HT. Its a very relaxed way of doing it as the strike rate needed isnt that taxing. Already made some improvements to that via rules and ill wait for 100 games as with that strat it is a more focussed one so i wont need as many games for testing.

SHG:
This is the filter that im building as an improvement to my old filter. Very basic but im focussing on the key stats i believe are important for SHGs. Im currently measuring the H2 avg goals to see if that actually has an impact on results. Again early days with this one too, and actually with this one i will need more testing as its a busy strategy not like the 1.5 one. What i mean by this is its more likely to have batches of runs etc and can fall victim to randomness more than the other one. So ill wait until most scores have managed to get a decent sample and then ill look to tweak. Iv started to think about how i would trade these. Its interesting the amount of goals scored before 70 mins, further down the line once its stable ill potentially look for a traded option there. By backing 1.5 goals above and cashing out for a goal in that timezone. But the premise is still the same all im looking for is a solid SHG indicator and from there i can work with it either backing one goal outright or a trade. All future plans. Early days but already 4-5% better strike rate on all times and thats with the bad score lines, 0-0.

0-0 HT ltd:
This will be a set and forget test. I have no data or any biased opinion i just want to track it. All im doing is taking the same games from the SHG filter so its still efficient as im looking at same games and then im just seeing how the HT ltd performs. I would love to tackle the 0-0s. The 1.5 strat actually has a good success with 0-0 scores and it made me want to try this. I will be looking for games with ht odds less than 4.0 to track and then as data gathers start to eliminate certain odds. The reason im not doing a different filter is because i want this to be as open a strategy as possible. No bias towards home or away. This may mean it wont work but just tracking and seeing what data pops up.

As you can see its a very targeted SHG approach. In truth its nothing different to what iv been doing before. All im trying to do is try to improve the overall performance to be able to sustain a more relaxed approach. Iv done the hard bit of building a bank by using inplay stats and reading games. My advice on that will never change btw. But my bank can now sustain taking a less engrossed approach. Efficiency is they key for me now. If i can have these 2 filters help me target certain games during a week itll allow me to really plan out a week and make best time for myself.

Efficiency is key this year for me now. Happy place with both sports and now if i can nail time management with trading and support a good lifestyle i can really make sure this stays sustainable. I had to take a break middle of last year as it was really taking up so much of my time and drained me a bit. Yes the money was good and its got me to a great place but it was mentally a tough period. Its funny when you listen to pros in any industry how they say they sacrificed a portion of their time to get good at what they do, and before i didnt appreciate that. Now i can because its not always about skill. But your mental state and capacity to improve. I feel like iv done that part and now its time to start to enjoy the rewards of that. Its no secret i have an ambition to be safe with money by the time im 40 im 28 now and made a huge leap. Im now not only growing in trading but with video production too. Exciting times. Ill keep this blog updated with trading updates. Now that cricket is done ill start to repost my SHG trades and ill pop up a results sheet to reshow my p/l for transparency again too.

[Richard Latimer]

As an aside, I too have found the higher my averages look the worse my results get. It's not a new thing but something I have noticed as an onging observation. A return to the mean is my only explanation and one which Stuart Capstick has agreed with. It really is a case of looking for the sweet spot where there is enough chance of goal but not to the point where goals are so expected that it's a case of expect the unexpected it would seem.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The road to full time:

It's weird because as I'm losing heart on my own analysis tracking every single little detail I compare and contrast it with yours and can see that there is definitely something there. Unlike you my results for 0-0 @ HT are very poor. Other scorelines dragging it down overall are 1-0 and 0-2.

Aside from that when I put the 2 side by side I have a similar number of selections since 15/12 and a very similar s/r based on FG times of 60, 70, 80.

This is also omitting what would be stupidly low odds but not omitting any leagues in particular.

Just shows that the time spent recording all this apparently random data is incredibly useful.

This isn't even accounting for when there early goals in batches which shows a very good potential for late goals.

[Richard Latimer]

It's weird because as I'm losing heart on my own analysis tracking every single little detail I compare and contrast it with yours and can see that there is definitely something there. Unlike you my results for 0-0 @ HT are very poor. Other scorelines dragging it down overall are 1-0 and 0-2.

Aside from that when I put the 2 side by side I have a similar number of selections since 15/12 and a very similar s/r based on FG times of 60, 70, 80.

This is also omitting what would be stupidly low odds but not omitting any leagues in particular.

Just shows that the time spent recording all this apparently random data is incredibly useful.

[A Former User]

@Darri @Lee-woodman

Thanks guys - appreciate the feedback. I'm glad you mentioned the barca and ajax odds as they have been contributing factors to me missing out on trades (last night was a great example, I opted out of backing a late goal and two came). Looking back at all these stats has made me try to take a more open approach and find a sweet spot.

I'm averaging ~ 1.9 for odds taken, but as rightly mentioned that's a false positive if i'm only picking the bad ones. Just going to take the experiences so far and keep aiming for that sweet spot.

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman yep correct about the strike rate being a false promise. However if your min price taken on every game is over the min price needed on your strike rate then its profitable. Sometimes people when they record lets say after testing within that data when price isnt included will have certain games that dont hit the desired price which actually bumps up the actual strike rate. Game such as barca and ajax in their games are likely lower odds to average and therefore would make the strike rate only stat a false promise. Once you move into also recording odds stage of building a strategy that is truly when you know if its a working hypothesis, actually ideally your looking at strike rate of the games when you take better than min price, nothing else matters. See far too many people rely solely on strike rates which are just false, use them as bases and make sure odds compliment and not falsify your results.

My way of thinking and this is how lee is also doing his is to first build a filter that is working. From there you can tweak all you want get it to a solid base. But its when odds are added that we get a fair reflection. Trading really has one simple goal it will never change, take prices better than your min break even price and have those trades that do have a better strike rate than average. All the extra stuff is just a way to get to that stage nothing else. So summarise its actually your strike rate of value trades rather than base results that matters long term. And for me thats great that @Daniel-Mills your doing that by comparing your own trades to the base because thats what matters.

[A Former User]

@daniel-mills This month has been down slightly in terms of SR on a few filters so in time you will probably see it revert back towards the mean a bit. With the figures you mention that higher isnt always better, its a case of finding the point in the stats where going higher stops being better. I use 'ave scored by FT >= 80%' as one of mine; i found 75 gives better results than 70, 80 gives better than 75 but after that 85 and 90 doesnt necessarily improve the results, it just reduces the games and overall profitability - youre basically looking for a sweet spot. You made a point of taking every game above 1.61 and making a bit of green but thats not technically the case and is a bit of a dangerous assumption so just be careful about presuming that to be the case. I think you are doing right in recording 70' scores as its a helpful indicator, some filters will do really well at lower scores in tighter games, some filters will do better at higher scores or it may be great for LTD. And i think its a good idea you are comparing your own SR against the filters SR, after all the in-play stuff is only beneficial if you are indeed improving on the filter. If not then it becomes futile.

Hopefully all the figures start to get better, once you get to 300 results then it should revert towards a more reliable indicator

[A Former User]

@daniel-mills really good analysis mate your looking at this with the right mindset and ways to manage your trading. Trading really is simple if you want to profit all you need is taking better prices than your strike rate for you to win long term. Avg price for 70 mins is around 1.65-1.8 so really thats all you need given the strike rate of these. Adding in certain scorelines and who is winning etc will most likely improve this further when more data is collected. I used that filter for most of last year and got me full time then i started to add in other games outside of it. But lovely to see this mate.

Iv started to track an alternative version of this filter on my sheets. SHG and SHG adapted are new filters. Id ideally like to improve my filter by at least 3-5% on all times. Once iv got to a decent sample ill do a post on here similar to this one. Early days but its looking like promising. Remember tho that my results on that sheet are just strike rates, from there are be able to judge what will and wont be good value trades.

Cracking post bud! Good to see that it still works and that you are making it work for yourself too

[A Former User]

@darri Thats the one!

So, for anyone interested I've been tracking Darri's filter posted above since just before Christmas and trading picks selected out of that. I had a quick look earlier to see if I could have picked games differently or done anything to get a better strike rate so I'm sharing my observations below.

just to recap the filters:

a) overall games played = >10
b) H2 ov 0.5 = > 80%
c) Home scored H2 = >80%
d) away 0.5 h2 = >80%

Heres what I'm seeing and I'll ramble on about it after:

a) overall games played = >10

Nothing worth commenting on here - every game meets the minimum criteria of 10

b) H2 ov 0.5 = > 80%

Results are 80, 90, 100 in this category.

30% losers @ 80
70% winners @ 80

44.64% losers @ 90
55.36% winners @ 90

31.25% losers @ 100
68.75% winners @ 100

c) Home scored H2 = >80%

Results are 80 or 100 in this category.

35.44 % losers @ 80
64.56% winners @ 80

44.83% losers @ 100
55.17% winners @ 100

d) Away 0.5 h2 = >80%

Results are 80 or 100 in this category.

40.98 % losers @ 80
59.02% winners @ 80

34.04% losers @ 100
65.96% winners @ 100

As well as tracking the selections, i'm logging the score at 70 mins. I also track the overall strike rate as well as my own strike rate based on the trades I've decided to enter and the odds taken. I'm sure there are other things I could do, but I like to keep it relatively simple.

This is a small data set of ~ 100+ results taken from 23/12/2020.

It's currently running an S/R (strike rate) of 62% but slowly ticking back up - I do think this month has probably thrown a few peoples S/R's off a touch. Of course, this filter is intended for use along with in play stats and the name of the game for all of us is to pick out the best and do better than the overall S/R!

At an S/R of 62% you want odds of about 1.61 to break even. In theory, you could trade every match, take higher than 1.61 and make a bit of green.

Anyone who reads this blog will have seen Darri talking about the key components of this strat being price, selection, watching the game so I won't spend too long talking about it. I think most people will be familiar and understand that a lot of games on this filter wont meet the criteria for various reasons such as scorelines, goals coming in early, poor in-play...

What is really interesting to me from these results, is that picking out daily games from a watchlist on this filter, I'd lean to pick the 90 or 100 rated picks in columns b, c and d. The 90 picks, are according to these results anyway, are actually a bit less reliable than the 80's.

Picking only games that register 80 in column b) and LCS at 70 mins would have been profitable. In actual fact - I skipped about half of those games and out of the ones I did select, I managed to pick 70% losers. It was the opposite for 100 ranked games, again skipping around 50% but hitting 62.5% winners.

I've not included all of my picks or results in the above. The long and short of it is that i'm 3 points down for Jan - a month where I would have taken a bit more profit by ignoring rules that have made previous months successful (not trading a match with lots of goals already for instance) and selecting the 80 games instead of 90's. Funny old game ain't it? I don't think ignoring all the in play stuff is smart, but I will be looking to adapt my pre-game selections slightly.

Props to Darri for sharing the filter in the first place and hopefully this is useful to anyone else who's been trying to nail late goals too.

[A Former User]

@darri said in The road to full time:

overall games played = >10
H2 ov 0.5 = > 80%
Home scored H2 = >80%
away 0.5 h2 = >80%

TOP Leagues: australia, austria, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england (championship also), france, germany (bundesliga 2 also), italy, japan (only games from 8 am onwards), holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea (only games 8 am onwards), spain, sweden, switz, turkey

Im away to start testing a variant of this after new year so may get updated

this one? @Daniel-Mills

[A Former User]

lots of good discussions this morning from all threads, i enjoy reading others views on trading and how they go about it. Its one part of the reason i started this blog was to show people my way of doing things and how i view trading. Its not a one size fits all industry, while people will have differing views, occasionally throw stubborn comments no one is categorically wrong as long as they are profitable. For example i did a post not too long ago about my view on why i personally dont like split stakes. That doesnt mean its not a valid approach or more importantly isnt profitable cause there is proof that it works. Those are just my opinions. This blog was a place i could voice my opinions in a balanced way and give another take on the same topics. I love healthy discussions on topics that have different angles. Today i talked about staking and how to build a bank, thats my views on it others will think differently. Remember its all about finding what fits the individual. Im more of a sniper type trader hunting the good trades, others like to spread the risk, doesnt mean one or other wont be profitable, Sometimes i can be quite stubborn with things but as time has gone on iv matured as a trader, even improved and learnt that yes my way works but its not the solution for everyone. Its kind of why i dont post this stuff on the football thread anymore because its my opinion on trading. I want people who read my stuff to be able to see the reason why i trade the way i trade by being able to read the journey i have been on to get here. In that way transparency has been a blessing even in the bad runs and next month when this cricket is over ill return to those live trades and transparency again. As im growing my trading takes better and more improved steps. Last 2 years was all about building a bank. The future is all about efficiency and consistency. Ill continue to do posts like todays when the topics arise and is a good post to write about. I enjoy doing them. It took me reading one blog to realise how to actually trade properly so thats why i continue to run this one even if its been running past the initial reason for starting it.

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman yep, but remember thats kind of what im meaning, that mindset shouldnt be a thing. If you look at 3 games side by side and rate each game say 1 of them has a better chance than the other 2 then you just shouldnt trade the other 2. The reason being your trying to find the best trades and safest trades possible and limit risk. I keep to the notion that as a trader im looking for reasons not to trade a game, if i cant find a reason from my stats or inplay then im entering with the same degree of confidence as i would any game i trade. I have a list/checklist if a game manages to pass them all its a game to trade. Thats the consistent part of how i go about including my own opinion of a game to my pre match research. Thats why every game i trade i believe has the same chance of a goal. Now i get that PSG vs sheff utd has a perceived better chance than leicester vs sheff utd but for me each game goes through the same process. PRE-INPLAY-PRICE. Just because i might trade a SHG @1.5 for psg on 70mins but @1.75 for the leicester one thats actually factored into my process. The odds on offer actually negates the difference between what % chance the game actually has because that just how the markets behave. If they were both same price its a clear edge to be on the psg game instead it just doesnt work like that with markets they arent that kind otherwsie we would be swamped with people becoming traders. In the end i believe that those games are both games long term that beat the strike rate needed and of equal % chance. If i had however place 4% on the psg game and 2% on leicester, had psg lost and leicester won it would have been bad trading because each game in my opinion had the same % chance of beating their current odds. Its hard to explain iv tried my best to keep that simple, because really trading should be best kept simple, take a price better than the probability and youll profit long term.

Just remember that doing the extra details like watching inplays or key players is just a way to maximise profits and grow faster. A few % here or there as shown in my earlier example makes a huge difference over a few years. Thats why i harp on about it. Technically if you have a solid set and forget doing the extra shouldnt make it worse only better. Those that do just need to make sure they dont become scared of trading, If inplays affect you too much stick to set and forget. Even i sometimes go off script and hurt my results. Iv grown my bank to a stage now where that few % isnt as needed and in fact is just more time inefficiently spent when i could be doing other things. So im ready for the set and forget approach. But to build quickly in line with the theme this morning id advise anyone to do the extra stuff this blog goes into. Its funny how its all about mindset past a certain stage, its a huge reason why there is 5% of profitable traders.

[A Former User]

@darri Yes that’s true, even if it’s statistically better to go bigger on better trades the effect of a loss will will affect the mindset more than any potential gains of profit

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman For me and this might just be my mindset, every trade i make has the same level of confidence that it will win. If you start varying stakes it then starts to mean you think certain games are more likely to win and in my mind that means those are the games you should only be trading anyway. So yes i flat stake. Its all about consistency. Iv still done the upping stakes for a heavy fav approach and it messes with you when it goes wrong when your next trade is a even game but you put less money on and mucks your consistency. i keep using stuarts strategy purely because its a good talking point. A solid long term profitable strategy and a test of mindset due to the volatility from certain odds. Technically that is placing more money per trade based on odds/chance. But thats also why i wouldnt be able to do it myself. Regardless of the proven profit because those swings mentally would not suit me (The best thing when looking at stuarts strategy is the graph, its not looking at monthly results but the consistent trend upwards long term) It will be why some people wont be able to mentally trade that strategy and give up even tho they know its profitable long term, silly i know but im saying even i would be one of them. I trade cricket the total opposite to late goals because unlike football for SHGs the odds arent always going against you. So you can play with stakes based on opportunity as there are more variables to the price. just my opinion but all comes back to keeping it simple, literally try to make everything seem common sense as much as possible and keep it consistent. Its why we can all seem to build filters because its consistent because its straight from the stats but when our opinions come in we have to make sure they are also consistent and looking for the same consistent things, otherwise we can have results filled with randomness and spikes on the graphs. For me football SHGs are simply does my strike ate match up well with the odds im taking and long term that wins regardless of anything else. The details in to how you get a good strike rate are everywhere on this blog and forum, but trading in a nutshell is strike rates which compliment odds on offer.

[A Former User]

@darri Some very good points! I know staking is a big one and a lot of people with good strategies can screw themselves with incorrect staking. Its the main thing in my head at the minute as i push on to the next step. Do you tend to stick to flat staking or do you ever adjust staking depending on the opportunity?

[A Former User]

Had someone ask about what size of bank you need to be full time. As a full time trader you do get asked that alot and really "full time trading" doesnt necessarily need to be a bank size. Its just a bank size that combined with your monthly/quarterly points is enough to support a full time income. The issue i had with the message and the thing i tried to help with most was the mindset of time. How long it takes to get there. People have read this blog seen me go full time and think jeez he did that fast. Your right i did but i made risky decisions early on that could have gone either way, thankfully when i did reach a goal i stopped and refocussed. The thoughts of growing quickly is the same with anything isnt it really. We all see these get rich quick videos online and expect it to be the same for us. But the funny thing is if you actually listen to some of the richest or fasted growing business owners they all took ages to get to where they are. The most modern day media friendly business influencer Gary Vee for me is the most honest of the lot. It takes time to build long term success. Yes some can have short term booms but not many stay, those are often pumped with money and sold on to bigger companies long term.

So how does this relate to the full time question. Dont rush building a bank. This is hard to answer without using the word easy or simple because actually it is when you really look at what im going to say. Lets drill this down to 2 examples.

Option A opening balance: £100
Monthly growth of 12% (ill explain 12% after specific number i know) lets compound that every month

month 1: profit = +£12
month 2 new balance = £112
month 2 profit = £ 125
If you continued adding the profits to the bank and compounding that new bank end of each month you would have:

Year 1: start = £100 END = £380
Year 2: £1,480
Year 3: £5,766
Year 4: £22,464
Year 5: £87,500

Option B same but with 20% my min past year growth per month

Year 1: £891
Year 2: £7950
Year 3: £70,000

Let me ask you this now did you actually think about how quickly a bank grows without trying to chase it. I see so many people on here or who ask and its all about getting there quickly. I totally get it btw almost everyone who starts tries to get there quickly. THE people that actually get there the fastest are actually the people that realised that way doesnt work the fastest. If your trying to get full time or to a large bank quick think about would you trade the same when those stakes are much bigger? NO! YOU would not risk money like that. Its why actual gambling is dangerous online because its just a number on the screen until its in your bank or hands. Unfortunately, trading online presents the idea of endless opportunities. When in reality thats not correct. We have endless opportunities each day to start a new job or start a business but we wont succeed at them all or be a good fit. So try to think less about how much and more about whats good (quality over quantity).

Patience wins. It took me ages to realise this. I set this blog up to help me combat that and to help show others that actually it can be done in a normal and simple way. The reason my bank has grown much faster is because iv consistently beaten the 20% bank growth per month by zoning in on a good strategy/mastering one before finding others. I know how the markets and my strategy works. Knowing both of those things is how you can win at this game. I saw someone talk about the 'elite' of betfair and someone else say only 5% are profitable. Well anyone using BTC should be adding to that 5%.

Heres why I think this:

There are a number of proven strategies on this forum. Most of the main ones from around the forum typically have a min return of 6 points per month from what i can see using 1% staking. Now look back to my Bank Building above for the 12% bank growth option. Pick either one of those strats and tinker with the stakes as long as they compliment the strat. Most of them would manage to be used with 2% without much risk. There are strats like stuarts where increasing stakes could be very risky but look at the others that could complement that strat as a side one rather than main strat. We are surrounded by people finding good strats all the time. This entire blog tells you how to go about trading late goals for profit. There are superb filters right now on this forum too which if you just traded from them would garner around 4-5points a month blindly trading them. So yes i will use the word simple because while actually learning how to trade is hard once you have the basics is not hard. Once you understand the markets its not about hard work its about mindset. Often the biggest hurdle from trading well - consistency is how fast people try to build their banks. I hope this is a wee lightbulb into thinking long term.

Iv harped on about business like mindset for trading before. Start small and grow in skill. So start with one strat master it and then add, much like in work you get given a task to get good at before getting more responsibility. Its the same with this too. Think how a business would run. Netflix for example took years before it became profitable. Because it worked out what people wanted and used the feedback to improve. Are you seriously trying to build a trading bank quicker than what a regular business would? Its not realistic. Stop chasing and just accept it will take a few years. Think of some of these youtube stars or media influencers (modern trends) MR Beast has been using that platform for years before even being noticed. Try to think of trading as less get rich and more business like and i swear youll see the light.

There are a couple of traders on here iv tried to help with this mindset and its a hard one for them to nudge. They still cant grasp it because it is bloody difficult to switch that i know, trust me i know from stubborn ways of doing things myself. They will stay on minimum stakes even after years of effort and the answers are right in front of them if they can grasp this mindset. Hopefully with this and some of the btc videos we can help these guys get to that mindset and grow that bank however small theirs is right now. Most businesses has 3-5 year plans, do it for yourself too, dont try to beat what most businesses cant and stop chasing!

As ever i get get quite into certain posts and my typing gets carried away but i hope there is atleast a nugget somewhere or lightbulb switch that helps those that feel they are maybe not growing fast enough etc. Compounding is the key early doors, when you get to certain banks levels compounding doesnt work quite the same. Its less growth as you end up withdrawing and typically let a bank/strategy reach a certain milestone before increasing stakes. But when you reach those points itll have been because you did it the correct way or in my case when you clocked on to how you should be doing it.

[A Former User]

I see a few people are viewing the sheets quite regularly. Let me know if your tracking the same stuff so that i can keep that updated with posts. Those that do follow them will now see a few new ones have been added. As with every single sheet on there its a test phase. Since my main trading doesnt always rely on the stats software, im a paying member just like everyone else so im aiming to make the most out of it. The aim is towards a set and forget approach. Bet your fed up of that saying its being used alot on this blog and elsewhere right now. The reason for that is because people who have been on here a while now have a solid main strategy and are just now looking to add complimentary strategies to add to it. For me that is the stage im at. Built the Late goals to a good level, got me to this stage of full time and iv now been trading cricket for a while too. For me i dont really need to add anything else. But as traders we or at least my way of thinking is im looking at long term risk. The way i trade football is quite detailed and when i look to trade anything else at the same time i become so inefficient because its quite a taxing approach. Now dont get me wrong its got me to a privileged place and its why i keep trying to help others get into the same way of trading. If you zone in on one strategy it can really get you driving a bank in a very good direction. But for me i want to be more relaxed now. I dont want to have to sit and watch games anymore, while i predict ill lose profits for it im happy taking less but for less effort, i know this sounds cheesy but my bank now doesnt need to be built in such a way. Its at a level which i dont need to be doing those 20-30% months, really getting the most out of late goals etc.

This brings me to these tests. All of them require less effort. Obviously i wont be able to trade them all, the objective is to be more efficient not less. I plan on hand picking the best performing ones and then really focussing on getting the most out of them, but to a certain level. Iv always had the problem of being a perfectionist, good and bad for trading, as i always feel the need to progress or improve. In trading there isnt a golden ticket, all that matters is profit. This is something as im getting older im improving on not just in trading but in general. You dont always need to seek improvement sometimes things are fine the way they are. So i sat down and thought of all the strategies i had planned to test this year. I then went and inputted what i feel are the relevant stats needed in the stats software. Now this wont be a massively focussed way of doing things im just trying to decide for myself if there is a market for these type of strategies. This will mean a mixture of actual data so seeing if a strategy does well and also my own eye for things. Iv now been trading for a few years now and i think i can spot good trends. So if a strategy on here doesnt at first look that good if i think it has more potential ill keep it going in that direction. Not being big headed its just how trading goes you get a good understanding on the markets quite quickly once you know what your looking for.

So while i may become quite quiet for a while in terms of posting live games know that im long term looking for options. I anticipate that some of these will be gaining data at a good speed so updates will come thick and fast. People will by now know my approach: market overview, optimisation, money test, full strategy. These stages will help build a nice portfolio. It may seem like a lot of work but please remember this is my job so actually it no more than what most people do in general life. Itll be a bit annoying at first but hopefully worth it. Please ask questions along the way. While these are for me personally to trade in future im always open to sharing them. Iv been doing that for a while now with the late goals and would like to help others get to the same stage.

Please do not treat these as daily lists to trade. BTC already has plenty of people posting solid lists with proof that they work long term, these are all brand new. I personally dont even know what ones are best yet so please dont trade only track and help improve. Now obviously there will be some sceptical. I understand that but please just allow for the first batch of results before saying they wont work. These are market overview batches. They arent meant to be profitable they are only to let me see what is and isnt working to then go an work on. Now as you can see some have already been going ie the 1.5 and SHG have a decent amount of games and i expect them to be fairly rapid in terms of being the first to be updated. I know one or two at least are tracking the 1.5 and i do predict that could be one of the more solid options long term. Its a strategy i believe has a lot of value in it as its not always played in the way im playing it. Hopefully once these 2 have a good data set ill be able to show a decent example of how i go about moving from certain stages of testing and ill do my best to explain it. This was the way i developed the late goals at first, once i got a good data set i then started to include games outwith the stats software as i felt the strategy had more scope than just filtered games. But ill not be doing that with these.

Last year was a truly life changing year for me with trading going full time and building a bank. Now its all about making those necessary scalable changes and making my trading more efficient so i can prioritise a more healthy work life balance now my bank is at a good level to accept a more reasonable profit per month. Those months last year while very profitable were very taxing on my mental health/social life as i totally focussed on making money to get to a stage to be able to do this sort of stuff. This ear is hopefully the next big step in making this as stable a job as possible.

[A Former User]

@matt-wood also youll notice im recording goal times. This is for a couple of reasons. One how many have SHGs could be a very simple filter for predicting even just one goal. It will help find out for me if that is a good criteria to add to any of my own SHG filters. Another and the actual main reason why i had that in from start is i want to see if there is also a traded angle on them. So how many game gets a goal before 60 mins etc. I do want to keep it set and forget tho as im veering towards making all football trades this way to focus on cricket. This will all help after 100 odd games when we can take a look at them and find decent trends. 100 is a small sample, but for me thats what i like as a good batch number to then have as a benchmark for future tweaks.

[A Former User]

@matt-wood Early days but good start. Remember bottlabroon posted saying this wouldnt work based off historic data given the criteria i was working with so i expect a fall in the results at some stage to return to norm, i do think it has overperformed and that the most recent run of games is a more true reflection of it long term. But the end goal is 60% and odds of 1.8. remember this is a super basic filter and all im doing is a market overview. Once this stage is done itll be optimising stage. Iv just been tweaking small things recently to it as i noticed a trend early doors those are, home team winning HT and no games over 2.5 HT both removed from data and strategy

[A Former User]

@matt-wood It will heavily depend on the average odds come 100-150 games. Because this is in testing i cant rule out low odds from the data as its juts testing the market. So im not 100% sure the avg of 2.03 right now will remain that high. Lets just say come 100 games the strike rate is 60% and the avg odds are more than 1.8 then we have a profit. So based purely off the little data i have so far thats the areas im currently hoping is the benchmark. It could be better or worse than that but thats the aim for the strategy im looking for, it may need tweaks to the filter/strategy to get there.