The road to full time
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nice start for the melbourne stars! Managed to trade that game well. Brisbane crumbled after a few wickets whereas the batting lineup of the stars steadied the ship. You add pooran to that lineup and there are serious hitters in there. Already a movement on the price from the 5.7 i got this morning in the winners market, hopefully a few more results and that will be looking good.
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@darri great shout re the Stars they look super balanced and bias apart along with Perth should be the competition pace setters. Won’t have to worry about losing players to the test squad either.
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@chris-osborne yep doesnt matter too much for me as i said im focussed on the domestic players and the reason they arent favs anymore is because of those overseas doubts
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@darri nice analysis Darri - one small point and don’t think it matters too much but Bairstow has pulled out of BBL as requested by the ECB - expected to be in the test squad to tour Sri Lanka next month.
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Up far too early but cant sleep, been mucking about with the new iphone and trading cricket at weird times has mucked up my sleep. Iv been looking at the big bash markets. I did something similar in the world cup when i backed NZ at 12.00s to win the tournament. With that trade i had a fixture mapping out their progression and could see huge value in them as i looked to get out for a nice swing trade. Was a very nice win for anyone who got on that, they ended up trading odds on in the final. In the big bash however you only need to reach the playoffs. So on looking at teams im really looking to see who has the best domestic players. It was the same with ipl the best domestic players added with class overseas tend to perform the best (mumbai indians)
With that in mind iv picked out the melbourne stars. For t20 you need big hitters i think james highlighted a cracking article which showed the more aggressive a team is even if they are losing wickets the more chance they are of winning. Taking that into choosing a team with stoinis and maxwell, could you have two bigger players? Those two alone could win games. Then you look at what wins games in the opposite way. Tight bowling with wicket taking chances. Zampa looked really good against indias top t20 players. Now you take him in a domestic setting against weaker players and he could be a top pick.
When you look even closer none of those three are in the test squad for aus, yes they maybe first in line for replacement but thats something that can be acted on pretty quickly with this trade. Whereas some of the other teams will not be able to rely on these players during the tests. I know not much cricket is played when the tests are on in this regard but the constant switching between test and t20 might not work for some players which hopefully wont be the case with these 3.
There is debate on their overseas in terms of availability over the comp but any game that features the likes of pooran and bairstow would be huge but for the sake of this trade im not looking at what overseas players a team has as that puts too much pressure on them individually. So just looking at the best domestic players, while having overseas as a bonus for this trade.
Last 2 BBLs they have also finished 2nd which is the whole part of this trade i dont care if they win or lose im just looking at who has the best chance of their odds slimming enough to make a tasty profit.
So taking odds of 5.7 im looking to exit as it approaches 4.00. With these type of trades im affording a 5% stake so if i can turn that into a risk free position asap then ill take it. 4.00 is the target get that and ill let it run and scalp as they progress. I think their price has drifted to this and become 2nd fav because of the potential overseas problem in them not being fully available. But like iv pointed out below im not here for them to be winning the comp only get far enough in for me to exit for a risk free position and then monitor.
Was going to post this on the outright or cricket threads but as its a long term position ill keep it on here so i can easily reference it once the trade is won/loss.
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Quick post to show why the rosenborg game was a cracking trade and is exactly the type of filter selection id go for.
Pre match stats:
Rosenborg needed a win to keep going for europe.
Rosenborg have scored a 2nd half goal in 5/5 home games (good form)
Between the teams mjondalen have only had 1 game under 0.5 and rosenborg only 3, massive % thereKey players:
holse
zachariassen (went on to score winner)Inplay:
Massive pressure from rosenborg to go onto win the game. One team battling at top places and one struggling near the bottom.
All key players on the pitch come 75 mins.
Scoreline is 0-0 so rosenborg have motivation to get the winner.Price:
at 74 mins the price was 1.85 and quickly jumped to 2.00. In a norwegian game with a heavy fav you cant get much better odds.Adding all this up we trade this game because it fits our plans. The individual game isnt important now that we have entered. The whole reason we trade every game on its merits is to help us decide if we are to enter. Once we trade it, we are then adding it to our log term list of results. If we keep trading games like this we will profit long term.
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Thanks guys, @Matt-Wood i suppose it still feels weird that im blogging what im doing and in my mind i think to some trading can be a boring topic. Not everyone is at the same stage of trading and often it can seem irrelevant and uninteresting. Its nice to get reassurances thats it not every now and then
i setup this thread for myself as i wanted to show my trading and see if anyone might spot things i could improve on etc. I may be full time but im still looking to improve. The accountability of it helped too. Showing a p/l sheet is daunting at times not now but was at the beginning. Also got a decent message today from a member so thank you for that -
Great read this Darri
Not a boring ramble at all. They way I see it, this is your blog so it is here to help you as much as anyone else. If writing this stuff down helps your trading advance to the next level then go for it.
Whilst it might not be directly applicable to me at the moment this was really interesting to read and I am sure some of this stuff will stick around in my brain and come in useful some time in the, hopefully, near future for me.
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Took the day to try work out if my trading is improving or not since iv turned full time. Not in terms of thought process but actual numbers and if i could improve further. Its got me thinking about staking and max losses especially on cricket. Now looking at my sheets with 100 games traded on the lcs since october, shows that i dont really have bad runs. I think the worst run is 5/7 games lost. So in context of what that would be from my current staking is 10.6 points lost. Im using 3% of the bank/3 points. For me this is still a debateable thing. Iv read all the blog posts, videos, guides and seen all the tools but really staking is one of the most personal things about trading. Am i truly getting the most out of my lcs/back overs. For me i think its a case of how can you mentally handle staking a couple points higher. At 5% that would be 17% which not end of world, but this is obviously me saying that in advance without knowing how id react.
So now that iv done 100 trades iv now thought about how strategies have chances to breathe so allowing 100 games atleast to happen to see its full potential. And quite honestly i didnt follow my own advice there and upped to 3% end of november. But now that cycle has fully happened i can see the consistency is still there over last 3 months and its in line with the same sort of stats as previous 3 month periods.
So from tomorrow im looking at better ways to stake. 4% will be on LCS and 1% for the unders. I will only be looking to have a max loss on the cricket of 3% at that stage i move on from the match. This allows me to not be so strict with staking and i plan to use different staking for certain odds ranges. This will help me really be versatile on the cricket as i feel iv not capitalised on certain games because iv been so strict and its cost me when i have been strict and its gone the wrong way. Really cricket over the last few months should have been closer to points of the lcs based on how successful its been.
I hope you follow and really im just writing this to justify it to myself and make it set. Im trying to improve as a trader while my strategies and how i trade games is fine and consistent i am not stopping the learning. These changes are not forever and im thinking more long term here. Short term my bank is still going through milestones and in future, stakes will rise. I do have an end goal in mind for trading in terms of growth and these changes are with that in mind.
You will now see the streamlined results sheet. Iv really not been sticking to my rules in that regards. Iv added cricket but also added golf and other set and forgets when really my whole thing on here is mastering one thing at a time. So going forward right now im only wanting to trade lcs and cricket and have under as a set and forget. 3 things instead of the 6 i had in november. Iv also stopped tracking the FHG not sure if people have noticed but liquidity on the champs league which id say are some of the bigger liquid markets in football wasnt having alot of FHG traction and the championship was very poor. So if im to look long term i dont see any reason to waste time looking into a depleting market.
The reason my unders has started indifferently is because of this staking debate iv been having with myself. But now im fixed and with these now set i can now focus on making correct decisions and carry on the consistent profits iv made these last 3 months.
Might be a little boring a read this one but more for me to voice than to advise and actually listen to my own advice here. Basically looking for a healthy balance between risk/reward and while im still massively dependant on trading full time the projects betfair has allowed me to start outside of trading have now become stable enough for me to fully maximise my trading. I read a blog recently about not being so dependant on one source of income, so iv been trying to move some of my unused banks and % of profits towards other ventures. Iv spoken about my video production ideas and they are purely a result of betfair and given the level of bank i have now its allowing me to expand both at a steady rate. Yes this does sound like a boast but i just want to say its not a myth and you can be profitable on here, i hope by being so transparent and posting my trades you can see that.
Thanks for those who read to the end here
legends -
@lee-woodman no no wasnt your post bud, just felt people had got that opinion based on recent convos iv had, not negative convos just hints that thats what they thought, just wanted to make sure not everyone thought the same that i wasnt using filters because i 100% am just with add ons and a way of trading them.
@Gary-Brown thanks mate im glad your looking at it this way, it was a big change for me with my own trading.
@Martin-Walker Good man
it sounds simple but actually very effective, you already know my filter is basically the same 
Glad people can see what im trying to explain albeit not always very to the point and can waffle a bit but using filters as a guide rather than them making the trade on its own. Remember these are my own opinions i know a few lads on the football thread do filter only trades and well, im just saying my own way of trading and what helped me take the jump from beginner to now full time. If we all traded the same then markets would be boring. Just offering a different approach.
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At the moment im using a filter thats simply h2 ov 0.5 80% to give me a list for the day then trading very similarly to how darri describes in recent posts. Its going very well
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@darri I agree with you Darri. If you solely followed a filter then everyone will be profitable with not much thought process going into trading.
we all know this is not the case.
Some filters may produce a small long term profit others long term will be a loss because betfair adapt the probability of things happeningwith the odds they provide.so 80% chance of a SHG may happen but if you enter at half time the odds given maybe 1.16 which would require above 80% strike rate.
you may go in later but due to early goals the strike rate drops to 70% but the odds offered by betfair will take this into consideration and may be around 1.30 which again is not enough to be profitable.
long run i am in Darri's camp its a combination of filter and monitoring the games in inplay. inplay stats bot enough as they dont show a true picture of waht is happening in the game. An example is shot on target. A game in Denmark was high for SHG. Inplay stats showed a very hogh number of SHOT ON TARGET. But from watching the game the shots were from distance, the shots did not trouble the keeper. In fact a 10 year old would of saved them.
the game dispite being on Garys SHG Filter, despite great inplay stats ended 0-0 which from watching the game you could of seen this coming.
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@darri I hope you don’t think I was having a pop or misinterpreting your comments on filters if this is regarding my post earlier. I genuinely wasn’t. I appreciate the effort you put in for everyone and the good advice you offer, in fact I’ve incorporated a lot of it into my own trading. I do have a couple of filters running which do look decent for ‘play-all’ but the transition I’ve made over the last month has been to do as you do and run a wider filter and concentrate more of my efforts on match reading, pre-match research, interpreting value etc
And if the post wasn’t regarding my comment then just ignore this post
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Quick post as something iv seen suggested that some people might have got the wrong message with my posts lately. Im not bashing filters, i do kind of see where that notion has come from but its far from the case. Take a look back at sunday when i presented the list of games for that day. Most of those games are from the stats software filters i use. The reason i include other games is because i think the profile of that game is likely to have good goal motivation/threat or that i atleast predict the stronger team to bag a goal at some stage. I then take these inplay and decide.
But im always still using filters its just the process is not just blindly trading them because they are on the filter. Im just using them to help guide me to pinpoint matches i may not have included if i were to just preview a day like i do with the others. That list on sunday is a fair representation of the % of filter vs non filtered games. Its just that recently not every league has played enough matches to be on filters or iv been trading champs league games. I hope iv cleared this up a bit. Use the filters in my opinion to help guide you to high chance games and then take it inplay to decide. Including games outside of the filter based on how you predict the game will go is purely because i have experience and kind of know what im looking for in games. The same inplay decisions are used for both.
Iv traded 100 games for my lcs strategy since october id say most of those are filtered and id expect the vast majority of profits are from them too, i just have a good eye for games not on the filters too so they help add to that.
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long run came to an end tonight, happy with both trades tho felt there was plenty thought behind them an merited the entry. Ill do a run down thursday night/friday morning of midweek games and then a post for the weekend on sunday, maybe choose one day a week to do a run down of a gameday since that went down well last time. Explained why i wont be showing lists all the time dont want to detract from the reasons why im showing why i trade which is to help individuals improve their own trading with good processes. Maybe look to do them on the bigger days when people might struggle most with selecting games so might help more then.
Had a stinker of day with cricket and football so need to avoid cutting into too much profit rest of week.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
will of course be posting as usual when i enter any trade over on the football thread. Those posts im fine with because im in control of those games and im fully matched in them at the time of posting, so even if people were betting it off my post it would still likely be a good one long term
oh yeah i didnt think about this mate.
No problem. -
@gary-brown iv thought about doing a list everyday but i dont feel it would be right for me to do so. Part of the problem with lists especially from traders who have good records is some people will start to bet on these games based purely because it was on my list. Im not saying the lads on here yesterday did that with the charleroi game but its been done before and iv done it before too when i was still learning and didnt have my own setup. I dont want to be having that avenue an option based off my stuff as i want to encourage people to adopt their own slant on trades. I know its been helpful to those using it correctly but i dont want people trading those games especially ones i might not even trade myself as it is a watchlist and as we have seen about 75% on sunday didnt qualify for me. What im hoping for with this blog is to help people long term rather than just be a tipster, if you get what i mean without sounding big headed.
I will of course be posting as usual when i enter any trade over on the football thread. Those posts im fine with because im in control of those games and im fully matched in them at the time of posting, so even if people were betting it off my post it would still likely be a good one long term.
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@gary-brown said in The road to full time:
Anything to look out for today mate.
Looks like not much is coming up on filters today.
I was thinking of the following games to look at.
16:00 Leuven Mouscron
17:55 Lazio Club Brugge KV
17:55 Zenit Dortmund
18:00 Chiasso Aarau
19:00 Sutton Chesterfield
19:45 Watford Rotherham
19:45 Torquay Maidenhead
20:00 Paris SG Basaksehir
20:00 RB Leipzig Manchester Utthese may not all be suited for late SHG though.
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This post is deleted!
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@darri Thanks, that'll do nicely!
