The road to full time
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Hi Darri this is amazing mate.
Was wondering could you post the football trades mate you did from betfair like you have with the cricket. Be a good insight. -
This is an update on my current trading and to round off the week.Cricket: +1.47
Things have definitely been learnt this week. Im using the par score correctly and in line with using key players im building good trades in game and managing trades well. Positional trading is working and with this being the start it feels good. The results dont do it justice. Not every game or every trade was with my main staking. Some trades i didnt go in on and some i bailed because of increased stakes. One of the biggest things iv learnt is indecision in cricket in t20 is a no go. You will be punished. Its different too football. Your really trading one event in football, in cricket there are so many reasons a price moves. One thing to note, going forward if im trading cricket and football at same time i need to decide which one to watch and commit to. felt like i was always checking football scores and missed reading the flow of the games on both sports. Still really happy with this start not long left of ipl so interesting first foray into t20 for me.
Football: +6.47
Now indifferent week and not consistent enough. My time hasnt been fully into all the usual things i do in the football markets. Lack of research, match watching etc. All the things i usually double down on. really solid start to week when i was doing the usual then come friday with cricket and other social things on i resorted back to basic trading and as would be predicted started to lose some trades. Bit of a wake up call when i looked at the trading results sheet on sat night. So sunday was more aimed at planning the days trades again like normal. All the key research done on time and well before the game so i could jump in and out easily. And low and behold a massive upturn in results. Shame i let it drift on the other days but still moving up and making october a decent month.
Conclusion: +7.95
Look i can complain now but will seem rich that im being critical with a good profit this week. But this is my job and these things are important to me to judge how well im doing. Like most jobs any bad habits can start to take over and really harm things. One more week to go of october, for me only trading 2 weeks this month will be interesting to see how much is made, anything over 10 points would be ideal. There is still some tweaking with the set and forgets to be done so exciting times coming for rest of year.
Edit: for those asking about lcs/ltd and why i do both, for me they treated as 2 different strats. So in the results i can track how both are doing long term. The matches are first matched with lcs/back over, if after 5-10 mins the game is still lively i then enter with a ltd which typically come 75-80 is 1.4-1.6 to lay the draw. Risky for some and an added liability so its why i dont advise new traders to look at it, but hopefully my results will show you it works well.
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There are going to be 2 posts on here one for this weekend and one for the week/my own summary of my current trading.
Weekend:
Cricket: -5.34
Lets start with the bad. Indecision cost me on two games this weekend. Something ill look over on the weekly update. First game was kings 11, looked to be down and out and having left a sizeable trade still on sunrisers i let it run even after a couple wickets had fallen they were well ahead and only needed less than a run a ball. Holder and rashid still to bat. My first hesitation in the match and results in a red screen. This trends into the other game. Mumbia indians had ammassed a sizeable total, with this sort of total only being chased down once but the other times resulting in a tie. So i felt confident that if i could get a decent price i would jump on. RR got off to a flyer and i decided now was best to go in. Stokes and RR kept going and end of powerplay i could have broke even given other trades in the match. I didnt and again hesitation letting me down The ONE good game was scalping and it wasnt a well traded game, had to scalp the CSK innings as had fancied RCB earlier given how the pitch had played. But least it stopped me having an all red weekend.
Football: +6.73
Went into saturday after a few indifferent days and again not as consistent, sloppy errors with systematic trading rather than full focus like normal. I do know why this is and ill explain that in the main update.
Sunday tho was a 10%/10point day. Fantastic end to the week. Now while it puts us back into a good position and wipes all the bad trades if i hadnt made those sloppy trades i would have been building on from earlier on in the week. Watching every game, checking lineups everything iv spoke about on here before all coming together. Standouts being, the wolves game and arsenal. Wolves bringing on traore and leicester bringing on vardy all making the difference, i talk about key men alot and this is why it works. Now obviously i traded the juve game without CR7 but the difference in class to each squad is larger than that off prem teams.
Weekend total: + 1.38 (this includes the set and forgets)
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@rachel-murray thats great to hear thanks! iv been trading for about 2 years, so not that long, i moved from being a terrible gambler to this so was a hard transition. Lots of ups and downs to get to this stage but worth it. I probably sound like iv been on this for ages (knowitall) but i just enjoy sharing what iv learnt along the way and if it helps others get to this stage too then its worth it.
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@darri Learning a lot from your trades and analysis
How long have you been trading? -
@darri yeah I can tell, thanks
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@ken-fildes when i started i never thought id be able to trade the amounts i trade, but slowly iv built it up over time to where it is now. If you have any questions as you go along feel free to ask on here or on the forum mate, good bunch of people on here
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@ken-fildes hi mate, dont worry im a full time trader so the money is all relative, im still only 2% stakes, im still up for the month. Read rest of blog to see what iv been upto over las year or so, nice to see a new face on here, welcome to btc bud
sorry i always worry at such large amounts, just started today for £10 stake lol
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@ben-dobie I get complacent sometimes too, most people can go on a good run and then overtrade, i think the only difference from before is i tend to be able to control my emotions, i suppose that helps by being in a community and posting my trades, kind of have accountability for any trade i make, which has helped.
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@chris-osborne yep other types of trading right now for me is too slow, im not yet at the stage were i like to plug money and not see it working for me, maybe once i hit higher banks etc i can look into that. Much prefer building up businesses/projects/betfair.
Yep absolutely that one of the main reasons i view it as a business bank. Its all about net profit at the end. Every trade is me buying something i think would benefit my business and it builds from there. Of course for some people this will all sound daft, but for me having had a gambling background i need to do these things to make sure im focussed and not get carried away.
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@ken-fildes hi mate, dont worry im a full time trader so the money is all relative, im still only 2% stakes, im still up for the month. Read rest of blog to see what iv been upto over las year or so, nice to see a new face on here, welcome to btc bud
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@darri Hi mate, great explanation and insight into your mindset and helps me in the analysis of what went wrong for me yesterday, I think the losing day had been coming and a little bit of over confidence , complacency has crept in. Thanks for the response, it really is a great help
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@darri jesus mate
sorry to see this, remember to keep stakes sensible and not risk so much per trade until you are confident in it -
@darri nice explanation, a couple of years ago I had a look at forex trading, but it wasn’t the right time for me to get involved.
However, one thing I read or heard that applies to sports trading and mindset is if you consider losing trades to be your costs of doing business (overheads) and your winning trades as your Sales. The trick for any business is to keep your overheads as low as possible whilst at the same time improving your sales
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@ben-dobie there are a couple of things i do now that i didnt at the start. One being the money/bank i have for betfair trading i dont think of as my money. I treat it like a business/investment of its own. So when good or bad days happen i dont get attached or react badly to it. Maybe that is because im full time and my bank might be bigger than someone just starting. But im a big believer in that the quicker you start treating it professionally the easier it will be long term. I built my bank to the level it is doing this so when you now see me making £900 profit the other night and -£400 today its all relative to all levels, 4% or 4 points. The mental tricks you put to yourself by making it a business bank or treating trading as a business really helps your decisions. It then helps when a trade presents itself, your not just going i fancy a goal lets see what happens, your then allowing yourself time to weigh everything up and go yes this is a good investment/like a business. I know this can sometimes sound silly but i find these terms or ways of thinking impact the mental aspect of trading which as you get better at trading is the biggest hurdle.
Another thing which i do after bad days/couple of days take a step back and look at past days results. Look at the history of your strategy have you done anything different to any of those days. So examples from my own experience: have i overtraded, have i been trading too many strategies so i wasnt as focussed on individual trades, was i able to watch the game etc all the factors that can mentally affect your trades. If nothing has changed then it is purely the luck of football/variance. Its one of the days when a strategy has a bad run, they happen sometimes they happen in batches which is when long term traders manage it well and others then try to chase or react badly.
For me today was one match badly traded. 1 match out of 30-40 i will trade probably over this month. It would be the same as if i lost 2-3. In fact iv had runs even worse on this blog, yet sticking to the plan and my rules ended up still in profit that month. Dont look at the £s look at the data, have you a proven strat thats all that matters. Its what happens over 100-200 trades that counts not what you made/lost in a day or week.
@Ben-Dobie i went a bit deep there, obviously not all of it was in reply to your post and peeled away at topics there but your doing just fine mate. Keep tracking and comparing past days and see after the weekend what happens. The reason for me posting the losing day was exactly for this. Iv been posting consistent green updates and thats just not always the case for football traders, especially traders who trade like myself quite aggressively on late goals, so hoping the honesty and transparency can resonate well with others, its not always rosey being a trader, its just how you deal with losses in your own ways.
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@darri Gutted to see you lose money but after today, my worst in a while reading the bottom part of this was just what I needed to make me accept that these days are gonna happen. Here's to a good weekend !
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Couple of losing trades eating into the good profit made in champs league last couple days. Cricket being consistent tho which for me is a good early sign helping ease the variance iv had on football this week.
Cricket:
A terrible match up between the two today, one team out of form (CSK) another looking set to compete for the tournament (MI). CSK batted first and a crazy powerplay saw them lose wickets rapidly. Was at one stage 3 for 4 which obviously the market reacted to. I couldnt see how else to get on in this stage, dhoni and jadeja have in the past done the unthinkable in cricket and i believed that was factored in the price. Once they both got out it was just a case of scalping the market. One tick here and there to build up a nice position on MI. So unlike other games where i have taken a position and then managed it, with some scalping added in, this time all my stak was used for scalping. The amount of money in the markets on cricket means its less stressful about getting in and out and given the match situation i felt safe with the ones i did. Im sure there was a few that scalped it to death but as im still learning and with it still being t20 i was cautious and only did it at certain moments.
Football:
Two dodgy days have ripped into my earned profits from the week. With fixtures almost everyday for the next while im confident this will edge back in favour. Couple things to monitor, LCS looking for an upturn and see how my ov 2.5 performs with a busy schedule over the next few weeks. Big push this weekend and next to see if i can finish october well.
Conclusion:
Added football in for todays update, as i want to show people not everyday is a winning one, as a trader your going to have these days. But look how i go about my losers, its just one game out of 30-40 im going to trade that month. Keep making sure your not reacting to your trades either changing things or overstaking. Many people start tweaking things after just a few losses stop. If its tested and has done well before believe in it!
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@darri Will do mate, will keep an eye on yours too
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@stuart-capstick yep spot on about the set and forgets, 2-10 points per month doing next to no effort is perfect for me, also long term they help curb the betfair charges. There is a good argument to say just up the stakes of your main trades but spreading risk in line with variance when its an actual income is needed.
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@ben-dobie keep me updated mate, mine has only gone through 2 rounds of testing so far, market overview, optimisation and now im on the money/odds stage (three stages i go through with any strat) so far looks promising