The road to full time
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@keith-anderson
You don't need to do anything else, Keith. With your Match-Reading, LTD and LCS are more than enough.
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@keith-anderson almost every strategy iv tested never compares to the lcs/ltd its honestly the main strategy that if you get right you dont need anything else. Im just testing fillers now to combat those betfair charges. So set and forgets that i set pre match and dont need to look at until i update my results, so that all my attention is still on LCS/LTD for late goals.
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@stuart-capstick said in The road to full time:
@darri
Thanks for the detailed response, Darri.
So, if I understand well, you allow your bank to reach a certain value based on a set %, then when, say, it doubles, you increase stakes?
As opposed to 1% of whatever the bank is at that moment?
I increased my stakes when I reached 50%; so, trades of £15 or lay maximum of £60. Now at £1700, so I'm waiting until £2,000 before increasing stakes any further.
I'm also diversifying. I've back tested a bunch of LTD, back draws, back under 2.5, lay homes, Asian handicaps etc. All look good based on at least 4 years data, but I'm testing them each for about another 100. I've run t-tests and they are significant, but they are also league specific, so open to change etc.
When I've got my data, I'll share with BTC. Time to give something back as I've gained so much from the forum. Not so much in strategies, but ways of thinking about trading.And here's me still LTD and LCS only!!
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@stuart-capstick so my old approach was stake at end of each month id then increase stakes to match bank. So if it was £100 and my stakes £2 then end of month new bank was £120 id be doing £2.4 stakes.
Now i have set milestones, right now im trading with a £10k bank, once that hits £15k then ill up stakes etc. Its just bank size. When i only had £100 i wasnt taking money out so you can afford to build aggressively. While my strategies might be aggressive in terms of late entries my bank management is defensive now.
Yep same, i like to see what others are doing but the best way to improve is find out for yourself what works and what doesnt, testing is slow but worth it and glad to see you bearing fruits of that now mate
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@darri
Thanks for the detailed response, Darri.
So, if I understand well, you allow your bank to reach a certain value based on a set %, then when, say, it doubles, you increase stakes?
As opposed to 1% of whatever the bank is at that moment?
I increased my stakes when I reached 50%; so, trades of £15 or lay maximum of £60. Now at £1700, so I'm waiting until £2,000 before increasing stakes any further.
I'm also diversifying. I've back tested a bunch of LTD, back draws, back under 2.5, lay homes, Asian handicaps etc. All look good based on at least 4 years data, but I'm testing them each for about another 100. I've run t-tests and they are significant, but they are also league specific, so open to change etc.
When I've got my data, I'll share with BTC. Time to give something back as I've gained so much from the forum. Not so much in strategies, but ways of thinking about trading. -
@catalin-radu i havent read any books on sports trading so cant recommend any but i do know many people talk about trading in the zone. I dont think its sports trading but its all about the mental aspect of trading. Its on audiobook sites so could be a good listen.
Blogs are something i read alot of. I like short sharp blogs by people i can read regularly and there was one which inspired the layout for this blog, its Mark Iversons "small acorns" if you type in mark iverson cricket trading blog youll see his site. He talks about other sports on there and how he approaches them. He is the reason i do cricket trading the way i do it.
Podcasts, i really struggle with this one, i dont like a podcast where its just one person, with a industry where its all about opinions only listening to one person can be biased. Martin and Ryan used to do one together which i used to listen to, if there are any members on here that would like to do one with me or if the btc lads would want to do one with me im more than up for that. I think PINNACLE did a really good one they are on all the major podcast sites so just search that up, covers mainly football.
Here is a link to a page on this site where people posted some recommendations a while back.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/950/articles-books-podcast-courses-recommendations/31There is some really good blogs on this forum too. I hope this one is a good one, but if you have any questions on my stuff feel free to ask. I may look to get more involved with sports trading content in future.
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@darri hi, can you recommend some blogs, podcasts and books for sport trading? thanks
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@stuart-capstick Firstly fantastic to hear your building a trading bank mate and being consistent with winning trades! Its some feeling getting to a bank milestone for when you raise stakes. For me once you go full time the bank growth is not as quick, im aiming to make each of my strategies go through a full cycle before upping, so im allowing my individual strategies to breathe a bit more rather than aggressively trade them . Which is different to what i did getting to this stage. I used to just base it off actual bank size and just upping stakes every month in line with the bank. I came from such a bad gambling habit so it took me longer than most to understand how to trade with discipline around bank management. If someone asks me about upping stakes now i would say to them to treat it like your starting out again. Forget about if you have just come off a 5 game winning run etc or you then enter bigger stakes with the new bank and lose a few early doors, each new bank level is a fresh start. Once you get to your stage of just going through the gears of you have a good strategy and you are a good trader, then its just about making sure your heads in the right place. Thats part of the reason i had to take a break last month.
But i remember starting to see your name on here mate and following along with each others trades and its great to see it paying off for both of us now. Keep it going mate, great to hear from you bud!
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@darri
Good trading, Darri, as ever.
Had a little breakthrough today, as I finally pushed on in terms of bank size. I increased stakes after increasing the bank by 50% about a fortnight ago (still 1% of bank per trade with maximum 4% liability if laying).
I bounced around the same sum for a fortnight (no real overall profit, but no loss at least), started thinking it had all been luck. Tested my main strategies with t-tests; not luck apparently, but still..
Anyway, today, made over 4 points with much the same trades as yours- late goals in the CL and Japan, as well as a FHG in Atalanta.Is it normal to get the tremors after raising the stakes? Probably. Just got to keep at the strategies and not be an eejit. Jesus, but this is a hard game.
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When you get trading days like this it makes the hard graft of learning for all that time worth it. LATE GOALS galore today and an easy game of cricket to trade.Football: +7.92
Some late game drama in the champs league tonight. Giving me some really nice green the last few days. Was a slow going past week and then all things going our way with our trades. I understand the reluctance to get on games with no history of stats but pure game reading and quality on the pitch can give some great results. However its easy to say that after a few wins, olympiakos dont score and then its just an average day. But over a long period of time it keeps working for me. Still a losing trade on ajax actually was the most annoying as i really didnt need to get on it, was also the match i did next to no research on and listened on the radio.
Cricket: +1.09
A scalping type day today. Something iv not been overly keen on doing in football but with the money over on the cricket it can be so easy to get some nice scalps of prices quickly. KKR being skittled for 84 was always going to be easy and you dont need to be using a guide like i have been using to know it was a terrible effort. The prices on offer never became viable for any sort of long term trade so i just scalped the price down all the way until RCB knocked off the runs.
Conclusion: + 9.02
Really good day, turns a slow month into a far more promising one with such a busy period coming up its good to have that cushion to fall back on now for the rest of month. Also good start for my new strategy (2.5 gls) sheet has been added so you can track the results, ill be posting the games in advance.
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So for anyone that follow my results sheet will see a new tab has been created. I have been working on a new set and forget strategy. I have been testing a fair few of late. Right now this is the most efficient one not in terms of profit but in terms of amount of games and strike rate.
over 2.5 goals. You will be able to tell from the sheets im aiming to initially back at 1.8 but im currently testing higher prices as the strategy moves into further stages. 1.8 has proved to be profitable so for now its the main trade. Ill keep people updated and say after 100 games if it presents a good enough return ill then post the filter for everyone to use. I will just like the FHG sheet post the games up in advance so if anyone wants to follow they can. Im not keen on just always flooding this thread with pre match games, so putting them on the results sheet and filling it out after the match is easier for everyone.
Target for end of this year is to have the FHG and 2.5 both in the trading portfolio to help compliment my focus on the late goals and the addition of cricket trading.
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@james-woodroffe oh right i get ya now, sorry my thoughts changed from cricket to football very quickly and wasnt switched on to what you meant
see if i can snatch a few winners tonight to cap off a good day. I keep trying to post on the cricket page but really the odds change too much so not much point unless you have a set gameplan. -
@darri sorry mate, lack of punctuation on my behalf. Was actually agreeing with you. Re scores and chases sorry if it came across wrong. I meant that at the start teams were winning tosses on flat decks sending the opposition in and rarely being able to reach the target. Now everyone seems to be batting first and scores are getting chased down. Was just wondering if we see a return to win toss and bowl.
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@james-woodroffe in the last 13 games, 8 have been won by the chasing team and 2 have been draws. Thats a huge swing from the start of the comp.
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@james-woodroffe i posted a link on the cricket page mate shows all the scores mate. For that part i try to make sure its data im going off, as a couple of times in the past week i have gone with my own opinion on what would be good rather than could hard data which opposed it. Like i say im only using it as a guide to help me judge price at given stages of games. Factor that in with knowing key players and when a partnership is likely then im hoping it will continue churning me profits.
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@darri no the overall average first innings score has dropped off for sure since the tournament started. I wonder if we will see a shift towards teams winning the toss and chasing again as the pitches continue to get tired. I look forward to trying the par score from first innings tomorrow especially with RCB playing. I hope there’s great opportunities to back them at value tomorrow as I see them winning against KKR so we will wait n see
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@james-woodroffe yep its why i backed DC today with 80 odd runs on the board, only couple wickets down and hetmyer, stoinis and axal still to come i entered. Done it on a few of the other games too. Puts you ahead of the market. Normally if i think they will surpass par score but their odds are +1.80 then ill enter and then look to exit when market wakes up for a profit going into the next innings or if they fall way into the par score then just exit for a small loss. If you look back at the link i posted not many teams have got to +80 on 10 overs and not pushed on for a +170 score.
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I might look at where the team batting first is after 10 overs and provided they haven’t lost more than 3 wickets and are perhaps no less then 75 look to back them then as opposed to ignoring the first innings. Food for thought.
? Do you look at something similar with relation to the par score? -
@james-woodroffe nice trade there, 2.0 and given they were well above average score come 10 overs it was always good to be on the them in the late end of it even with them losing some late wickets
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@james-woodroffe what im doing with it seems to be working. Using it to determine when to take a solid position in the game and then allowing myself to focus on inplay opportunities such as when pooran got going. Still early days but good signs.
