The road to full time

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@ryan-carruthers said in The road to full time:

Just a note as well, if you see a post on the forum that you think is great and gold - if you click the little 3 dots you can save them as a book to keep it in your bookmarks in the forum.

I only found this feature recently and already find it invaluable

Ryan

Just a note as well, if you see a post on the forum that you think is great and gold - if you click the little 3 dots you can save them as a book to keep it in your bookmarks in the forum.

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Thanks for posting how you selected the games you traded yesterday, I think it was an important learning point for a lot of us.

bottlabroon

Well done Darri, great when it all comes together in a weekend like that and I'm sure your run through will be inavaluable to others.

What is the last column on the spreadsheet you posted, It's obviously related to your entry odds but not sure what/why?

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Pure gold this mate. It really is.

Not only are you helping people realise you can be more profitable by using inplay action by watching parts of games and not just follow selections based on pre match research.

An example is the Feyenord game which i avoided due to taking your advice.

Everything pre match would say a couple of goals but watching the game it wasn't clear where the goals would come from. Inplay stats did not give a true reflection of this game as the shots on and shots off target did not trouble the keepers. So relying on inplay stats can sometimes not tell the true picture.

Please keep going with these types of posts mate its really helping us here mate!

Matt Wood

@darri said in The road to full time:

What a weekend! 100% on the late goals

So lets now go through this list of games and see why i did and dint trade each:

genk: 3-1 up so nothing to oppose
beershot: 0-1 but eupen having the better game, i prefer the team i predict will score to be on top, if the underdog is ahead then i also would look for them to be good on counter didnt really feel thaht here with match flow. I think the IP stats are not a fair representation of the game.
st liege: Traded and won: with mechelen equalising i wanted the game to continue as it was and rightly it did price complimented the game so traded. Key player balikwasha scoring
sonders: 1-0 up, strong home team, inconsistent away, key players brought off so no trade
spurs: 2-0 up so no trade
liverpool: 2-0 up so no trade
lille: 1-0 and with lilles defence being in good form at home no trade
werder: traded and won: open/even game inplay stats back that up stuttgart opening up werder on the break almost every attack just lacked the killer pass. Goal came from one of stuttgarts key players
schalke: goals too ealry
roma: red card
az: 1-0 up after 60 no trade then a red to re affirm.
celtic: traded and won: case of local knowledge and strong knowledge of the league. Lennon under pressure putting on all attacking subs. In play stats back up the entry also the price was huge for a clear fav. Interestingly elyonoussi key player scoring
granada: traded and won: very open game, in play also backs that up. In fact the game went on to have 2 more goals after my trade won. Trades like this is also important to judge if the leading team are looking dangerous on the counter, they were and scored.
norrkoping: unreal amount of goals def avoid
celje: gutted about this would have been a good trade, no stream available, so no trade. was a late goal.

So from the list of 22, we whittled that down to 15 pre inplay. In play we whittled down 15 all the way to 4.
11/13 shgs from the filter, so no one can argue im not profitable from filters i just prefer later goals with more risk reward as thats where i have personally found my edge better for my style of trading

Couple things to note and summarise:

Key players: it pays to know this info it helps make your trade far clearer in terms of reasons why. You need to feel in control of your trading to make good decisions this helps.

INPLAY: sooooo key please please do this if you trade the way i do. Between this and watching the game you can easily reduce games and stop getting involved with silly trades.

This is what i do everyday, i know i make it sound simple and its not always this easy. But this process has been consistent and to me thats the one major part of the puzzle with trading long term. You can have spikes good and bad profit wise but long term consistency is crucial if you want to do this for a living. I have my selection process down to a nice and simple way of looking at it. Take the game from the filter tak a quick glimpse of how each team is doing and motivations. Then key players. Then inplay. Then price and then hopefully this becomes a constant thing and becomes second nature. Yes there were loads of opportunities today in other games but stick to your plans, otherwise you end up fluttering money and that to me is less trading and more betting/punting. Its our job as traders to reduce risk these things help.

Excellent run down here Darri Thanks loads is a great help to me and Im sure to others as well.

Reading the theory or watching vids about the theory is good to learn but having these actual real life examples, especially when I was able to spend pretty much all weekend looking at these games as they happened, makes a HUGE difference. Means I can think back to the ideas I was having about those games as they happened and see how your headspace was the same or different. Excellent learning tool for me.

Also congrats on the streak at the moment

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@martin-walker awesome to hear that mate thats the reason i like doing these things, you cant really teach as such in trading, more guide to good processes of how. There are a few guys who keep in touch with me on this forum and i keep saying the same thing, you all know how to trade sometimes it just takes a small lightbulb moment to really take off. There are a tonne of guys now doing late goals of a similar way which i couldnt be more happy with because now ideas can come from all these angles. Im not saying im the cause for that, just seems to be a steady amount of traders going in that direction either from seeing the success of others or naturally. Me showing how i trade isnt designed to boast yes its great when days like this happen but its all about the long term, there are plenty red days too, and if people can steal some of the parts of my process to theirs then thats really all i can hope for when i try these. i just stand by that by me being so transparent with my trading that people can relate better to what im saying. Its hard for people to read a blog or watch a video but without seeing the end results/examples.

Thanks buddy

Martin Walker

@darri everything youve added here this weekend couldnt of come at a better time for me. With recent success trading the champions league ive started to use the filters i have as a guide and trade way less games. Not quite 9 for 9 but up both days this weekend using a lot of the advice here.

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What a weekend! 100% on the late goals

So lets now go through this list of games and see why i did and dint trade each:

genk: 3-1 up so nothing to oppose
beershot: 0-1 but eupen having the better game, i prefer the team i predict will score to be on top, if the underdog is ahead then i also would look for them to be good on counter didnt really feel thaht here with match flow. I think the IP stats are not a fair representation of the game.
st liege: Traded and won: with mechelen equalising i wanted the game to continue as it was and rightly it did price complimented the game so traded. Key player balikwasha scoring
sonders: 1-0 up, strong home team, inconsistent away, key players brought off so no trade
spurs: 2-0 up so no trade
liverpool: 2-0 up so no trade
lille: 1-0 and with lilles defence being in good form at home no trade
werder: traded and won: open/even game inplay stats back that up stuttgart opening up werder on the break almost every attack just lacked the killer pass. Goal came from one of stuttgarts key players
schalke: goals too ealry
roma: red card
az: 1-0 up after 60 no trade then a red to re affirm.
celtic: traded and won: case of local knowledge and strong knowledge of the league. Lennon under pressure putting on all attacking subs. In play stats back up the entry also the price was huge for a clear fav. Interestingly elyonoussi key player scoring
granada: traded and won: very open game, in play also backs that up. In fact the game went on to have 2 more goals after my trade won. Trades like this is also important to judge if the leading team are looking dangerous on the counter, they were and scored.
norrkoping: unreal amount of goals def avoid
celje: gutted about this would have been a good trade, no stream available, so no trade. was a late goal.

So from the list of 22, we whittled that down to 15 pre inplay. In play we whittled down 15 all the way to 4.
11/13 shgs from the filter, so no one can argue im not profitable from filters i just prefer later goals with more risk reward as thats where i have personally found my edge better for my style of trading

Couple things to note and summarise:

Key players: it pays to know this info it helps make your trade far clearer in terms of reasons why. You need to feel in control of your trading to make good decisions this helps.

INPLAY: sooooo key please please do this if you trade the way i do. Between this and watching the game you can easily reduce games and stop getting involved with silly trades.

This is what i do everyday, i know i make it sound simple and its not always this easy. But this process has been consistent and to me thats the one major part of the puzzle with trading long term. You can have spikes good and bad profit wise but long term consistency is crucial if you want to do this for a living. I have my selection process down to a nice and simple way of looking at it. Take the game from the filter tak a quick glimpse of how each team is doing and motivations. Then key players. Then inplay. Then price and then hopefully this becomes a constant thing and becomes second nature. Yes there were loads of opportunities today in other games but stick to your plans, otherwise you end up fluttering money and that to me is less trading and more betting/punting. Its our job as traders to reduce risk these things help.

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@james-woodroffe yep been there multiple times mate what i like to do is then make a note for the next busy day and have it in front of me when im trading to make sure im not trading that type of match again. Slowly that then starts to stick in the mind and becomes second nature. I still have the odd what happened trade but its all about cutting it down less and less each month, so that it becomes a very rare occurrence. I tend to not regret trades now as the games tend to justify, but quite honestly i feel that way only due to having been profitable with it for a good while now. Just comes with time mate, youll be fine as your starting to make decent returns now. Confidence in your own skill is your next big milestone, now that you have a good trading process.

James Woodroffe

@darri great post and very interesting to see the matches and the similarities in short lists. The interesting thing is the difference between how guys go about it and what qualifies during the day.
Had a funny moment yesterday where I had a “why would you bother what’s the point in that trade, no wonder it lost”. Moment and today will be interesting to see how I’ve learnt and evolve from that.

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yep most of my eliminating is done inplay. like iv said before the filters are a guide to help boost confidence in a game for me, its inplay and price that matters lets also hope this is a winning day when giving an example if a game is still a respectable scoreline come HT then i start to watch it from then.

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@ryan-carruthers awesome, be good to see what your thing is, because this whole weekend thing for people struggling is only going to be worse during december so it would be wicked if we got it out asap. That's why i thought a doc would be quick and easy or thread which you guys could then see and hand pick the good ones to use later on for other things. So much gold is from other traders is lost, btc academy and videos is great but there are other great traders who help compliment them on here too. As a community forum would be ace to showcase some of what the good traders on here contribute.

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Loving this Darri.
I am sure this will help people.
A lot of us do start the weekend with a huge list.

Knowing how to get rid of games, then knowing what to look for in the games left on our list i guess is the key to scrapping the losing games and improving the strikerate so we see more profit for the trades that we do.

Martin Walker

Nice to see a pro start the day with a list as big as mine

Ryan

We are in the process of putting something strong together as we speak.

Something that won't just be a huge wall of text type thing either - hopefully a little bit more interactive / self selective.

@darri said in The road to full time:

Seen people are struggling with weekend trading again. I wish i could help more and sort this but i dont want to just be so repetitive with showing the way i trade. I dont like to be a know it all and i have had some god awful weekends over the last few years. But iv learnt from these mistakes. The problem with a forum when giving good posts and advice is it disappears within a few hours and then not everyone soaks that info up. The btc lads have the academy and youtube videos which are gold for beginners, but adding to that are the cracking traders on here that offer advice too that just disappears. I wonder if having a thread/doc would be good to have like a masters guide to trading? One with people who trade all different types of trades.

I think there are some cracking bits from each of the good traders like keith, myself, bottlabroon, john folan, charles, richard futter etc that just gets swamped up over the days of posts after it. It would compliment the already cracking stuff btc offers. I see people struggling and feel like im battling to help when my posts just go missing after a while. Its why iv stopped doing such detailed guides, nobody will see them after a day.

Let me know if this would be of help to people, maybe the btc guys would be happy to have this added if people would find it helpful.

Matt Wood

@darri Excellent Darri, great to see the initial choices you make here at this stage

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So its been asked if i could do a run down of my trading selections from a whole days point of view rather than just me highlighting a trade from the list. Here is a quick overview of the games i have from the whole of sunday. (filter) and (xp) are just to help show what games are from the filters and what games are not, but games which i predict could be good if eligible.

Below is the list i have before i do any sort of research: Next to each game ill explain why i would eliminate it pre inplay

genk vs antwerp (filter)
celje vs olimpia (filter)
sonderjyske vs nordsjaelland (filter)
granada vs huesca (filter)
falkenberg vs mjallby (filter) end of season so remove
norrkoping vs helsingborg (filter) end of season but have european chance so keep and monitor
djurgarden vs varbergs (filter) end of season so remove
orebro vs hammarby (filter) end of season so remove
beerschot vs eupen (filter)
osasuna vs betis (filter) both teams out of form so no real insight into where goals will come from
brann vs sarpsborg (filter) end of season so remove
st liege vs mechelen (filter)
molde vs aalesund (filter) end of season so remove
copenhagen vs horsens (xp) wind top scorer injured and no form from either side so hard to judge for goals
liverpool vs wolves (xp)
lille vs monaco (xp)
werder vs stuttgart (xp)
schalke vs bayer (xp)
roma vs sassoulo (xp)
az vs gronigen (xp)
celtic vs st johnstone (xp)
spurs vs arsenal (xp)

So this brings a list of 22 games down to 15.

Each game iv now identified the highest goal contributors for the current season. Ill now take all these games in play and for it to qualify ill need it to have a good inplay flow ill be watching each game, the goal contributors must be playing at the time of my trade (so they can be on the bench start of game) and the score line must present an opportunity for the stronger team to score/comeback

At the end of tomorrow ill bring up this list and explain why i did and didnt enter these games. let me know if this is what you guys have asked for?

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Seen people are struggling with weekend trading again. I wish i could help more and sort this but i dont want to just be so repetitive with showing the way i trade. I dont like to be a know it all and i have had some god awful weekends over the last few years. But iv learnt from these mistakes. The problem with a forum when giving good posts and advice is it disappears within a few hours and then not everyone soaks that info up. The btc lads have the academy and youtube videos which are gold for beginners, but adding to that are the cracking traders on here that offer advice too that just disappears. I wonder if having a thread/doc would be good to have like a masters guide to trading? One with people who trade all different types of trades.

I think there are some cracking bits from each of the good traders like keith, myself, bottlabroon, john folan, charles, richard futter etc that just gets swamped up over the days of posts after it. It would compliment the already cracking stuff btc offers. I see people struggling and feel like im battling to help when my posts just go missing after a while. Its why iv stopped doing such detailed guides, nobody will see them after a day.

Let me know if this would be of help to people, maybe the btc guys would be happy to have this added if people would find it helpful.

since seems like a demand ill have a word and see if we can put a thread on purely for posts which members have found to be helpful. When its up if people could then post their bookmarked posts they found most helpful so that we can get all that on there for current and future members who have maybe not had a chance to see them.

Matt Wood

@darri Thanks Darri, appreciate all your help

My brain is a bugger for needing to understand everything I will be looking forward to your run down tomorrow, I am sure it will be extremely helpful to see what you do and as @Gary-Brown said, seeing which games you cut out may be as important as seeing the ones you trade.