The road to full time
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@darri that makes a lot of sense sometimes it takes someone to say something for the ahhh yes to click in lol cheers again my trading is getting there and these tweaks are going to help me go further.
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@liam-willis if the goal was before 60 mins and was not for the team im predicting to score then yes. My whole strategy is based on me picking/finding one team to score 2nd half and judging them in the game to decide if ill enter a trade. Twente game for example would not be a trade because that goal came after 60 mins. If you look at my filter it predominantly focussed on a strong performing home team so ill only care if their key players are playing etc. If a game is on the unfiltered it could still have an away fav ie the west brom spurs example i did a while back.
So yes to answer your question, i would as long as it was before 60 mins and doesnt make the game dead and buried ie more than 2 goals. I also dont trade games with more than 3 goals in them from now on either.
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@bottlabroon i did at first do par scores for each ground but found that t20 is very similar regardless of where its being played. The scoring seems to be consistent regardless. Im all about just finding easy ways to dumb it down for myself and not have to be too involved in the games as t20 swings happen far too often and id just be too jumpy if i was to being doing scalps. Positional trading has helped me combat that. Obviously it will go against me at times but thats trading/sport, but so far it has been proving a solid approach.
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@darri do you still trade a late goal if a goal has already been scored in the second half
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So there was a SHG in every one of the games posted on the list. Thats now 6/6 so far from the posted lists. As for late goals iv picked one of them and made about as much profit as you would have if you entered at HT in all of them so you can clearly see im beating the risk reward ratio on my picks. So hopefully your seeing the method in the madness and that im just picking the best ones from these to trade and capitalise on.
Goals too early in todays games so no trades
23/12 Late goals: Filtered:
ac milan
celtic
hamilton
hibs
alanyasporunfiltered:
lyon
I say about the 6/6 to purely demonstrate that while people post all the time on the football thread about strike rates it means nowt without price included. Zone in on the good ones as eventually youll be able to spot the weaker games from your lists.
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@darri Cheers Darri, I use the par scores from Caan Berry's site which I tweak a little if it looks like shortened boundaries.
I In the T20 & ODI, I tend to trade with a 5 tick offset, so in and out when the market gives me 5 ticks then re-assess and either go again or hold fire until I'm happy to go again. I suspect it's this that's costing me money and I probably need to hold my positions longer as I do with the longer game.
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@bottlabroon @liam-willis what iv found works best for t20s and the profits are stacking up is using a par score measure for the game. Alot of traders will just purely trade match situations/players. For me i need to know if a team is performing better than average. Youll find that in the t20 markets they move so quick from just a couple boundaries that you can snipe really good value. So typcially today PAK after 10 overs had 77/1 which is around par score but had 9 wickets left they should be favourites based on par score guide yet their odds were around evens and given the markets are 1v1 NZ were also even which they shoudlnt have been. Hopefully that helps explain it a bit. But par score metric has literally been the only reason for why iv been doing so well in the t20s. Mark iverson writes about it in his blog but i think iv tweaked it for myself and its working crazy good.
Also for me the biggest thing i do is positional trading. So ill take a trade and manage it. If it hits my stop loss thats it done but ill not set an exit up, ill base that on the game and on how well the team iv backed are playing. This way im maximising my winners and limiting my losses. This is why i prefer cricket to football long term as football markets arent as fluid as this as they only adapt based on a goal being scored or not.
If you want any help with the t20 just ask, the other formats im just building data and knowledge into. Im sure 2021 ill find a solid way to tackle both.
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@liam-willis that’s awesome to hear mate.
Also Cricinfo is the best site hands down for getting information they also do quite thorough previews of upcoming test matches generally the night before the match starts they’ll post their previews and you can get a good heads up just always be wary of weather over the 5 days but as a general rule you have to lose at least a full days play if not more for the draw to be a consideration.
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@james-woodroffe cheers mate i think ill do some reading up on current players ect. as for the memory its one of the best couple of days ive had,it was a fantastic atmosphere in with the barmy army. i will be going to another one, hopefully the next.
ill check out the cricket thread and start to learn it slowly, i dont know why but ive always had a feeling cricket is the way forward for trading, and thanks to yourself and darri ive made my mind up to learn how to do it. -
@liam-willis oh god that was when Cook scored 235 and completely broke our spirit before you guys spent the rest of the summer humiliating us. Thanks for the memory mate
. The guys have written some pretty good strategies to check out but if you’re just starting you can’t go to far wrong with laying the draw to start with you just need to patiently wait even if that’s late on day 2. It’s been mentioned before mate that for some reason cricket betters as opposed to traders love to back the draw so the odds do shorten considerably but draws in tests unless the match is ruined by rain tend to be a relic of a bygone era. Probably since the advent of T20 cricket batting to save a test has become a lost art. Richard Futter posts generally great previews of each test match and what to look out for. Also as the test progresses he does also. It depends a lot mate on the conditions and where the match is being played and who bats first. For example laying the batting team early can work in England if Anderson and Broad have the new ball or if the Kiwis are bowling first in a home test. The opposite can apply for example in Australia as generally our wickets suit batting early so backing the batting team can work of course that depends on who we are playing but to get a feel early doors for test cricket lay the draw and perhaps just see how the match is unfolding mate. -
@james-woodroffe ive never played cricket but do like to watch it, i was fortunate to be at the gabba for 2 days in the 2010 ashes. apart from lay the draw are there any tips you can give to trade test matches. i want to give myself 2021 to learn as much as i can about cricket trading. im currently reading mark iversons blog too thanks to @Darri.
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@bottlabroon mate, I love trading the cricket and it’s not a surprise to me that those of us who love trading it also played it to a semi decent level and know the sport intricately. I really struggled with the limited overs stuff for ages and I think that was partly because I lost the passion for it as opposed to test cricket which I’ll happily watch every ball of over 5 days. @Darri put me onto Mark Iverson’s blog and the process of waiting till the team who’d batted first had completed their innings and then taking a position in the back end of the match which has worked wonders. Test cricket is so easy (famous last words) to build a bank I’m surprised more people don’t trade it but I guess you need a passion for cricket to get involved. With so much coming up it’s a great time for us cricket nerds to really make hey whilst the sunshines. I’d have swam backwards with the white ball stuff if Darri hadn’t put me on to the positional side of things.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen yep sadly the perception of cricket is its a gentlemans sport and is a bit boring for some. growing up in scotland we are all just football and rugby, but slowly cricket got introduced and i think you begin to appreciate the game more after you have played it. There has been a huge surge in new fans because of the t20 stuff which only last 4 hrs and is fast paced throughout. I love the game so im a bit biased and play it but for me id rather watch a t20 than a game of football these days. Yep tests can last 5 days and still be a draw but its more for the die hards and super fans that watch that, sadly im one of them
I'm an ex Cricketer myself mate at a semi-decent level and love trading it. My T20 and ODI needs work though, just starting crunching my numbers for this year and all my profit is from test matches, I'm barely break even on T20 & ODI.....which is following the same pattern as the previous year. Sensible thing would be just trading the tests but I love trading the other stuff so will have to knuckle down to some hard work on the T20 & ODI.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen yep sadly the perception of cricket is its a gentlemans sport and is a bit boring for some. growing up in scotland we are all just football and rugby, but slowly cricket got introduced and i think you begin to appreciate the game more after you have played it. There has been a huge surge in new fans because of the t20 stuff which only last 4 hrs and is fast paced throughout. I love the game so im a bit biased and play it but for me id rather watch a t20 than a game of football these days. Yep tests can last 5 days and still be a draw but its more for the die hards and super fans that watch that, sadly im one of them
And how awesome can a draw be when you’re batting to save the test on a crumbling 5th day wicket! Ahhh pure art and beauty.
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@finn-kristensen yep sadly the perception of cricket is its a gentlemans sport and is a bit boring for some. growing up in scotland we are all just football and rugby, but slowly cricket got introduced and i think you begin to appreciate the game more after you have played it. There has been a huge surge in new fans because of the t20 stuff which only last 4 hrs and is fast paced throughout. I love the game so im a bit biased and play it but for me id rather watch a t20 than a game of football these days. Yep tests can last 5 days and still be a draw but its more for the die hards and super fans that watch that, sadly im one of them
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@darri I think you’re right and I remember that IPL match well. Interesting as I am normally a stickler for the 10 over rule. Maybe today I got lucky but it was thought out, and you’re right. At the 10 over mark they were around 2.45 if memory serves and then Davies took 18 or something off the 11th.
Best to have given him that little bit longer in hindsight but today I’ll take the green and remember what served me well. Wasn’t chasing high odds tho because I backed Pakistan at around 1.52 from memory I guess it’s just how I read today’s matches. Taken on board tho mate not really much difference in cricket from 3.05 to 2.45 as an entry. -
@darri said in The road to full time:
When your up early just to trade its always a better feeling when you have a good trading session! 2 T20 games and im starting to really get a decent return from these on a very consistent basis.NZ vs PAK:
NZ could and should have posted a far better score. What worked in my favour here was how the commentary and media had started to say thats a very competitive score on this pitch. What i saw was the pitch being fairly true and coming on nicely. That was very relevant in the first few overs when Boult and Southee managed to beat the bat for pure pace and bounce a few times. PAK got to 77/1 on the 10th over (where i tend to have a set score to judge) therefore meaning they needed around 10 runs an over with 9 wickets in hand. With hafeez and rizwan both settled and both destructive if they got going the odds on offer was huge value and its down to pure media bias towards NZ having scored +170 runs (normally mean the team becomes fav)
Hafeez got out in the 13th over but had got the ball rolling with runsd and rizwan was still in so no need to panic. I let it run until i could remove red for a healthy profit on pak. Then with a few overs to go i greened up fully. Never taking the risk with southee and jamieson to bowl. Really good start to the day.Sydney vs Perth:
Pretty much the exact same reasons, its pretty much also the same way i have traded all my t20 games. I wait to weigh up whether or not a team is on track for a par score regardless of what score they are chasing. If a team is needing 100 runs in the last 10 and still has more than 6 wickets ill look to favour the batsmen if they have a set partnership already at the crease. What worked more in favour of this game was i knew they also had the power surge (a flexible powerplay they can use in the 2d half of their innings) with hales and usman both getting out from poor batting i waited to see if a partnership could be built, i think many people would just jump on but its far better to wait otherwise your just trading off batsmen names and as traders is all about limiting risk, wait for batsmen to settle first. They did and i backed sydney. And like i did in the NZ game i removed red and let it run further before taking a full green up later on in game as their price came down.Really liking my fluid approach to trading these t20s and really looking to capitalise this winter on this bbl. The profits so far have been unreal considering i only just started to trade cricket properly in oct, before i had only been part time and with fanboy trades. This time im taking good positions with better knowledge of the markets. Really glad iv built my trading this way. Worked on one sport got it consistent and now im doing the same on the cricket. Please for all those who are new start small pick one thing to work on and get good at that. The rest can wait there is no rush. Those iv helped over the last year will have absolutely got this exact message from me. Get good at one thing then move onto others. Fomo is the biggest reason people dont progress fast, and the reason i managed to grow so quick (2 year to become full time) is because i took a whole year out just to master late goals (yep just one strategy) and thats a running theme with all good traders, hopefully some will take this hint.
Those cricket trade returns are really beginning to stack up - wow. Unfortunately for me, I know zero about cricket and in all honesty I find it's probably the most boring sport on planet Earth.
I mean, matches can literally take days, right? 
If they made a sport of watching paint dry, I would find it more thrilling. However.... if you can make £900 by trading it, I get the appeal. 
Well done, Darri 
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@james-woodroffe i remember a similar trade in the ipl when kohli came in for rcb who were chasing a modest total, he got out cheaply because he never settled, from there the price shot out and didnt come back for a few overs. The game today had a good over after the wicket but then 2 tight overs meant that for the risk you took you could have got on at a safer time with same odds range. Easy to say now of course but its a pattern iv been closely looking at. For me i think the risk reward isnt that safe for that time period its the same with batsmen of any level, pro or amateur. But glad it paid off for ya and at least it was with thought behind it. A quick wicket of ferguson or davies at that stage and i feel it would have swung the other way massively.
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@darri I let him settle just not as long as I would normally. The kid looked calm and cool from the outset and over 3’s chasing 153 I knew it would come down pretty rapidly off the back of a couple of good overs. Which it did they were short odds on in no time but yeah mate get where you’re coming from and I guess it’s sometimes how different guys are reading the match. Won’t become habit but the opportunity did present itself today.
3.15 when Kawaja fell. 3.05 when I entered.
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@james-woodroffe im glad you got green from it, i still think its far too risky as collapses are more likely to happen during those stages, all about removing risk as much as possible. But least you did have reason for it, but ipl showed time and time again that that way of just trading without waiting for batsmen to settle was more risky. Youd have felt worse if that had gone wrong today as it goes against your normal plans. For me im trying to make sure im buidling solid foundations and rules as to why id enter so it becomes consistent. If we just traded off batsmen getting out we would be taking risks and hoping a batsmen gets thru the hardest period instead of just waiting a few balls for him to get settled. Remember tho bud these are just my opinions we are all looking for our own edges its why i am excited to build more into cricket as its down to individual judgement for how well a you trade long term. Glad we both kicked on from the sunday antics too
