The road to full time
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Name and Shame who was criticising mate. This forum is great for me as well as others to learn how to trade properly.
Without this forum I wouldn’t still be here. The amount of people who have offered support to me is unreal. Nobody knows me and I don’t know anyone but some people on here I feel as if I have known personally for years.
It’s a great forum with mostly great people. Anybody following anyone else’s trades have to take responsibility for themselves. You guys don’t charge for the tips even though they are better tips than some guys who do charge.Keep it up lads and ignore the haters. Anyone who has negative comments tends to suffer from jealousy.
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IPL update: No trades
That was an interesting game
this tournament is crazy! That pitch became insanely difficult to bat on. We saw it in the mumbai innings slow and turning. Also happened in the first game too. Is this just the Mumbai Indians effect? Maybe but the way the bowlers of both teams played that was superb, take the pace right out of it. KKR using only spinners for the first 5 overs then middle innings back of the length bowling from cummins. And then in the chase, the MI spinners getting them out of a complete mess. Ill be very careful with Chennai. I always think this is the same when we play local stuff too, a low total although easier to catch mathematically, psychologically its harder because you become timid just looking for singles. Dot balls add up and slowly in the chase they went from needing just 7 runs an over all the way to 10 runs an over in the last 3 overs. Plenty of swings in the markets here just nothing fit my approach for this game, KKR too short all the way till the end, no partnerships formed and therefore didnt enter. Would have loved to be backing MI there for 9s but just sticking to the plans. -
@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
Have to say @Darri and @Keith-Anderson (as well as many others on here) I have personally learnt loads from your posts. I may very well have asked stupid questions of others' systems and processes but these questions are always assuming it is me not understanding something or doing something wrong.
The openness of this forum and community is one of its best assets and allows us all to grow as traders. All trades are placed at our own risk. Nobody is forced to place a trade and the best lessons are the ones learned from losing things or from things not working out as we expected.
Keep up the good work as it is greatly appreciated
Well said couldn’t have put it any better
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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
Have to say @Darri and @Keith-Anderson (as well as many others on here) I have personally learnt loads from your posts. I may very well have asked stupid questions of others' systems and processes but these questions are always assuming it is me not understanding something or doing something wrong.
The openness of this forum and community is one of its best assets and allows us all to grow as traders. All trades are placed at our own risk. Nobody is forced to place a trade and the best lessons are the ones learned from losing things or from things not working out as we expected.
Keep up the good work as it is greatly appreciated
Hear! Hear!
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@matt-wood @James-Rome yeah dont worry ill still be posting inplay, just and im sure keith and the btc lads know too, over a long period of time sometimes people can have a few jabs at times, typically when you have a losing day, its not the individual posts, for example todays wasnt that bad a post, its the re occuring nature of them that just start to become tiring over time even when you show they work. Transparency is good for others but sometimes it doesnt always benefit the individual who is posting. I enjoy being so transparent as get to show i can do this but i cant always just get the good things from it. Like i say negative vs constructive is huge. Its a forum tho so have to allow people to say what they want.
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Have to say @Darri and @Keith-Anderson (as well as many others on here) I have personally learnt loads from your posts. I may very well have asked stupid questions of others' systems and processes but these questions are always assuming it is me not understanding something or doing something wrong.
The openness of this forum and community is one of its best assets and allows us all to grow as traders. All trades are placed at our own risk. Nobody is forced to place a trade and the best lessons are the ones learned from losing things or from things not working out as we expected.
Keep up the good work as it is greatly appreciated
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@Darri i just want to cheers for those mates i found them handy to see how traders look to place shg for poitns and stuff. Try to ignore those people mate if they lose you didnt force them to press the place button they choice to knowing the risk.
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@keith-anderson yeah i keep reminding myself that, i think its one of those double edged sword situations. Im quite vocal on the forum when it comes to helping people and i also post all my football trades. I suppose the transparency angle can easily backfire at times especially after a few losers. So when i do have a few losers people are wanting to have a pop or say im wrong etc. The difference between being negative and constructive is huge. Id have thought by now that id get a little leeway before getting questioned. Your right it gets tiring and makes you not want to bother. No one asks anything when your winning them money.
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@darri getting the balance right is tricky. You’re entitled to be ‘arsy’. You’re not charging them for a service. It’s gets tiring though, doesn’t it?
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Ill be going back to inplay only posts for the foreseeable future for a couple of reasons. One people are quick to jump on the negativity train when a loss occurs/bad period. Do i get a bit arsy with it yes, its my baby and iv built it up gradually to be what it is. If people came and asked in a more open manner rather than just saying your wrong then id be more open. Two we are approaching end of season games, which means motivation for teams. Some teams are safe mid table other vying for titles, europe and relegations. This means set and forgets will need to be way more selective in this period.
However there is one thing im very happy to show and thats the dutcher on my sheets. A new strategy. Its looks quite detailed. But its very simplistic. Its just selecting 5 scores and laying the home side. These are very selective and are set and forget currently. Im gonna be trading these now because i need to actually test certain match situations with them and see if a trade inplay can help them even more, or if just leaving them is more than enough. Right now ill not be posting them for people, i dont post unless its absolutely a long term profitable strategy and with these im not 100% yet, i just know ill at least break even with testing, sadly this startegy needs me to be active in the markets to find out (always risky at first but iv done some due diligence to counter it). If after the test these prove profitable ill post them up for people to get involved. Ill most likely post them on this blog, that way people can see the progress rather than the individual posts on the football thread which dont have a long history to look back on.
The ideal situation with my trading is Late goals (inplay trade), SHG and dutcher (set and forget) and then cricket. I may look to move some of these strategies from the front line at times during spells i dont think they will perform well in. But given how tight this portfolio is its very flexible. The reason the SHG and the lates dont get on as well is because they are the same market. Sometimes iv been hesitant to enter because iv already got an active trade in only to see a late goal go in. So i may need to prioritise when and where to use that better. Ideally when building a portfolio you want them spread into different markets. This is where the dutcher comes in and is the ideal partner for lates. Ill still post the SHGs inplay but i suppose when i post lists i cant then say to people oh yeah i didnt trade that one but i did this one etc. So need to be a bit more flexible here and re post inplay to show exactly the games im involved with.
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This has been a brilliant post bro, and a classic example of why so many people are getting so much out of this blog. Quality wins out every time it’s so easy to get overawed by strategies been there done that more than once in my journey. There’s a moment when you realise that that great opportunity that just passes you by isn’t going to even up by getting into some random chasing trade to make up for the point of profit you just missed. If you’re doing it right that point will come your way when the markets and the match itself show you. It’s better to be down a point even 2 by doing the right thing than being down 2 points by just hoping this one will work cause it’s on my filter so I gotta trade it even though price and everything else is a bit naff.
On a different note re the IPL great reasoning for the trade it’s going to be a great tournament and it’s only just begun. -
A final note for today, i think next few days will be quiet anyway only really champs league and europa to trade. But lets look at today for an example or sat morning. Both periods of me losing a trade/having a losing day. If i was to go through each game id say between the 3 losing trades in those periods, the adelaide, sassuolo and everton game the first 2 games should have had a goal, i mean absolute clear chances and posts hit numerous times. But whats the common thing, at the end of this month when i look at the sheets all 3 of them will have an L next to them. Its the same with all the winners, i dont get more just because it was a screamer. I think we get too hung up on individual games at times. Yes its annoying at the time. But its all part of the process. Typically if your annoyed it means there was a couple of good chances which means your picking lively games.
Im not going into tomorrow thinking god bad start to the week better get a few winners, instead i know that when a trade comes ill take it. I might even have a losing week at times, but ill average that back over the month. Trading strategies go through cycles of variance throughout your trading process, its never set in stone when it happens. But luck happens in sport both ways and its what makes this unpredictable, but they average out over a season. Ill have plenty last minute winners and plenty one on one misses. Its what we are doing that helps us mitigate the potential risks of certain games within our control that will long term affect our results, not the day to day matches. Ill not change the process and over time, however long that maybe, ill average growing the bank even when losing days occur. Dont go chasing this and dont expect to win everyday. End of the week/month/year a match is just a W/L in the book, youll forget all about it after a month. Today was proof that i still have losing days, in fact my strike rate for lates is aimed for 65-70%, thats more than likely going to result in a few losing days, so i need to manage that well to make sure im not over staking or worrying about them.
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@darri Yes this was totaly me a few months back. Go through the week learning strategies and building my bank. Then a Saturday would come and you're like a kid in a toy store. Oh I'll pick that one and that one and that... One Sat I make 8-9pts, how great it this I say. Sunday I end up -9 or 10 pts, weekend a bust. Now I know it has to be quality not quantity.
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@daniel-mills its not very surprising that most people who are newer to trading do better midweek when they do focus on a game, yet when its a weekend with loads on they trust too heavily on their list in a busy period. Same with summer and winter leagues trading, always see people doing better with the spaced out summer leagues than busy december trading. For me a weekend shouldnt be different to any other day. Same process same consistency. I wasnt sure if the post i did showing how good the weekend was would go down that well tbh, cause i know not everyone did well. Took me a while to realise how to manage myself and my strategies at weekends. But the most common theme seems to be that i trade much less than the norm, which allows me to focus on those selected games more. So the old saying less is more crops up again.
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+1 on that. Great read. Quite an easy one to forget about value, especially when there are loads of games on at the weekend.
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@james-rome thanks mate, this was another one of those posts when typing didnt feel long, clicked submit and boom takes up a whole page
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@Darri very good read this mate...thanks for posting
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Example: inter vs cagliari
All pre match stats suggest a goal will be scored in the 2nd half of this game. Inter are needing to keep winning for the serie a title. Its 0-0 at HT so you know that its a motivational scoreline for them to try. Lukaku is playing and then martinez comes off the bench, so both key players are now on. The inplay stats look good or if watching inter are pressing. You line all that up and believe this game adds value to your current strategy as its ticking all the boxes. You then finally consult the price. The price is where you want it. When you set a price give yourself a good margin for error. Just because you think this has a 50% of happening no point just getting on at 2.04 theres little room there. Try get in for 2.10/2.2. For me i felt this game had around a 65-70% chance of a goal, thats based on: my testing, this match situation, all the stats/key players and time left.The trade ended up being a back of 1.65 which means the market thinks it has a 60% chance, i thought it had a 65-70% so there is a 5-10% difference here. Massive margin for error. Now not all these games will have such a margin for error and its those decisions on whether you take that separate us from gambling and trading. Managing risk and avoiding fomo. These are two topics that affect everyone early stages dont think others havent experienced that too, learn from it and listen to the advice from btc lads and the other good traders on here. Sometimes i do believe you gotta hit a bad patch to truly understand how to trade, its not always that easy just listening to what someone is saying like this blog. Risk management is so key to all this. Adding strategies that havent been tested or are hunches is gambling, dont be fooled into chasing a bank thats just as bad as chasing losses. But ill save risk management for another day.
Could i have lost that inter game, YES, but long term i know that if i keep getting in on these type of games and prices that long term ill win more to cover the losses and grow the bank. Im not undefeatable in fact i can go on a bad run, these are part of trading. We saw at the weekend a howler of a miss in the aus game, can i control that no? Was that game matching all of the above to be a good indicator yes. Its not always about being right, its about being right enough times to be profitable. There is no sure thing in sport.
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Just speaking to someone about this and thought id jot it down here. Whats the difference between what i do as a trader compared to gambling. Really the question here is whats a gamble and whats a trade.
Gambling:
Its based on opinions. I believe man city will beat west brom etc. Another example which i think hazes judgement from traders and gambling is basing a bet just on price. So say we see man city vs leeds at the weekend. A game we suspect man city will win. They are priced pre match at around 1.36. A gamble here is just betting on them here with no thought behind it other than we think man city should win that. They LOST, upsets happen even with leeds down to 10 men. There is no edge here in your opinion versus the market. Youll basically be battling forever winning sometimes and losing sometimes, with not much consistency. Bayern drew with union berlin when a title fight is still ongoing.Trading:
Its based on however many variables you like to look at or you find to be a good indicator for your strategy to work. For me with 2nd half goals im looking at pre match stats trying to see if i can spot trends of 2nd half goals. Im looking for the key players playing, no lewandowski for bayern no surprise they didnt win at weekend
so would getting on bayern have been a gamble? yes, do gambles still win, yes but long term youll be battling too hard. Im looking for match situations to develop. That could be the score line, do the home team who are behind start to press for a goal and leave themselves vulnerable to the counter. That could be inplay stats/watching the game, is it an open game etc. I then test my strategy and record how they do. I then tweak that until im happy with it. This means when im looking at a game i know this has a greater chance than other games currently being played. I then know what strike i need to be profitable and at what odds, i also then know if this thing is profitable long term not just for that day/week/month. Then the biggest difference between the two, price. Judging price. Iv been trying to tell a few guys recently to stop looking at prices as just numbers or money signs. Start looking at them as % chances. You take what your testing has said is your % chance and you compare that to what the market is offering and if your is better take it. This is where your margin of edge is decided, taking better prices than what the actual % chance of that event happening, how do we calculate what that % chance is? by using all the above and then deciding based on everything what price your wanting to take and then compare it to the market. You have to try beat the market.I know i often make things sound simple. It because iv put a lot of work into that. Iv also put a lot of work into things that arent worth it. So thats why i try help people focus on what is worth it. If you have read the book the subtle art of not giving a f... then youll know that you dont need to care about things outside your control. Its one of those hard realisations for people that this isnt a get rich quick scheme and work is needed if you want to crack it. Iv said it before this forum gives you everything you need. Strategies and advice take it onboard. It cuts all that learning curve way down. But you still have to find out how to manage it all. Start small, avoid fomo and dont gamble. Stop trying to RUSH all this, the hail marys some people are doing to chase is the bank growth is so costly. Just look at my sheets. Using the bank with manageable staking adds up its only been 4 weeks and already nearly 60% increase, could that have also been 120% 240% with much higher risk yes, but long term can i always manage that risk absolutely not. I do some of the most basic trades going, dont think the only way to achieve growth is from some fancy type trade. The best trades are the ones you can repeat and repeat every day with the same level of consistency.
The technicalities of what is a bet and a trade does not matter. Id class myself as a value bettor based on the set and forget nature of how my trades are won and lost. But there is thought, stats and extensive testing behind all that i do, i believe that is the difference between gambling and trading. There are more good traders than gamblers, its why the bookies are minted and why there are so few exchanges because this stuff takes work to get good at.
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IPL update:
Royals vs Kings: +2.15 points/+2.15% of bank
The routine gets brought into full affect here. During the week with no football trades to disrupt the trading i can watch the opening innings of the ipl. Thats just how im planning on doing these while the ipl is on. So weekends are chasers innings only. Boy im glad this one was on the midweek games. Kings getting the highest total this season. Using my sheet i saw that this was the highest its been at a 15 over mark and i wanted to start looking to build on what was very nice odds of 1.52 on them still. The markets are very scared right now to swing too much in favour. But with a target score of around 210/220 i felt with that pace attack they would defend it. The royals are renowned for that chase last year with stokes getting them going. Not today. Both he and buttler out far too early. It took a gigantic effort from samson and i think he had big balls trying to keep strike instead of take a single on the 2nd last ball. Great catch and a winning trade. Ill probably look back at this game in a few weeks as a good indicator because i think scores could be averaging alot more this year. I think last year 180 was a good par score, i think this year 190 puts you in a good position.
