The road to full time
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@darri I know, I am not arguing with you. Just stating that it could be seen that split staking is simple to follow?
Just sharing my opinion as you have as well.
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@ryan-carruthers im not arguing anything? im saying how i view it personally, others seem to agree. Its all down to personal preference and just wanted to say what i thought on it as a member had asked me about it. I said in the post you and others profit from it, just would be interesting a comparison of that and a set price system. Just offering different opinions bud no harm
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Yes I cannot complain with my split stake its always done well for me.
Couldn't you argue that doing a split stake is keeping thinking simple? Myself @Frode-Lia do this and both keep our trading simple and do well from it.
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@darri did that with the Reading Preston match last night. It did cross my mind after. Nice to take a win and learn something still!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Just getting the research done for the weekends games and a member asked me about a split stake for 2nd half goals. So i want to write my own opinion on split staking as a strategy. Obviously personal opinion.
You place a stake at varying odds so that in the end if all parts match and the event (goal) you want happens then you stand to make a profit. It allows you to stay longer in a market. So for me this is when personal preference comes in. For me split staking is cutting your potential profits and adding to your losses, with occasional full wins.
Lets say you have 3 parts. We are looking for a 2nd half goal, so over 0.5 goal market. Part 1 is £10 1.5, part 2 is £7.50 2.0, part 3 £2.50 3.0. So full stake is £20.
Goal comes in before we get part 2 matched. We win £5. Thats 25% of our full loss. So every loss we would need to win 4 trades from part one just to break even. The key to this strategy is getting part 2 matched. If that wins we get £20. Then your just needing to be over 50% to be on a winning strategy.
What i want to put forward here is wouldnt it just be far easier to just wait inplay and trade at better prices initially? I understand people dont like to wait until as late in the game as i do before i enter. In my opinion split staking is just a tool to cover fomo in people. Maybe this is just my own head cant get around it. But i look around the traders who do this for a living and are the most followed for their trades. Each person keeps it simple. If i get part one matched and it wins i will be so frustrated that my selection process was well done and i shouldnt be partly rewarded for that. I should get full reward. Secondly im adding to my losses. I just feel people are trying to use this to cover FOMO as it allows people to hypothetically stay in the markets longer. How often are games going to realistically get to the last part matched which would be a bank booster. If your solely reliant on the 2nd part being matched to achieve average odds why not just wait until they hit those odds? Impatience is just as bad as many other bad habits in trading.
Now to counter what i just said there are some strategies that do make profits, im not saying they dont. I think Ryan has one and that sports trading life guy has too. Be interested to compare them using the same games but at set prices, see what works best. To me im still 50/50 on them and dont see it ever being part of how i trade, i like to be fully rewarded when im right not partly, maybe this is something i should have looked at but im content with my own ways too much now
Great post Darri and one that I completely agree with. FOMO is the biggest killer for traders. For my personal style now I don't back below 2.00 and I don't lay above 2.00, if a goal comes before I can get my odds or the in-play stats are poor then I just move on. I'll never run out of matches to trade!
Ultimately though it's about finding your comfort zones, I can cope with long losing runs and missing out on succesful trades because they didn't feel right. If the potential losses are greater than the potential gains then I'm not comfortable but that's just me - I appreciate we're all different.
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Just getting the research done for the weekends games and a member asked me about a split stake for 2nd half goals. So i want to write my own opinion on split staking as a strategy. Obviously personal opinion.
You place a stake at varying odds so that in the end if all parts match and the event (goal) you want happens then you stand to make a profit. It allows you to stay longer in a market. So for me this is when personal preference comes in. For me split staking is cutting your potential profits and adding to your losses, with occasional full wins.
Lets say you have 3 parts. We are looking for a 2nd half goal, so over 0.5 goal market. Part 1 is £10 1.5, part 2 is £7.50 2.0, part 3 £2.50 3.0. So full stake is £20.
Goal comes in before we get part 2 matched. We win £5. Thats 25% of our full loss. So every loss we would need to win 4 trades from part one just to break even. The key to this strategy is getting part 2 matched. If that wins we get £20. Then your just needing to be over 50% to be on a winning strategy.
What i want to put forward here is wouldnt it just be far easier to just wait inplay and trade at better prices initially? I understand people dont like to wait until as late in the game as i do before i enter. In my opinion split staking is just a tool to cover fomo in people. Maybe this is just my own head cant get around it. But i look around the traders who do this for a living and are the most followed for their trades. Each person keeps it simple. If i get part one matched and it wins i will be so frustrated that my selection process was well done and i shouldnt be partly rewarded for that. I should get full reward. Secondly im adding to my losses. I just feel people are trying to use this to cover FOMO as it allows people to hypothetically stay in the markets longer. How often are games going to realistically get to the last part matched which would be a bank booster. If your solely reliant on the 2nd part being matched to achieve average odds why not just wait until they hit those odds? Impatience is just as bad as many other bad habits in trading.
Now to counter what i just said there are some strategies that do make profits, im not saying they dont. I think Ryan has one and that sports trading life guy has too. Be interested to compare them using the same games but at set prices, see what works best. To me im still 50/50 on them and dont see it ever being part of how i trade, i like to be fully rewarded when im right not partly, maybe this is something i should have looked at but im content with my own ways too much now
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Felt lost today without any cricket to trade, had built a nice routine over last few weeks.Football:
istanbul winning against united tonight isnt a huge shock but based on how the game was i was hoping for one either side. Istanbul had a few counters but united constantly attacking so was always a chance they would nick one back. Not to be, maybe could have got out for a small loss with rashford coming off but hung on and not unhappy with the trade.
Rotherham and Derby games both 0-0 at HT. Liked the look of the pre match stats for these, would have entered if 0-1 down at HT too. So really happy they were both 0-0 at 65 mins, placing orders at 1.75 as a good benchmark for championship level leagues.
Had a LTD strategy on the derby match too. Its one of my most up and down strategies but time and time again it come up trumps, hopefully itll kick on rest of month.Nice little profit for today, only going to be watching the celtic and rangers games tomorrow, if either qualifies for a trade ill post but no other games from what i can see.
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The good and the bad of trading today!Cricket:
MI not playing their full strength side and SRH needing to win for a playoff meant if the situation came about were SRH were in a good position id back. MI not getting close to par score. So instead of backing at small odds, chose this match to scalp the SRH chase. Lovely bit of green to top up my IPL tally. Could have taken a position but at this stage id rather be focussing on one thing at a time.
Football:
Couple of losses today, halting the run of 8/8 late goals. So was due a loss or two. People often forget that with my odds and strategy i only need to be right 60% of the time, and my ltd even less. I actually got on these two games at odds greater than evens so was only needing one of them to win. The downside for me was the two LTDs losing. Maybe could have got out in the boro game when assombolonga came off but these things happen. Would i trade both of these again? YES, because i felt these games were open enough for a goal.
Did look for champs league trades but goals flying in and some too early for me to enter. See what tomorrow brings.
2.5 landed in the shimizu game in japan this morning.Up and down day but happy with the trades cricket a real positive given its consistency. Football just riding the variance tonight. Maybe the championship should only be traded when its on my filter, ill keep that monitored.
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Quick post in between cricket and football tonight. Just wanted to do a follow up on the football chat from earlier. This is just my opinion. To be profitable on betfair there is only one core thing that everything evolves around, PRICE. Your job as a trader is to get on at prices that are better than the implied probability. So coin toss example, 50% probability for either outcome. You back odds of 2.10 you will profit long term. All the other things we do as traders should be to improve on our effectiveness to judge what true probability is/our strike rate. Lets bring this to a football example. You have a strategy that has a 87% (garys filter) you therefor have min odds inc commission of 1.17 is your break even. So odds of 1.2 or more will see you profit around 4%/4 points of your bank every 100 trades. Lets say that dips by just 2% to 85% strike rate your then only making 1.66%/1.66 points. Lets then take a look at my results sheet. On my LCS late goal strat, i have 68%, i know 1.5 is my min odds. My average odds is 1.77 making a predicted profit if it continues using 1% stakes = 19%/19 points every 100 games.
So looking at it you can see my margin for error is more flexible. I will typically average closer to the lower 60s long term but why post this? Because i want people who trade systems instead of trading each game individually to realise there is way more money to be made trading each game on its merits. Why are pros always consistently making profits every month even when they have awful days? Its because they are including watching the game, key players, pre match stats, inplay stats/flow and of course price or some combination of a few. But all these are used for is to help improve strike rate. Seeing a lot of people post high performing filters but remember price and strike rate must compliment each other.
Trading for profit is just placing trades at odds/prices better than actual probability/your strike rate. All the extras i harp on about and others do to is to improve on your individual trades which will improve that strike rate. I think people are over thinking things too often.
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@gary-brown Thanks mate, iv been quite vocal on the forum over the last year or so giving advice or posting trades, feel its only fair to show how my trades are going and what stages im at with trading. When i do offer advice on how to improve strategies (done it alot on the football thread) its from a good place and want it to come from someone who is actually trading the way he encourages. Sometimes people dont accept the advice (pre match stats, key players, inplay stats/flow, watching live pictures, prices etc) and long term you start to see cracks but im hoping by always showing my trades and how i trade, will hopefully show people im not just being stubborn or judgemental but actually just speaking from what helped me. Thanks for the message mate, it does mean a lot!
@Rachel-Murray i find the emotional side to trading or "gut trades" are one of the hardest things to cut out or learn not to trade. It takes time. For me it took countless losses and blown banks. I actually came here from a troubled gambling habit so finding discipline took me far too long. Even still im using the tricks i write about that trick your brain. I write down a trading plan for each day/each match. If i go against that plan ill know it was a gut trade and win/lose it shouldnt have happened. Over time iv stopped getting the urge because iv seen how trading can become consistent via the planned route. These are the things i think that have helped me transfer my discipline from football into cricket, will have to wait and see how the rest of comp goes and the other formats but good early signs.
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@darri Great to catch up on your posts, good to see you're doing so well
I like your post about emotional trading, hard not to get caught out by that sometimes and it's something I'm still working on. -
Love what you are doing here Darri
Totally transparent is fantastic and shows that trading is possible to make a living from and backs up what you say.Many pros (so called pros) wont publish this and i guess it does make people actually doubt what they say is actually true but when someone publishes their data like this it proves to people what you say is what you do and its not bullshit like what comes from a lot of peoples mouths when it come to trading and they try and cover up their mistakes by not being transparent and using a strike rate as a record of success which it isnt.
Lots of respect here. Well done MATE.
More people on trading platforms are needed like you! -
Steady going so far in november!
Football:
Included the 2.5 trade from the mls into the update for today as it didnt feature on yesterdays update. Happy with how that went starting to get some decent data around that strategy. Got tweaked a few days ago so will continue to monitor.
Cricket:
Really well traded game here. Not letting emotions or gut influence the trade. I think many people will have been in bad positions with this game going with gut and emotions with the two teams playing. I think kohli and AB bring with them a loyal support for all cricket fans, but to trade cricket well you have to make sure your decisions are not based off this but by value. I think even in the last few weeks this has improved for me. People trade the match situations regardless of price, kinda like in football gut/emotion can haze on what is true value and good price trading.
The best way iv found to do that is use data. Par score and data do not lie. Using these together helps me to trade against the ones that emotionally trade. If you look at all stats recently in the IPL i posted yesterday 18/24 wins have come from teams batting 2nd. When a team is on course like RCB even with players like kohli and AB data doesnt lie. They were far too slow and sluggish today in building a solid total. So anything over 1.6 to back for DC was going to be good value considering the scores at each milestone. Rabada and nortje both still had overs remaining and DC spinners had really stifled the batsmen for runs. This meant they would have to push on against their premium oversea bowlers in the death and i favoured the score and the bowling attack. Kohli, paddikal and AB all failing to get above the par score of 163.
Dhawan and rahane both set a good run rate for the powerplay and using my sheet saw that they were on course for a really easy chase. Well above the same score RCB were at most stages of the chase. Once the price had shot down to 1,2 i exited part of my liability. At this stage my risk reward was 2 points on DC and -2.5 points RCB. My plan was to see how far dhawan and rahane could go and dent the chase before they got out. That way i would ride the profits and get the most from my trade. Dhawan and then another cheap few wickets fell and so i greened up, the price never rising above 1.15 so managed the trade well. Put a small portion on the draw to cover my trade.Really happy with today, not using my full stake based on the importance of the match but all my thoughts and reasoining for the trade worked, and even if they didnt they were well supported by good understanding of price. I think this is one of the things i talked about the other day. The fact iv come from a position of good understanding from one sport already it making learning a new sport in terms of trading much quicker and easier. Taking all that discipline and understanding of how the markets work into good use. Making sure i dont trade with "cricket fan" trades, some past trades have been, each trade should represent value and have a clear end goal in sight. Hopefully with how iv traded the IPL i can use that going into the other formats. Iv had a good world cup the other year and i think the longer formats will suit me more too.
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@catalin-radu iv explained my strategy before, i actually do both when the right situations apply. I enter a back overs/lcs around 65-75 mins if game looks like having a goal, if after 5-10 mins after my lcs/back it still has enough goal action then i will enter a ltd. I treat them as 2 different strategies. But really you could do either or its just dependent on your own strike rate and profit per trade.
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@darri you prefer to back over 0.5 goals instead of LTD? In both games you did the same.
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Hello November birthday this month so lets hope its a good one!Cricket:
Up and down day really unhappy with how i traded the KKR game. I even have on my notes anything over 180 back the batting team. If i had just followed through would have been a solid profit as KKR were 1.72 at one stage to back. A game to learn from. The KP game was super simple just scalping in favour of csk.
For those who follow the sheet interesting the number of times the bowling side first have gone on to win the game. 18/24 wins for team bowling first. With only 4 wins for teams batting first and two draws. If a team fails to get a decent score id definitely like to be on the side batting 2nd here.Football:
Solid day. 8/8 now for my main late goal trades. Refocussing seems to have done the trick with these being far more selective. Anderlecht vs antwerp is a game i wish we could show over and over again as a game to select for late goal strategies. Both teams going for it and both teams getting into the expected goals range almost every attack. Add it the odds and then you have a dream trade.
Man utd not quite the same, but enough flow to the game, felt arsenal had the upper hand and united dangerous on the counter. Both defences had a few slip ups and i banked on there being at least one that would result in a goal. Pen came as i was typing it up on the forum.
Hammarby was similar to anderlecht, only this time one team was doing all the attacking. Entered around 72 mins, and had to wait till 91 mins in before a goal. Still its a win in the book and keeps the form up. One more week till international break again, hopefully get into November with a good start.Conclusion:
Solid start to the month. Weekend has been very profitable. Iv noticed people are posting reds at weekends and ts because they dont treat it like any other day. You should be doing the exact same and even a bit stricter with your selections process. Busy sunday yet i only trade 3 games. Hopefully this will help people realise that weekends should still be profitable as long as you get super strict with your selections.
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@catalin-radu i dont really have a cap on how many i should or shouldnt trade each day. But from experience its normally no more than 5 main trades (LCS/LTD)i do more research than most on my game pre match so if for example i have 10 games on a filter by the time iv researched each game itll be down to 5-6 already. For today i have 7 games on the shortlist, 6 from a filter and one cup game ill watch live. Not all will qualify as goals will come too early or i wont like the inplay action.
I only traded 2 weeks because i took a month off last month to work on other things. It was aided by the international break too so would have only had a few trades on them anyway so no great miss. There is another break in november so again there wont be a full month of trading.
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@darri hi, how many trades do you have on a normal day on the weekend, and how many games you have in your radar in a normal day to trade? I don't know if you understand, I mean, you look for 10 games and you trade 4 of them. And why you had a 2 weeks off?
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Excellent write up and cracking couple of weeks trading to end the month even more so when you consider your trading something different with the cricket.
Thanks for the posts on what your trading football wise.
Here’s to a successful November
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MONTHLY UPDATE: OCTOBERSo having only traded 2 weeks of october due to me taking a break it great to be back with some consistency. Adding a new sport was always risky. But im a firm believer in my approach, master one sport at a time. Im pretty nailed on for how i trade football. Its not going to change. Why i also say to do one at a time is because, once you understand how the markets work in one sport it easier and quicker when you move to the other to understand market principles. Easy to say this after a winning month, but im pretty sure most would agree who have done the same.
Football:
Most people on the forum are here for the football. I try my best to explain certain games, and hopefully its helping others get to grips for their own style of trading. I do often contemplate if posting games is the right mindset. But people need to build confidence so i like posting my games. One thing to remember tho not every game or run of games win and because of my late goal approach its not the amount of games i constantly win but the odds of those games. There are plenty who have high win rates but low odds, i much prefer my way but obviously there are other ways to make money on here. Find what works for you.
Iv been really focusing on watching the matches since covid. I believe its allowed me more flexibility to trade games not even on my filters. iv been sifting through games each day to see if i like it for a game to watch. Hamburg and some of the premiership games spring to mind here.
My filters are obviously the games i believe in most. Key players, pre match stats, inplay flow and goalscoring opportunities(expected goals) are what i look for for a match. Expected goals is something iv thought of more and more for trading and its part of my in game selection. Once these are all ticked i then judge if price is above or below average and then either enter or not. The simpler you make the process the easier you will find trading.Set and forgets: FHG - 2.5
Not a great start for the 2.5 iv actually tweaked it recently so im hoping the next 25 games are better performing. FHG is still in testing and im still posting them up when games pop up on the filter. So if anyone is still following the FHG project then dont worry they are still happening.Really good end to the month even after a poor thrusday. remember its the accumulation of a whole month/year that makes for a good trader. We all have bad days but we typically have more good than bad over a long period.
Cricket:
Iv adapted well so far but im not getting over excited. Im still far too defensive with my trades. Either cutting short good profits or bailing after a few bad overs. Scalping was a bit of an eye opener and the money is there to be made on that going forward. Iv been using a sheet to help me judge how a game is going. As a player and fan of the sport im trying my best to refrain from using my gut on trades rather than good stats or prices. Im hoping after this IPL then next one i will now know when and what situations i should and shouldnt be getting involved with on a pure data way.
For those wanting to know how i trade cricket, i just write down similar to football, key players for both sides. Average scores at different ground and what good target scores are at set times of the games. So using all that i can then judge a % value and then convert that to odds and if there is an edge in the price i enter.
Really good start not remarkable but a solid learning month on the cricket for me.Conclusion:
As you can see from my results sheet up +20 points this month, also look at my strike rate its not always about always being right, its about the odds you take aswell. I only traded 2 weeks, from the 14th onwards. This is just a sign to show people it can be done, and long term you can profit. Iv taken a whole year out to nail football and only football. Its paid off massively. I turned full time trading in march and ever since its allowed me to not only continue to trade but its given me the money to start my own business and side projects outside too.
Any questions just ask guys. Im glad i decided to come back as the people i talk to on here make trading bearable, thanks you lot
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