The road to full time
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@darri nice work great start to the day also for me with the T20’s this morning and yes getting out of bed early is worth it when profitable. As a general rule I will always wait till the new batsman is set following a wicket however today I believed it was a market over reaction following the wicket of Uzzi and normally will have given it a bit more time however. 153 was terribly below par in Canberra however so I entered earlier than perhaps I normally would have however I believed I was taking advantage of an over reaction and in the end I was right as Sydney cruised home. Nice to have some green screens after Sunday.
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@darri thanks.
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@martin-walker for the unfiltered games all i do is look at flash scores and look at my fav leagues. From them i see what the top games are for the day. So today juve a strong home team who need to win to keep pace with milan are playing a weak away side. Just looking at the lists and seeing is there a fixture that stands out that looks like one of the better teams has a good motivation/form compared to their opposition. Its also because i feel i can pick games from experience that i believe will have goals in them. Ill then take them inplay and see if im right and then decide from there. However if i have a substantial list from the filters ill just trade them and forget the others.
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When your up early just to trade its always a better feeling when you have a good trading session! 2 T20 games and im starting to really get a decent return from these on a very consistent basis.NZ vs PAK:
NZ could and should have posted a far better score. What worked in my favour here was how the commentary and media had started to say thats a very competitive score on this pitch. What i saw was the pitch being fairly true and coming on nicely. That was very relevant in the first few overs when Boult and Southee managed to beat the bat for pure pace and bounce a few times. PAK got to 77/1 on the 10th over (where i tend to have a set score to judge) therefore meaning they needed around 10 runs an over with 9 wickets in hand. With hafeez and rizwan both settled and both destructive if they got going the odds on offer was huge value and its down to pure media bias towards NZ having scored +170 runs (normally mean the team becomes fav)
Hafeez got out in the 13th over but had got the ball rolling with runsd and rizwan was still in so no need to panic. I let it run until i could remove red for a healthy profit on pak. Then with a few overs to go i greened up fully. Never taking the risk with southee and jamieson to bowl. Really good start to the day.Sydney vs Perth:
Pretty much the exact same reasons, its pretty much also the same way i have traded all my t20 games. I wait to weigh up whether or not a team is on track for a par score regardless of what score they are chasing. If a team is needing 100 runs in the last 10 and still has more than 6 wickets ill look to favour the batsmen if they have a set partnership already at the crease. What worked more in favour of this game was i knew they also had the power surge (a flexible powerplay they can use in the 2d half of their innings) with hales and usman both getting out from poor batting i waited to see if a partnership could be built, i think many people would just jump on but its far better to wait otherwise your just trading off batsmen names and as traders is all about limiting risk, wait for batsmen to settle first. They did and i backed sydney. And like i did in the NZ game i removed red and let it run further before taking a full green up later on in game as their price came down.Really liking my fluid approach to trading these t20s and really looking to capitalise this winter on this bbl. The profits so far have been unreal considering i only just started to trade cricket properly in oct, before i had only been part time and with fanboy trades. This time im taking good positions with better knowledge of the markets. Really glad iv built my trading this way. Worked on one sport got it consistent and now im doing the same on the cricket. Please for all those who are new start small pick one thing to work on and get good at that. The rest can wait there is no rush. Those iv helped over the last year will have absolutely got this exact message from me. Get good at one thing then move onto others. Fomo is the biggest reason people dont progress fast, and the reason i managed to grow so quick (2 year to become full time) is because i took a whole year out just to master late goals (yep just one strategy) and thats a running theme with all good traders, hopefully some will take this hint.
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@darri hi darri, how do you go about picking your unfiltered games. Im having success with using a filter and just picking a few premium games. Was wondering how you did it. Thanks
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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:
Posting here or on the live thread, both are good for me to learn.
Seems though that doing it here you can take your time a little more and add some extra info so maybe here is better. Bottom line though do whichever you find better for yourself.
Good to see the wins back after the weekend
Pretty much agree with Matt here ultimately you have to do what is right for you.
As someone trying to improve, I like the way you explain your trades at the end of a session rather than just posting in the football thread.
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@john-hunt thanks mate, really appreciated
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@darri mate you’re a legend with you’re posts, really thoughtful trader and it’s refreshing. So a big thanks just for taking the time. Nice one mate.
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nice work guys seems everyone had a rather good return to form for a monday, hopefully that was just bad variance for our given strats, seems most of us traded late goals at weekend had a dull weekend. Only a handful before xmas so trade safe and within your limits guys.
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22/12 watchlist:
Filtered:
twente vs rotterdam
Unfiltered:
juve vs fiorentina
psv vs venlo
galatasaray vs goztepeJust like yesterday this is just a watchlist and not to be traded blindly, i will update tonight what games i did and didnt trade and why (dont worry i wont do this disclaimer all the time just emphasising as its day 2 of posting lists without me then posting which ones i get on inplay so have less control of what people might follow)
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Nice work mate, had a nice night also with 2 points green at Chelsea was nice and relaxed and calm in my mindset after Sunday. LCS on 73 mins same thought process as you which is encouraging and goal came on 78 before the 3rd on 80.
Great work and good to see you back in the green after Sunday also. -
Posting here or on the live thread, both are good for me to learn.
Seems though that doing it here you can take your time a little more and add some extra info so maybe here is better. Bottom line though do whichever you find better for yourself.
Good to see the wins back after the weekend
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Chelsea and wolves for me, back to winning ways
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@darri interesting i got in on the hamburg game on lcs and backing hamburg at exact same time 75th but on inplay stats alone, glad im picking out same games
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This was more like it after a pretty below par weekend. Let me know if you prefer this to live trades:From the filter:
konyaspor NO TRADE:
game was pretty dead and more importantly konyaspors top scorer not playing.
Chelsea TRADED +2.96%:
1-0 up and west ham giving good account, cheslea had started to get some good counters but werner unable to convert ashame he looks so unconfident right now if he gets going in the prem chelsea will def be contenders in future seasons. Game nice an open so good potential for a goalUnfiltered games:
karlsruhe vs hamburg TRADED +4.88%:
Was watching the karlsruhe vs hamburg on bt sport, looked a good game, hamburg creating plenty chances. I entered on 75 mins, red card came a few mins after which didnt bother me as hamburg were the reason i entered the trade. Key player terodde scoring. Really liking the ltd odds im looking at now compared to before. Like iv said nothing has changed in terms of when i enter or why it just im getting better chances to make more money on exact same trade. I am still monitoring if not trading out would be a better return for this strat, take today for example the fav goes ahead and i traded out but left almost a whole points profit go. I do think its a mental thing and ill not know until enough data as right now id be annoyed if it ended a draw after my thoughtful trade was right but ended up wrong because of greed.Days end: +6.77%
Felt a bit weird not posting these live, but i think im doing it for the correct reasons. Im here to help people build their own trades and strategies and not just follow all my trades/rely on mine to make profit. I and other may not always be around so thats why i want to help people so they can be the ones posting etc. We are seeing a fair few of football thread posters who i have helped come good and that is more rewarding for me and im sure the btc guys too than one of us just posting a winning ltd trade.
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@darri oh I hear you mate, but at least that’s the day night test done and dusted. I dunno how we will cope on Boxing Day with a 10pm 11pm and 8am first ball but if we profitable we will find a way
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@james-woodroffe yep exciting time of year for cricket but also a pain for my sleep
southern hemisphere timezones are a killer for an aberdonian -
@james-woodroffe yep cricket has very quickly matched what my football trading does, if only there was more cricket than football id be rich
but im really happy with how both sports are doing, i wouldnt be in as good a position without either these past couple of months. But i can def see long term when my bank grows cricket will be my sport to focus on more as i trade more there, because in theory cricket is about opinions in determining the markets, but football is more mechanical with markets. So you get rewarded for having good thoughtful trades.Im only thankful to football for getting me this far and as iv said id like to become more set and forget, which is totally different to how i trade right now. Iv found my edge is better when being involved more in the games ie watching etc but as my bank grows im veering more towards looking to cut back the effort and just accept the lesser returns (more automated) with things like getting in at certain times. YES this is completely opposite to what i preach all the time but the reason i post those things it because i have found them to make my trading better, all about optimising your profits. Its how iv aggressively managed to build a bank to full time level in 2 years, but i can slowly see the benefit of just taking a slight reduction and have a less engrossing view on trading football.
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@darri As Richard says mate nobody ever went poor laying the draw in test cricket. You gotta do what’s best for you in regards to the forum and live trades. A lot of us have learnt so much from the pro guys and are able to take what we’ve been taught by you and other pros to make a real go of it going forward in 2021. I dunno if it was just today and the variance but regardless for me I see so much more potential and future profit in the cricket also and will be looking to just focus on that before the tennis returns in the new year (if it does) I think you and Lee I think it was without double checking may have well hit the nail on the head today in regards to player fatigue and the lack of a off season etc.
Thanks for everything bro, have a great Christmas and hey 3 test matches starting from Friday and can’t wait. -
So 21/12
SHG/Late goals list:
Konyaspor vs sivasspor
chelsea vs west hamTrade them how you want, the filter works for 60 min onwards from testing but obviously please use inplay to decide if you enter. I update at end of day to see what i did and didnt trade and detail why for each game. Think this will help more than just a live game post.
