The road to full time
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Wasnt going to post tonight as only a few games and not wanting to become too repetitive with each post. Might start to space them out a bit better. Might look to highlight certain games from the week etc, as dont want people to become 1. bored and 2. not learn anything from it. Still not sure how best to post. With the cricket back tomorrow i will be posting as the accountability and explaining trades really helped me with the ipl, but football i dont want to sound too repetitive.Football:
watched the Celtic and Rangers games because had an interest in both results. Celtic are quite honestly a money maker right now in europe. Betfair seem to favour them far too often in europa games. I think its based on last years performances in the comp. But very leaky defence i posted on the football thread about the stats. Almost conceded same amount of goals in 13 games this year as they did the entire last season and season before too. Doesnt seem like the markets have clocked onto that yet for europa. Managed to get on when celtic took the lead. Game was very open and sparta looked lively as they did in the previous tie. Goal came.
Into the 2nd half, celtic were behind and needing a goal. They brought on rogic and bossed the start of the 2nd half. But sparta continued to create chances as celtic pushed on. I entered as usual for 1.75 and a goal came for sparta 3-1.
Heading into the rangers game with the same outlook, if the game started lively i would enter for a FHG. Rangers started brightly and got an early goal. Benfica then had a few chances and i felt it looked similar to celtic game. Ended up being well managed by rangers and ended 1-0 FH.
Was close to getting in for a 2nd half goal but rangers scored too early. From a trading view i could have kept watching but didnt want to watch too much more
should have ended 2-2 benfica fighting back.This is when i should have stopped. But been over keen and ill disciplined this last week. I decided to stay on. Placed trades on granada, nice and az. First 2 literally 0.1 away from granada matching and 0.3 in the nice game. Would have been a big green today. Instead i got matched in one and it was a losing one. However im not disappointed in it. AZ missed two absolute sitters and sociedad had one big chance at end too. Any of them goes in and we have a big green.
Couple of over eager days. Which means football is now underperforming on my portfolio. This means ill be super strict with games this weekend. Ideally id be expecting football to at least be covering 10points/10% for the month.
That said cricket is back tomorrow and im quite excited for it. I had quite a good routine when the ipl was on and thats when i had good run of form on all sports. Didnt watch the LPL today as not sure ill trade it but getting back in the groove with games tomorrow might make me give it a watch. Been a good start to trading cricket, looking forward to getting into other formats as i go on.
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Great post mate.
I was feeling a bit
when I finished last night because of it being a red nigh, but other than get a touch excited it wasn’t really that bad. It could have been very green but reading back over this post of yours encourages me that I’m on the right track and sometimes things just happen. Good for the mindset. 
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Red day got a bit over hyped myself with some trades could have been more defensive.Football:
Las palmas only game from a filter tonight. Encouraging start to the night.
FHGs in bayern, liverpool and ajax. Could have avoided the liverpool one, but liverpool looked all over the place and i thought atalanta looked good for a goal. Ajax missed chance after chance. Not going to lose sleep on this one would do everyday and 8/10 that wins. Bayern fhg won. If either of the other 2 had come in would have been profits galore and tbh i might have called it a night had that happened.
I didnt. Liverpool went 0-2 down and brought on everyone placed a lay of atalanta at 1.14 and then waited for 1.75 for lcs as i expected liverpool would either nick one back and would = profit or atalanta on a break. One goal would have been profit. But atalanta went old school italian football something they dont often do.
How atletico or moscow didnt score here i dont know. Moscow with an open goal in the last 2 mins just to rub salt in it.Conclusion:
losing day but take out the liverpool trades and i dont think id be unhappy with how todays trades went. Still plenty of scope this weekend. See what qualifies. With the run up to end of month i maybe a bit more strict with selections. Not touching europa league as will just be watching celtic and rangers games.
Am i raging at tonight? absolutely not this is trading, you gotta be in it to win it. I wont be negatively thinking going into my next trade. I dont know when this mindset first clicked but each trade is a new one. I sometimes like to look at my results over course of month after a losing day just to remind myself this is still working. -
Lovely return to winnings ways
Football:
Rennes vs chelsea started us off with a winner. Looked like rennes were overexposing themselves at back when going forward. Saw chelsea were bringing on players to strengthen the attack so entered.
Krasnodar vs sevilla, weird game this, thought krasnodar would try to attack more but when i entered it looked like sevilla wanted to win the game, draw would have been good for them that why i wtched the game to make sure. Entered and sevilla had a couple of great opportunities to win, as krasnodar ended up getting desperate sevilla went on to score. Both LCS and LTD part winning.
PSG vs Liepzig, similar to the chelsea game i half expected liepzig to be undone with counters during their pursuit of an equaliser. Never came only loss of the night.
Juventus was a carefully done trade. I think many people got over hyped by the game and probably entered at silly prices. I waited until juve had thrown on all key players. When the price hit my average i entered. Yes its slightly less but its a premium team and investment who are more likely than other trades. Goal came from morata in the 92 min and capping off a good champs league night.Champs league is my favourite non stat relating comp to trade. I think it can bring out the best in traders who watch games live. Hopefully get on a few tomorrow too
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@gary-brown dont worry about the amount people are making its all relative. Its why i try to make sure when im talking to everyone i talk about points/% of bank. Im sure there are better traders than me with smaller banks and i maybe better than those with bigger banks too but im consistently getting around min of 10%/10 points a month from football and around 15% with no international breaks. And lets be honest my bank is still small relative to other full time traders.
My staking is based on a 10k bank but its closer to 20k now which is when ill move to higher stakes. If average profit continues that will be close to february/march.
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this is really helpful.
By trading bank is growing at the moment Darri so im now close to 3k so my target is for a 5k bank which i think will defo be big enough to make some really money from.Can i ask is your trading bank 10K mate?
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thanks Darri so basically by the end of the month you probably looking at around 2500 profit.
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@gary-brown i did a monthly update at start of the month but here it is currently this month :
still a week to go tho so a lot could change
edit: also there has been 2 international breaks past 2 months, luckily iv added cricket and golf to help tide over those periods
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@darri
i guess for a full month Dari so maybe Oct or Sept mate.
s i can see what kind of income i can aim for when i get as good as you in my dreams -
@gary-brown for this month so far?
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Hi Darri i love your posts mate and how open you are this is really helpful and inspiring.
I was wondering would you be kind enough to post your monthly profit. I know it will be big. It is something that motivates me to keep going with trading.
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Football:
goteborg vs hacken looked a good trade when entering. Pretty sure there was at least a pen in the last 10 mins but no VAR in sweden. First time in a while iv actually wanted it for trading. So would have been a nice start to the night. Not to be. Someone said goteborg not needing a win. Pretty sure it would have guaranteed safety. Also main focus was on hacken scoring. 2nd half inplay stats clearly showing they had the better of the game. So would trade again.
A set and forget losing on reflection probably no need to have done that but its still in its first stint of being a traded strategy ill let it keep running regardless.
Wolves game was a mistake. First trade came in well when they went 0-1 entered a lcs. Getting the goal before 75 mins and with momentum with wolves i LTD aswell and overtraded it. First trade in a while iv felt like i overdone it.
Tried to get on the leuven game but betfair didnt want anyone to get on by looks of things. Not unsuspending the markets until exactly leuven scored. Would have been a nice winner for both LCS and LTD.Conc:
up and down day only a handful of games traded and wouldnt normally post but i felt it would be good to show that i still having losing days. But what matters isnt that i lost today but that im just allowing my strategies to breathe. Im not going to go panic and try win it in a trade. Slowly ill regain that by good process and match selection. This is why the long term view of your performance is better than each day. Patience there will be both good and bad, you just need to have a good balance in your favour over time. Its not done much to my overall p/l if you look at my sheets. Hope this helps those still learning. -
Nicely done @Darri how Leeds v Arsenal remained goaless I'll never know.
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cracking end to the weekendFootball:
The 2.5 set and forgets turning green is a plus with new odds having been put in place start of month. Remember not expecting big things just to be able to use more of my bank in betfair rather than increasing liabilities on existing strategies.
2 extra FHGs in the prem today. Leeds vs arsenal i think leeds recorded a record for amount of attempts or something in the first half. Inplays back up my trade so nothing wrong with it, would do again.
Liverpool vs leicester, very very similar, thought liverpool were creating great chances, jones and jota both with shots in what i consider an expected goals range. Getting that within such a short space of time i had to enter. This one won.
Only one game merits my late goal trading today. Odd vs start, both teams with something to play for. Felt it would remain open after the equaliser. The fact it was a draw at the time allowed for the LTD add on that iv spoke about. Both parts winning. Start did take off their main scorer which had they been the home side id have not entered but odd on top and at home allowed for entry. Winner in the 82 min.Quick overview of football: look at the amount of games im trading. There are far less than youd expect if you havent traded for long. You would expect me being involved in loads come a weekend. Its not the case. Quality over quantity always wins. If anyone gets anything from any of my blog posts its that fact. Also the keep it simple approach well in action here. No weird systems or fancy trades, just bog standard will there be one more goal in the game/half. Basing my trades off pre stats, inplay flow and key players.
Golf:
Didnt think id be doing this so quickly after the masters success. But another tournament and another win. Using the exact same selection process as before. This time iv waited a few rounds before entering. After round 2 i entered with 3 selections. C. Villegas 11.00, R. Streb 5.8 and K.Kisner 19.50 in the outright market. At this stage kisner was -8 and was way off the lead but felt if he got on a roll he could be handy to cash some green on inplay. Total stake was 1 point. This may be the approach im still finding that out. Or maybe i trade them individually with set stakes in future. On the final round both Kisner and streb managed to get a few shots clear of the rest and i could have left it go for bit more green but with a couple of close challengers felt safe option. They went to a playoff which streb won.
Also traded the place markets. Kisner has some unreal form in this competition. Treating the first 2 rounds as a guide to how his form was holding up he ended up looking like a tasty price to be on in the top 10 place market. Backed at 2.3 so all i needed was for kisner to finish top 10 and id be up for the tournament altogether.
Both place and win markets making me returnsConclusion:
I normally do a weekly round up of all trades but only really been the weekend for trading. Really like the golf adding to our profits this week. Its not an inplay trading angle which i really like more of a long term swing trade. I will see if i can continue this in future. The selection process coming up trumps here but not getting carried away. Always nice to be in profits while your still improving in a sport. Dont expect me to be posting them like i do in football id rather post about things i know have a very good chance of happening and with proof that it works to back up the post.
Football continues to remain solid. Loving the switch to main winter leagues now. This run up to January is going to provide plenty of chances to build on the fantastic profit iv acquired in the last 1.5 months. When you consider that there have been 2 international breaks included in that period its a great confidence booster. I hope some have managed to get on the profit -
Nice solid return to action after a international break and birthday week!Football:
Started off shaky with wycombe vs brentford. But the rest of the day all went to plan. 2 Late goal trades in belguim, quite honestly one of the best leagues as long as your getting prices to match, can quite often have god awful prices around 70 mins, fortunately here we managed to get cracking prices to match the action and pre match stats.
2FHGs in the juventus and hertha games. Not on a filter just had this as a pre planned game to watch. Hertha looked dangerous on the counter and dortmund although seldom clear cut chances did get into great areas and probably should have scored before i had entered. Juventus on the other hand were all over cagliari. All the key players i needed playing and scoring RONALDO!Not much of an in depth post or detailed one but just getting back into posting to get back to a routine. I think these simple posts help people to realise that even tho its a weekend with more games nothing should change from your selection process. Keep it simple and repeatable.
Back tomorrow hopefully with a few trades
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much needed few days out celebrating the birthday, 28 isnt exactly a big milestone but its sinking in that im very much in the overs category for x factor these days
managed to have a fair few beer garden visits with mates and saw family. Back to normality now tho. This weekend looks great for sport. Nothing coming up for tomorrow for me but sat and sunday look great selections. I loved mourinho instagram post about the international break Started to work on other projects recently and sport orientated content. Not trading related but hopefully organically you lot will come to know it. Been working on video production for a while now and this year made a big effort to produce my own stuff. Big passion of mine and couldnt have been able to be in this position without betfair trading.
Lets crack on and make november a good month with xmas schedule incoming
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All the best, Darri.
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Happy birthday, Darri.
