The road to full time
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Just wanted to remind people of our rules for the SHG filter. Was looking at the kobe game and the odds were far too low. Remember we need our 1.53 trade to be matched before 70 mins. After 70 mins and we are then looking for a higher average price. For those interested in why i trade later in games for my main trades id advise you do a sepearte sheet showing how successful the strategy is after 70 mins with min price of 1.7. That is a little more advanced and why i havent actively encouraged it. I think the way iv told people to trade will be a great place to grow a bank whilst also learning the markets.
So please read the posts section for the rules, filter and leagues etc. Will see if the kashima game qualifies later on but please be rigid with discipline with these selections. Even tho they are tried and tested they were done so with good selection process behind them.
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@matt-wood There are two main reasons i dont do lower league games. One is liquidity. As your bank grows to a decent size you wont be able to get these trades matched. Right now with newer traders who use minimum stakes you have so much options. The problem is later on. So my mindset here is treat it like you have a bigger bank and cut these out so when you do grow nothing is changing, this is a running theme with everything im doing always treating it as a business bank rather than just some cash from the wages i can through at this. The other thing is lower league football is inconsistent. The players arent as professional and data analysis isnt as used to get peak performance. This is when your data could be corrupted by players who just arent as consistent. Those are the 2 main reasons i only trade the top leagues apart from german bundesliga 2 and english championship.
Dont rush the testing its the key part to all of this. Use my sheets and the way i record games as an example. Only when it becomes and active trade do i record them. So if paper trading treat them as if they were real money trades. I like the minimalist approach i take on mine i used to be far too detailed now i only track the key things for each strategy. The rest is just noise i dont need to worry about. This is something iv only really started to do recently i deleted my other spreadsheets that had too much, yes great for data but i already have a good strategy so no need to be tracking that way anymore. While i do this full time im still very much open to improving further thats why i like being on here seeing how others act etc.
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Sorry gents, didnt mean to be rude last night had to shoot off for a dog emergency. It involved some poop so I wont go into details here
Just going through my records and the posts again this morning. 2 things to note. 1st I had included Norway 2nd league which should not be on the filter, couple of losers in there. Also I think Darri is correct. I am recording all filter games not just the ones that qualify. Will tighten up and reduce things down further for the rest of this month and then see what happens.
Very much appreciate your help gents as the pointers you give me are just saving me months and months of wasted time I suspect
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@matt-wood i just re read and i saw you were paper trading. Are your recording every game on the filter or only the ones that qualify. Id only track the games that qualify. So any game that you would have traded money with so for this SHG example 1.53 odds on those games then we enter. If you want spreadsheets for the LCS or FHG then you can save/download my ones and use for yourself would cut out the finding formula process. I can only assume the filters your using are your own versions? The easiest way for me or anyone to help would be to see the results, in terms of what to do otherwise this blog is full of tips on how to zone in on better selections. Use the posts tab at the top of this blog for the main ones.
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@martin-walker ah righto, i would say that me and you like the same things in trading so we understand late goals value etc, its hard to explain to newer traders that mindset. Its really down to paper trading and testing to prove to yourself that it works. Something you have done superbly.
@Matt-Wood i would encourage you to just stick to the filter with the games and leagues suggested. I think the post of the filter is in the posts tab at the top. Its one of those things when its going to look silly only making small amounts when we are beginning but that snowballs in the future once you have a solid confidence behind your trading selections. Please let me know if you have questions about this, i prefer the blog to be like this than me just posting trades. If you want a more specific style to trading like my main stuff then you need to go a bit more in detail with what is value etc. I would stick with the SHG filter its produces a consistent profit and doesnt need to go into that extra detail. I am tracking with 1% stakes but no reason to not be doing 2% if this is your sole bank builder.
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@darri sorry i meant for matts losing trades. As ive had none with the same filter
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@martin-walker its been an international break buddy so there will have been very little domestic football played in the main leagues, 100% strike rate tho
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@martin-walker careful about posting the pm chat thing mate, i got in trouble from the BTC lads for doing that last week and caused a big stir, i dont think they like people doing that.
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@darri ive had 1 trade 1 win on this filter this month so could be something up with the leagues selected or something
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@matt-wood id happily look at your spreadsheet and results mate always up for helping. Are you sticking to the rules and leagues we set out on the SHG filter?
The timing of goals coming too early is just one of those things. I trade late on in games often 70-80 min mark so a lot of my planned games dont qualify but be patient. The filter works with odds of 1.51/1.53 (recommended) and is the reason im tracking them for everyone to see they are profitable at those prices. What i would do is stick to the games that are on the list/filter. Only trade them while we work on the other strategies. Dont worry about early goals try to not think of them as missed opps because they just werent they never qualified so would have been poor value.
The FHG project is perfect example of how to build a strategy. It takes a while in my opinion and i think other may rush this stage. I mean look at my results so far im sure there is a stack of people eyeing that up already for staking. Im not over hyping it tho, im sticking to the process and building it the way it should be built. This will allow me to be confident long term in the strategy.
I would be interested to see your results and what games your losing on? Id be keen to work on this side with you more. What are you doing differently to the make you lose games.
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@matt-wood yes around 1.8 at 70, if its not close then i will leave it.
You can pm me about fhg if you wish? Unless its ok to talk about it here. Not sure with this being darris blog
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@matt-wood ive got enough results now from paper trading it from the beginning of building it through the tweaks and actively trading it that i know what price i need at different minutes. I dont queue as it could match way too late in the match therefore not giving value anymore
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@martin-walker said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood darri will probably help more but i wait until 70ish to enter, loads of games have a goal to early but thats ok just move on, it didnt qualify.
I personally finished about 11 points up on itAhhh ok so you wait for a time rather than a price point? But presumably you only enter if the price is a minimum at the 70min mark?
Do you do this with your FHG too as my paper trading of those seems to have the same problem I am having with my SHG?
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@matt-wood darri will probably help more but i wait until 70ish to enter, loads of games have a goal to early but thats ok just move on, it didnt qualify.
I personally finished about 11 points up on it -
@ben-dobie said in The road to full time:
@matt-wood hello mate I'm sticking to LCS @ 60 for this month and finding that a hell of a lot of goals are going in before I can get in .... I'm sure it'll even out
That is what I might need to just be patient about. Either that or I should turn to pro lego builder
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@martin-walker I queue it but usually get matched around 60ish
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@matt-wood hello mate I'm sticking to LCS @ 60 for this month and finding that a hell of a lot of goals are going in before I can get in .... I'm sure it'll even out
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@matt-wood what time are you entering?
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Thanks Darri. I need to tidy up my spreadsheet a little and get the good lady to add in some of the more complex formula but I was going to ask for your eye on it once that is done if that is ok?
I think I need to go back and re read your stuff about the SHG filter you shared as I dont seem to be profitable on it. Entering at 1.51 but seems most of the time goals happen before that or not at all.
I am pretty sure I need to be patient and see how the FHG project progresses as I think some of my questions will be answered there.
I might just need to be patient about things as I am aware I am still only in my 4th month at this so do not have the benefit of a 'macro' view of a p&l sheet yet.
I do appreciate the effort you go to with this blog as it is very helpful to me, even if I am a bit slow at times lol
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@matt-wood thanks mate! Could you say what your strategy is and what your historic strike rate is too? Remember about the FHG project and how we are building our strategy from the beginning with no opinions on price etc. Also i did a post about tracking what odds to get in at. Let me know and ill see what i think. Reason im asking for more info is there could b a number of reasons and id like to help you find out what reason it may be.
