The road to full time
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Seen people are struggling with weekend trading again. I wish i could help more and sort this but i dont want to just be so repetitive with showing the way i trade. I dont like to be a know it all and i have had some god awful weekends over the last few years. But iv learnt from these mistakes. The problem with a forum when giving good posts and advice is it disappears within a few hours and then not everyone soaks that info up. The btc lads have the academy and youtube videos which are gold for beginners, but adding to that are the cracking traders on here that offer advice too that just disappears. I wonder if having a thread/doc would be good to have like a masters guide to trading? One with people who trade all different types of trades.
I think there are some cracking bits from each of the good traders like keith, myself, bottlabroon, john folan, charles, richard futter etc that just gets swamped up over the days of posts after it. It would compliment the already cracking stuff btc offers. I see people struggling and feel like im battling to help when my posts just go missing after a while. Its why iv stopped doing such detailed guides, nobody will see them after a day.
Let me know if this would be of help to people, maybe the btc guys would be happy to have this added if people would find it helpful.
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@darri very nice start re the test I’m happy to see it’s return.
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The NZ test with 5 wickets this morning
lovely hours bit of trading here -
A nice swift return to form, both cricket and football picking up.Cricket:
Two of the better teams in this lpl based on lineups i decided to look to trade given no england game to trade. How jaffna managed to get to a respectable score i dont know but thats why i feel the quality isnt there in terms of reliability.
However colombo managed to get into a 50/50 position in terms of how the game would go when chandimal lost a few batting partners. I managed to get involved in the game on their side with full knowledge that russell was in later on. The game panned out well, russell starting slow with spinners and then getting settled to take on the seamers. I think he hit fernando for 23 and in that over made it almost a run a ball needed with chandimal already set. Rode the price down and made a healthy profit.
This NZ test match is so intriguing with how its balanced up. I managed to get on the run totals early doors not sure id traded that tbh more a value position.
I have LTD in the test as looking for southee and boult to get some movement with weather being patchy but not torrential. This should aid in the snatching a few like WI did in the opening start to the day. Ill keep monitoring it throughout the test and if the draw hasnt moved the way i need it by end of todays play ill reassess.Football:
Two cracking games and great prices. OB vs aalborg i had been waiting for that price for ages, seemed like a lot of resistance for the price rising for ages. Then a big jump probably because of all the set pieces inplay at the time. Managed to get matched with OB pressing for a goal. Goal came in the 78 min and i think they ended up winning 2-1 so real intent from them.
Bilboa was exactly the same situation but with vigo looking dangerous. celta vigo have definitely improved from last season lineup wise and could be a decent team this year. Bilboa with williams are always a threat if he is given a chance to run at defence and he looked a live wire today. However vigo kept opening bilboa up every attack and eventually the final ball paid off and got a winner again in the 78 min. Key player aspas scoringConc:
Couple of good trades today small selective but ultimately quality trades. Felt in total control and not a hit and hope. In play momentum backing up all trades and hopefully carry this into the weekend. Ill probably be back on sunday night monday morning with a weekend update. Will post all late goal trades on the football thread if games qualify. -
After a cracking start to the month one silly trade on the cricket has dented my profits. Got to remember iv altered the stakes on these so wins and losses are more now. Happy with the football trades thus far, weekend will hopefully rebuild back to profit.Cricket:
Sour taste after the aus game. I thought aus were in a commanding position in the match going into the remaining overs only needing a run a ball with maxwell and agar both looking comfortable. I had to leave the flat so looked to take a value position and let it run. Aus stuttered and saw highlights maxwell and agar both giving away their wickets with silly shots. Silly loss.
Onto todays cricket and i just couldnt help but watch the game. When there is no international games on or no football i will watch this. I didnt plan on trading but the opportunity presented itself, touch of FOMO here maybe. I still think im better at the better quality cricket in reading games. However win here. Saw that DAM had got to a nice position with plenty wickets in hand. With 2 set batsmen going into the last 10 overs backed them to win. Price soared in. When it comes to these situations i keep my main trade in but also start scalping with other stakes as the game goes on. Iv found this really useful. T20 especially as the markets are rapid enough. Nice top up the the profits.
This game really got me back in the cricket trading groove and looking forward to a jam packed friday of cricket.Football:
Been posting my european trades on the football thread. Couple games tonight losing which drags me down after a couple cracking nights tuesday and wed. Not sure how AZ didnt convert but we move on. Gijon are a team that hit multiple filters today in amongst these european games. Gijon dominating the game and on 65 i managed to get matched @2.04. However the heavens opened and had an impact on the match. Should i have exited maybe, but hindsight is always easy to talk about.Conclusion:
Plenty to work on this month probably the busiest month of trading for everyone. I dont have any targets for this month only that i come out the other side with at least 10%/10 points. Already feel like im maturing as a full time trader. I feel in control and have to say the actual decision to go full time came with many months after of nerves. However, now i feel good about every trading decision and adding new sports is igniting a new passion for trading again. Im glad i came back. I have considered stopping posting trades inplay but i like the transparency. People get to see the full process, from initial trade, to actually how much each trade was worth and what that all adds up to either up/down for the overall results. I feel like there arent many people doing this and i am pretty happy im one of the few being so open about trading. Especially given im pretty vocal with advice and trades etc. -
@bottlabroon I am fully restricted on 365 but i can watch all the sport.
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@darri I never took them for a great amount. It was back in my horse punting days, I was fairly good at beating SP with their early prices and they took exception to it
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@bottlabroon they didnt close me down because i was a very handy punter for them to gain money from
was a pretty terrible gambler -
@bottlabroon you just need to have money in your account i have £10 in it and it allows me to watch for past year, no active bet needed. Most of the games/leagues i trade are on the tv or betfair streams but bet 365 do have some games that occasionally pop up, plus their streams are actually fairly good ie no lag, was just a small screen. Only came across it for the cricket really but i guess there will be guys on here who dont need to have the same bt/sky subscriptions as i do, so bet 365 full screen might be a nice add on for people
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@darri Do you need to place a bet to access Bet365 videos? Sadly they closed me down many years ago.
I could possibly open an account in another name but it would be more problematic if I actually had to transact with it. -
no problems guys hope it helps
used it for the cricket last night -
@darri said in The road to full time:
Just a wee post about a thing i found for bet 365 videos. On the tiny videos click on the pop out screen icon. Once it open click F12 on your keyboard and go over to console. Copy and paste this below line:
(document.getElementsByTagName("video")[0]).requestFullscreen();
Then click the x at the top right of screen and you should have full screen bet 365 videos. Hope this helps for those who watch games live for trading and the games arent on regular tvs or streams.
Excellent trick, Darri - thanks!
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@darri sick. This will stop me having to zoom in on my trackpad every match now. Nice one
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Just a wee post about a thing i found for bet 365 videos. On the tiny videos click on the pop out screen icon. Once it open click F12 on your keyboard and go over to console. Copy and paste this below line:
(document.getElementsByTagName("video")[0]).requestFullscreen();
Then click the x at the top right of screen and you should have full screen bet 365 videos. Hope this helps for those who watch games live for trading and the games arent on regular tvs or streams.
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Remarkably similar to the start of last month. Hopefully with no int break and cricket consistently on throughout i can capitalise on this month.Cricket:
Im pretty sure the markets have been mimicked in every single one of these. ENG price drifting all the way up to above evens and then them going on to win comfortably. Its these movements thats different to football. Football always favours the fav even when they are on the back foot. With cricket its all about the match situation and its here i think you find your own individual edges. For me SA didnt pace their innings well enough. During the middle overs they stuttered and lost wickets at bad times. They were saved at the end, but SA not in as good a position as the markets suggested i thought.
I entered on eng once roy and buttler had faced a few balls. Stuttered start by eng too but their batting lineup is ridiculously over powered right now. Rashid bats at 11
As long as eng managed to have a run rate throughout the middle overs which SA did not do then i felt they had this. They did and ended up smashing it all over the park. Malan is some player.
This just reaffirming what i said the other day im far better at judging good players and with it they are more reliable. Kind of the same way as football. The more you can limit risk the better and for me higher quality games is less risk.Football:
2/2 for tonight. The new LCS as the main trade coming good.
Shakhtar vs Real Madrid, real couldnt afford to lose this game, having lost at weekend also. I saw that shakhtar had been countering almost every real attack as they over exposed themselves time and time again. Shakhtar just failing to find the killer pass on one or two good chances. Real bringing on quick players in vinicius but it was shakhtar who eventually got the goal, always a good scoreline to be getting in on.
Atalanta vs Midjytlland was literally the same scenario however it was atalanta who got the goal. Brining on some of their key players and with an incessant attack and chances i entered. Yes the price wasnt as good and was borderline but i felt it merited the entry.Conclusion:
Very decent start to december. Hopefully the changes iv made will work the way iv analysed it. Tests and ODIs incoming which is exciting for me, something new to trade. Iv done ODIs in the world cup the other year and made a cracking profit, this time im coming with a proper understanding and hopefully can improve on that. -
MONTHLY UPDATE:
Cricket:
Lots learnt this month. Saw the end of the ipl and i couldnt have wished for a better start to trading cricket. Iv been saying this a lot to other traders but id ideally like to be as active on cricket as i am with football. The potential for cricket is huge. If i can keep finding edges ill be very happy.
Couple things iv learnt is im far better at reading games the same as with football, in that the lower level stuff in sri lanka has been really hard for me to read and judge. Iv been treated with ABV and Pollard as the pros and this LPL only has people like stirling and patel. Big drop in class.
So looking at december best to stick to players i know best. I think i need to take my own advice from football into cricket. Top players are more consistent and therefor makes your trading decisions more reliable. Some horrendous shots and bowling efforts in this tournament.
So loads of high class internationals incoming and my first proper entry to tests and aussie big bash to come. Lets see if i can keep this going.Golf:
Too early to call with this, fooled by randomness or well traded only time will tell. Im researching these trades in what i would say is quite basic but until i have enough data i wont know fully how well all that is. Still some cracking results. Im not entering pre tournament so not a bet, im waiting till in play looking for an opportunity to get involved in the players iv found look good on the course and tournament. Like i say tho early days im no golf trader yet.
Football:
I have to admit coming into this weekend i was a bit deflated with football. Im at the stage now with it were im so emotionless with it. Its just now a money earner for me and pays the bills. Until its back to normal im just purely watching games for a job. I love trading but this whole covid restrictions and VAR are killing the enjoyment. I mean the scotland game in the playoffs not trading it obvs but pen shoot out your sat there waiting until var have checked if its a legit save. I dont really want to discuss this heaps there are other threads for that but the fan in me in slowly going. Watching football is now purely for work and money.
But back to my own trading. Some changes are happening and this was a bit of a milestone month. With cricket coming in i need to manage time better and some of my other strategies are not making nearly as much money as cricket could. So LTDs and my 'opportunity' trades are now very much on back burner. While they are still profitable they take up time and its better spent elsewhere.
To counter this change iv changed staking on the LCS. Which is now firmly my main trade for football. Late goals are my bread and butter and my best earner. So this should help re balance my trading so im taking advantage of my best earners and put more effort and time into them.
Set and forgets from december are something ill be keeping an eye on. Testing has been good on all so i want to see some upside from all. If they dont meet my targets ill be very strict and remove low performing ones. These just allow me to use more of my unused bank without increasing liability on the LCS too high.Conc:
Fairly solid month nothing special, could have been a lot better and the quick adapting later in month saved me. Think i was in red for a few strategies coming into this last week. Went back to basics and i think this is still a niggling thing i keep doing when confidence goes too high, i take unnecessary risks capping some extended profits. This will hopefully be changed by me making it only LCS as the main trades for football.
All sports making me tidy profits. At this rate im hoping to be at a new bank level come feb/march which for me personally would be a huge step towards confirming my decision to go full time was the right one.Hope you guys have managed to get on some trades. I dont know if posting on the forum my trades helps anyone, but hopefully its helped build confidence in some of your own trades if we both select same games. I know i used to be happy when i saw keith or other traders also on my games when i first started. I think lee and gary both think doing a overview of a full day of trading and how i do and dont get on selected games. Its a good idea. But im going to wait until i get a decent day of selections as today i managed to get a trade on all games selected.
I do plan on stopping the daily updates and keep them for the cricket, but start to pick out certain football games to talk about and do a deep dive into the trade if it wins or loses. Let me know if you want to see anything else. have a good december guys and please be careful with the schedule its jam packed so dont get flustered be selective. And also stay safe so we can enjoy a happy xmas :scotland: -
Ill save an overview for tuesday but today makes november now a very solid month.Cricket:
I almost think this was a repeat of the last game. SA getting into a good position at some stage of the game making englands odds drift, i just waited for the right time to capitalise. In t20 there is nothing more dangerous than a set batsmen in the last 5 overs. With malan and morgan both having faced a decent amount of balls i entered. Exited in the last over as didnt want any rabada specials happening. I think for me the higher quality games im better at reading and have a better handle on.Golf:
Gutted not to have made more here. Had S. Jamieson for a top 5 and top 10 finish. Also C. Hill for a top ten aswell. Hill narrowly missing out there would have been a bumper profit as he was a cracking price.
Going into the last few holes all the leaders had bottle jobs and i thought he might end up getting into the top 5 but jamieson produced a solid top 10 finish to help build the green on the golf for me and keep the confidence growing on how im selecting them.Football:
Solid 100% day today. I did say after yesterday that i had to build some form to end the month. Managed to find 3 cracking games. I found it really weird the prices on offer in the dutch league today. Normally i have alot on my watchlist but odds normally poor. Well PSV was 2.04 on 72 and vitesse was 1.75 72 mins. These are normally below 1.65 normally. Wasnt complaining both getting wins. Vitesse game even allowed me to get matched just before the corner that led to the goal, was watching it and thought id missed the chance but checked betfair and it matched
Valerenga in the injury time grabbing an equaliser. Deserved that after a few last minute sitters being missed in other trades.conc:
Cracking way to end the week. Ill not do a weekly round up as on tuesday is end of month review. Still potentials for monday so not done yet. Im hoping people are seeing what can happen when you put a small bit of time in looking at games and doing these extra tips. It may not seem like it makes a difference but its what separates us from the punters and gains us our edges. Ill also look to do what lee asked maybe next weekend when i get a decent amount of games on a list to show the process i take. Its not that much different from what ryan and martin talk about on videos but inplay will be different as everyone trades differently so could be a good thing to show from a late goal perspective.edit: might do it tomorrow for the breakdown 3 games on the list
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@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:
@martin-futter said in The road to full time:
@darri i think fhg will pick back up after the vid is past us, i'm not trading it myself at the moment
Vid?
sorry I've been watching Kevin Hart's new stand up and that's what he called it, quite like it!
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@martin-futter yip only up 1.46 points this last 2 months so pretty torrid times for it, might just have to resort to only filter FHGs going forward, see how the fhg project thing comes as it seems to be doing well purely strike rate wise
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@finn-kristensen Must be M's slang for Covid
