The road to full time
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@darri Interesting post that. Strike rate does seem to be king and whilst important value appears to be an afterthought. LLR’s and HBD’s need to be factored in, as you have pointed out a losing streak can decimate a bank if not staked correctly.
The inrunning stuff I do is different as that is purely skill and judgement based(although I’m only prepared to risk as much as I can win before I’m out for the loss). So I guess that follows there too.
I do have a high strike rate strategy for the dogs (76% is needed based on the odds spread it usually runs at 83%), the HBD on it is in the 30 point zone and to get round any wobble I run a 200 point bank. I am backed up by several years of data though from when Betfair used to let you get their historical data free so I’m comfortable. Even that though averages 3 trades a day.
Maybe people should be looking at reducing liabilities for this high strike rate stuff as it is a quick path to the poor house. I blew a couple of banks when I first started like this. 2016 seems like a lifetime ago lol.
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Remember to have a good trading balance. Seeing people have a large chunk of their trading on very high strike rate intensive strats of late. While there is nothing wrong with a high strike rate strat, just remember its flaws. With these type of strats a drop of 2-5% or 2-5 losses guarantee a losing batch of games, remember variance cycles happen. These strategies also require you to be trading more than what most would recommend. So we can see people trading more than 10 games at a weekend, for me thats a lot of games. Especially those that are laying to win 1pt with sky high odds. Remember the risk reward ratio is vital. It still baffles me people like doing those high odds. I understand that as long as the strike rate is good enough, but all it takes if for that one weekend of bad variance and it cripples you. People are forgetting that while they compound their bank they are then making any new variance cycles hit harder. What i mean by this is if you had a set bank say for 1 yr. You could take those high odds hits as your expecting profit long term. However say you are compounding every day (DO NOT DO THIS) or every month your effectively resetting the bank, so when those hits occur they are full on hits and will massively hit your bank. Noticed some people getting hyped at their runs of form only for them to have to immediately return back to square one when they get hit. Then notice the good traders the ones that eat up the bad hits and continue making slower progress. I keep saying this hoping it hits home.
We have moved as a forum towards these high strike rate needed strats in recent years. Good traders have had good spells with these starts, but if you notice, these good traders have since stopped being so bullish with them. Yet all the newer traders continue to try crack it. Just be cautious guys with high strike rate strats. Not saying they dont work just that id argue they are harder than you think and especially if your not managing your trading overall (staking, mindset) well. Just because you see someone have a good run doesnt mean their underlying stats are any good long term. Im pretty sure i could lay 0-0 and hit a big 30 game run of winner only to then be hit with 2-3 bad losses and right back to square one.
Just wanted to say this as its a growing trend and its why iv stepped away from inplay trades like that. Im hoping others do the same in all honesty. Iv a post im wanting to do later probably during a quiet day about my approach and why i think its better than inplay trading.
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There is now a LTD for today:
Brage (sweden)
Iv checked manually and yes this game qualifies
hopefully a winner too0/1 today, put this on here as like the posts above to be first people see, thought it was an interesting subject
back tomorrow with another in sweden -
Ok so there has been a game for today for the past 2 days on the filter, however today its suddenly decided to change its stats?! Iv gone onto flashscores to check it manually and yes this game should not qualify. Makes me worry a bit that a game can somehow do that on the stats software but least we have avoided it on the day
Back tomorrow as iv checked the game manually for tomorrow should be a qualifier for the strat, might need to monitor these games coming up for rest of month until im satisfied this was just a blip.
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NO LTDs for today either, there is one planned for tomorrow
remember quality over quantity, this strategy doesnt require an abundance of games every week like some of these high strike rate strategies that are common right now. Slow and steady 
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No LTDs today
have a safe weekend trading -
@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
Hope the last post is good, here is an LTD for today:
Aldosivi (Argentina)
Lets hope for another good month
1/1 and a solid start to the month
Unbelievable run
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Hope the last post is good, here is an LTD for today:
Aldosivi (Argentina)
Lets hope for another good month
1/1 and a solid start to the month
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Hope the last post is good, here is an LTD for today:
Aldosivi (Argentina)
Lets hope for another good month
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Great to see the blogs doing monthly reviews. Just be mindful to use those monthly reviews as benchmarks for measuring next month, dont just post for sake of it. Remember people dont subscribe just for your blog, your subscribed to get the most out of your trading. Use the forum to better yourself not just do it for others. Thats something over time you share, people dont always want to be told what to do rather see what others are doing well at so they can adapt.
Limit those mistakes, reduce those losing runs and work on those strats. Still see people try to learn or track more than 2 strats. WHY?! Im always saying this but learn one at a time. I know why people arent, its because they want to get this all done quickly. Trading wont let that work long term. The people rushing to get this done asap, by done i mean money/big bank fast, they are NOT doing well. The ones doing it passively are. Its like the saying the rich get richer. Well same can be said about the good traders keep getting richer. Its not a class divide, its not a skill divide, its a mindset divide. The core principles these good traders have, you are not employing yourself. Each month you go nah my way works. Yet each month your struggling to get over that profit line. Yet the pros have just posted another winning month. Try to learn from them, not begrudge them. Remember anyone doing well in trading is fantastic and they must be doing something right in an industry everyone thinks is impossible to make work. Tap into that and see how to change your approach to match, there are huge common themes all the good traders have.
Dont solely rely on the past either. Our data only traders have seen mixed results, but often there is a finer detail they could have changed. Dont break up your strats into different segments, thats bad for management but if you can tweak the overall strat with a finer tweak do so. Just look at my ltd for example. One small tweak and boom a big run. I could optimal trade this, with each league or odds having its own play, but that will not work long term, not based on success/numbers but based on how to manage that. Trading is best done simple, its always been that way, its why the best traders keep being the best, the new traders trying to find game breaking new strats will still be trying while the good traders make more profit and compounding profit too. The sooner you realise that a simple strat that makes consistent green, even in small green amounts, thats all you will ever need. The s&p 500 grows on average around 8-10% predicted to anyway every year. We as traders with simple strats can make that in one month!!
Look i know people arent gonna all now become set and forget traders just because i have. Thats fine. But managing yourself is key to inplay trading. I worry that not everyone understands that and as such adds more pressure to themselves in certain strategies. Something simple, repeatable and with little variance wins all the time long term. Its something iv grown into more and more. I often do these posts and people message saying thanks for this. Instead of that actually implement it. There is nothing better than seeing someone doing well after you have helped them.
Good luck you lot, lets have a good end of year
dont rush it and keep it simple -
1 last thing i promise i know iv had several notifications for this blog today but wanted to share this. I posted this pic on my update (please go read it), that i think always goes under the radar on my monthly updates:
Take a look at the compounding effect that is happening here and how these numbers apart from 1 month arent super high. Id say most people can find a way to get a strategy to at least 13% every month. That is what iv been averaging out since june. You do not need to have some crazy strategy that beats every other traders edge "the golden strat". You just need something thats making enough profit consistently for you to compound. Stop trying to find the most game changing strat, basic and boring ones work too. If we continue making 13% on average at the end of next year this bank will have grown from £3,010 that it is now to £18k! You dont not need to be aggressively staking or taking risks. We are seeing people try to maximise to a degree in which is very risky. Some people are 5-6 losses away from nearly 30-40% of their bank gone. Be very careful guys. Easy at small bank levels but if those £10 stakes turn into £1k stakes youll not be so bullish. But above all else consistency is key. My losses are never overpowering my wins long term. A consistent staking plan and allowing variance to happen will always win if you mix that with a good strategy. People who are chasing money ASAP and aggressively compounding almost daily in some cases, just struggle it always is the same outcome.
Just wanted to post this up as felt this is a huge message id like to encourage people to think about. Its not about those massive runs you go on its about the consistency in your approach. The things you are doing now should be the same things your doing when that bank increases. Start smart and the journey will be easier to take. Never chase this. What iv done in this table bar one very good month is quite basic and im sharing all my trades for you to achieve this going forward. Good luck guys and lets nail rest of this month. Ill be back to less hippie posts tomorrow with an LTD
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Hey Darri. Just wanted to drop a quick post to thank you for your commitment and dedication to the forum. I don’t often respond or join in on conversations, and instead find myself “like”ing posts, but its worth saying out loud your thread is fantastic and very helpful! Cheers buddy
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@darri sorry for the misunderstanding
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@jamie-clements ok so you do have a plan, your previous post said you had no idea what you were doing/looking at...
Instead of posting on this blog and people getting notifications why not private message me or get in touch with ryan and martin on the private coaching
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@darri thanks I've got a couple of filters set up just paper betting at the moment under 3.5 goals are looking good at the moment I'm like you don't wont to sit at the computer all day trading just wont to bet and forget
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@jamie-clements feel free to message me and we can sort something out for yourself trading wise, also there is a private coaching section on the forum where ryan and martin will help you too. Plenty of options to get yourself setup in trading. Dont just be doing things without purpose otherwise youll be in limbo for ages. Small simple steps and youll soon get into the swing of it.
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I've only started following you as I'm new to btc just happy and thankful for your tips 9 times out of 10 i don't know what I'm looking lol thanks again for all your information
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If anyone has questions surrounding the 2 monthly update posts iv done today then feel free to ask, i hope they are presented well enough for people to understand and see whats happening with my trading. Any future addons people would like also post please
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Just for an overview of how significant that month was football wise for me with the new approach:
Since March: Football Only
Total Trades = 324
Total Points/% = +57.09Sept contribution: Football Only
Total trades = 30
Total Points/% = +23.99Thats a whopping 37% of total football profits in just this month. Just shows i wasnt managing my strategies well enough. I was too inconsistent in approach. Juggling between strats. Summer leagues and euros underperforming was a huge factor but we are through that now and we have a settled plan and its working. Anyway enough critiquing myself for a day but these are all good things to share to people, its not always been plain sailing this year, but progress has still been happening. Hopefully they are decent reads
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@darri Yes I think this winter season will be a bit of an acid test for a few of us on here. If your numbers stay anywhere near these though you will do well out of your LTDs
I know they have boosted my little side bank somewhat this month appreciate the work as always.
