The road to full time
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@darri Ahh yes very obvious when you think about it. Thanks, I will now try cutting them out on my own before seeing if you have cut out the same games
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@matt-wood Hey mate! Appreciate that a lot!
yeah i failed to explain better in the last post, only selecting teams that still have something to play for. Season is coming to an end, so if the table shows a team can still qualify for europe, gain promotion, reach playoffs or avoid relegation then they will be counted. Any game involving people (safe mid table) not needing to care anymore im leaving out.
So example birmingham game today: huddersfield trying to battle relegation, so they are kept in.
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Hi Darri, thanks for all this work you put in. It is really helping me as a total beginner. I am following along with the FHG project to understand how a strategy might be constructed from scratch.
I noticed on the spreadsheet you have noted 'stricter selections from here', how are you narrowing the games down? Is it just more in depth research into the games that the filter spits out?
You may already be planning a post to explain this if so apologies for jumping the gun
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Bank start of july 2020 = £168
After a good first month back and with a time to monitor the situation in terms of how much an impact no fans and lack of football has had on teams, i will now restart looking for trades again. With seasons reaching climax, its now prime time to be using the motivation element to games. Especially given covid impact to finances the top teams now need europe more than ever.
I have posted a couple of trades i have in mind over on the outright trading thread. These wont be included in this bank building thread. They are underestimated markets. I see them more as investments rather than trades based on time for them to settle. After uniteds result last night that market has seen a big change already. I expect it to be a volatile market perfect for trading.
Please keep in mind motivation factors. In fact even tho we are only data collecting on the fhgs i will start to post them in advance to show what games im including from the filters. They wont be posted but will be put on the spreadsheet before the matches KO.
Like always ill post trades on the football thread first so people can follow along. Hopefully we have passed the doubters inputs for time being and i can continue as normal. Ill maybe try get a couple videos up for people to see soon
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@ryan-carruthers is this for the FHGs? Im only interested in seeing how the market performs on a broad view when i make tweaks. We still dont know when exactly to enter or if this has a decent strike rate at all. Like i said after this batch if we have seen an improvement then ill start focusing on price. Once i have a strike rate or a strike rate within a certain range then ill be able to spot what price to enter. Want to show everyone the stages rather than just give out an overwhelming strategy and expect people to understand why etc. The only reason im doing this is to show people how to use the stats software sensibly without overloading it, how to tweak etc, the stages of analysing via paper trading. If this then leads onto a successful strategy which i believe it will then even better. I already know how this will go i used to trade it but its far better to show with cold hard facts that something works rather than just saying it does. Nice little project for people/me.
Once this batch is over the sexy stuff will come, such as price and then also profit and loss once we know what area/time/price of the market we can see from our tracking suits us. I see too many times people just make bold assumptions about markets or are too robotic from what they have been taught without using purely the data/stats they have in front of them. Once we move onto price and p/l ill then continue to show how to keep on track with the strategy and show even more how to improve.
Its something i think will help people build their own over time. I hate the idea of people following others trades and not their own. From my experience thats when i started to profit long term because i understood why i was trading my way and when a loss comes you understand why etc. I have said this to a number of people, if i enter a trade i want to be able to fully justify/defend why i entered it. If someone asks anything about that trade i can then give a good account of why i entered. Its why i think having ONE main strategy is the best way to go. You couldnt do that with multiple strategies.
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@darri Wouldn't it be better to be tracking price from now?
You will be gathering data on the selections and working out SR, time of goal, surely knowing the prices is only a benefit?
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Example would be the la liga game today. I think the overall league is 62% for a fhg, but we have picked the villareal game based on our filter to show that there is a high % chance that game will have a fhg, beating the league average. Thats why ill only discard leagues based on our filter and our match selection
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@gary-brown yes but that will just show a general overview of the league it wont show the strike rate based on the filters we have added or match selection. Dont want to discard a league when there might still be value based on our set criteria. Sometimes we get games that pop up in certain leagues that could still provide value. But yes i would imagine as we go along certain leagues will fall into category but i just dont want to rule out without it relating to my selection criteria first. In the next batch of 100 hopefully we will see some clear patterns and no go leagues.
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Darri I am sure FHG data for leagues is available on sites like flash scores. I am sure you can find out which leagues perform the best.
Maybe worth searching on the internet for this. It will be out their somewhere.
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Added a new column to the spreadsheet for the FHG project sheet. It now shows the country of the selection. As we go on we can then eliminate any country that has a below average strike rate. Obviously we will not discard any nation after just a few bad ones they will all still be detail tested but its a easy add on to what we are testing right now. I saw keith and alan talk about certain leagues being good for them so just added it to have stats for it going forward.
Gary made a good point on the football thread about having odds/profit loss on the results sheet. I 100% agree. The reason im doing it this way is i want to just have a general overview of how this market works. I also want to see if the changes i make to a selection filter makes any significant difference to the whole market. So by adding our home scored in H1 does that make a difference on our overall strike rate. Then we 100% will start including price - profit/loss
Once we have another batch of 100 we can look to see if we have improved from last time. If we have, then we can stop tweaking and start focusing on whats actually working. So is getting in 10-15-20 mins making sense or should we focus on pure odds entry so 1.52 etc. I also want to say this is my approach, if you wanted to speed it all up you could already be adding odds etc, but right now i just want to have an overall picture of the market. Its a harder one than predicting second half goals.
Already 20 games up on batch 2, again just wanting to highlight even tho we arent trading them in money the data collecting phase is much quicker and much less tiresome than people expect. It always feels like an effort to do stuff like this but it really helps, hopefully i can show that in the next update.
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@Martin-Walker @liam-willis thanks lads! Also thanks for the others who messaged too. Iv never expressed being a guru or the be all of trading, infact iv only ever advised for people to take what pros say and adapt it to your own style. I put a bit of time and effort into the posts, messaging other members who ask for advice and doing my own trading. They are my own words, iv referenced before where iv learned either from my own stumbling or seeing how others use methods to help. I only ever post what helped me personally. If you dont want to read it then it doesnt bother me, its a forum, i do however want it to provide value to people so instead ask something you want me to talk about and dont instantly doubt even with full transparency shown over months and months.
So ill continue to post as usual, for me this was just the first of many sceptics im sure to receive. Iv learnt this is how not to deal with it. Apologise if i came across badly. The FHGs are still being updated. Ill still continue the beginners bank journey and the posts with it.
Shame a detailed guide that offers help managed to be twisted. Lets draw a line on it here and make sure any topic going forward is helpful and provides value for learning. Trading is so daunting to some. Anyone who clarifies ways/methods that helps should be able to post these.
Sorry for the spamming there especially on a busy Saturday of trading. Like ryan said lets keep this trading related. Iv always loved writing these up, not to ego boost but to help. I dont get paid anything for this
please read the posts in the google doc at the top 
Hope your having a profitable weekend guys!
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks bud, for example would you have said for people to follow me without first showing my trades and results sheet? I was just curious because the current shape of football is making results differ even the pros are having a tough time. Iv cut out almost all trading just to see how it continues. I was only looking at recently and keith and frode are on fire right now with selections so always an easy place for people to start with. If the btc which it will post profits on those sheets then absolutely will recommend beginners follow.
Day to day iv already said, iv made a good amount of the bank and therefore dont need to rush things. Iv been recording FHGs for the project on this thread for everyone. Im not an active trader i dont trade everyday, most days my games have a goal too soon for me to trade., probably why most people prefer the hustle of day to day trading but it frees me up to do other things. With the spare time iv had other interests outside of trading. But lets keep it trading related. I have cut back from trading due to odds results and this lack of fans is causing fraud data to come out like odds number of away wins etc.
If i was to have a bad run which i do, my strategy is at a late stage of game so losers are a thing. The price i take and strike rate i have manages it. I think the reason it works for me is PRICE. Take a look from the very first post on here, iv developed this over time and testing. Its not from a scattergun approach. I sat down and worked on one strategy, found the good and bad points and then focused on them. Bad runs happen but long term iv an edge on the market.
In terms of results and tracking. Iv always tracked my stuff. For me that the best part of trading also the most geeky part. i think 100 games gives you an idea of a strategy, but that doesnt stop there, a business wouldnt stop its accounting just after a good couple of months, but lets not forget the profits are the only number that matters. Tracking and recording is just a good discipline to use, its helpful for finding other angles and keeps you able to plan going forward.
Iv taken a step back from trading because of this weird state football is in, ill only enter or look at a game that fits all my filters, not just stats software based but further research. One thing is tho my football manager skills are much better
too much spare time Thanks for the Qs im the same i love talking trading, shame i cant keep the posts short and simple haha! once i start i get too into it (geek)
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Let’s bring this back to talking about Trading that’s what we are here to do.
As with everything we listen to the members and are always trying to make BTC a better place, I imagine that’s why Martin has added the sheets to the email - these have been thoroughly tested by Martin before they make it to the email list and the stats software.
I’m not sure why you’ve said that there’s some annoyance with you helping people (from me towards you), there is none at all from me there. I have developed that culture in the membership and I praise people for doing this - as you refer too.
But again moving back to the topic....
What is your day to day looking like? (As I asked before, please don’t think this is me questioning you - if you are preparing a post on this, please tag me in it when it up) I’m obsessed about trading and I love chatting to traders of all stages as I am sure everybody here can attest to, hence my questions (they aren’t coming from a bad place, a curious place - I’ve always said everybody trades differently, this is me trying to understand you and your trades).
Thank you for the comments on the strategies you are following. How many results did you collect on them? Do you track anything in terms of selections going forward?
One question I have is how many games do you anticipate with this kind of trading you will do? I guess the follow up to this is how will you stop if you have a bad month?
Ps everyone reading this, my grammar is awful I know this
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Personally the stuff he writes here and how much he has helped privately has been a game changer for me
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@john-g if you dont like what he posts dont read it simple there are enough of us here that do like to read what darri posts.
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@martin-futter Mate i dont hence why i havent messaged, i dont undertand how johns comment has suddenly turned into you thinking i have something against btc. Pleas reread when you have time, not shown anything but support for btc, including yourself mate. In fact iv only praised in the posts.
One sceptic
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@john-g why reply via private message saying thatnks for the advice? Donald trump?! calm down mate, im just a normal full time trader doing my own thing trying to get by in life. Forums are for people to share things not to just actively speak without proof. Mate caan berry and peter webb speak the exact same thing on their videos sportstradinglife says the same mindset stuff as ryan are you saying everyone is plagiarising? No because they adapt it to their own stuff.
That quote you used, iv had 2 members private message me saying that iv helped them have profitable weekends and weeks. Its not me claiming it from the actual forum.
I dont have a problem with you mate. I think you can either choose to read what i post or not.
@Martin-Futter im not airing dirty laundry, im answering your questions? Ryan asked some fair ones i responded, waking up this morning and then logging in to see someone who is only posting stuff that helped him is then getting negative comments, something you have experienced before isnt something i wanted.
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@darri @John-G it would be better if you spoke on chat or spoke to me or ryan rather than having a spat on here. John your complaints have been noted as have yours Darri. Darri if you have an issue with me or Ryan again speak in chat or email us, no need to try and air dirty laundry. Thanks
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@darri I listen to the BTC podcast an read the blog for many years, so everyone who also does that knows you are copying Ryan and Martin.
fair enough you want your own service (could you be more obvious btw) but i have seen it before and can see right through you. at least you don't deny it. i just dont think it appropriate on here to do that.
just calling a spade a spade mate. yes you are helpful but you also make a lot of wild claims. remind me a bit of donald trump at times.
one what got me was this:
'As the cycle now increases of profitable traders on here who can give advice and selections. (update: is it a coincidence this just happened again 4 months since i posted this)'
trying to take credit for this is quite simply unbelievable.
