The road to full time
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@darri Another great post Darri, learning a lot from these and the BTC YouTube videos
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Big day today for me with cricket and football, im really looking to end this year well so ill probably not have time to do a list today and go through it. Really tho iv done it twice now and each time there are clear trends on why i would and wouldnt trade a game. There is a large amount of games on people filters now that most leagues have a good amount of games played. Please re read those posts to make sure you have plans in place to tackle today and only look for the best ones. Its days like this when i question those that have so many strategies, how can you feasibly manage a day like this. It so inefficient. Its why i only care about LCS/Late goals now in football everything else thats not set and forget becomes a distraction of my focus on my main strategy. I have said this far too often but One Strategy is all you need and if you take the time to go master one strategy and one sport at a time in my mind you have the right mindset. Thats exactly what i did, 1 year out purely for football and master the late goals. Specialise in a area of the market you feel you have an edge in and build a massive dent in it. You probably think i seem a know it all in trading, but really im only knowledgeable in one area of the market, but its the only area i need. Dont try be a jack of all trades focus on being the best at one.
The hardest thing at the beginning esp on a forum is to not give yourself too much to learn. So many trades and strategies on here try to zone in on one. Fomo is hard when you see people posting winning trades but only focus on yourself at the beginning. Im now at a stage where im sharing my stuff because iv reached a level im happy with, but go soak up all the info you need on one main strategy i honestly cannot stress the less is more approach also is relevant to the amount of strategies and sports your trade.
I see myself in a years time only being a late goal and cricket trader. If your doing more than that and your still in the learning phase your doing too much in my opinion. Its like building a business. You dont just open a chain of places/shops without having a solid base from which to expand in the future. No you start with one, make it your flagship, learn the mistakes to avoid for next time, make this consistently profitable, maximise profits, then take all this info and make your next even better. That for me is probably one of the bigger reasons iv grown so quickly. I dont think there are many traders who have gone full time within 2 years or built a bank as quick in 2 years, but this is why im trying to show that its possible this way. Just be careful with some advice people give, if they have proof to back up their claims then listen but not everyone is transparent and for me that raises questions. I hope my transparency shows this approach. I mean look how bad or inefficient i was at the start of this blog
but the growth in the last year has been huge once those "lightbulb moments" hit.This is why i want to build that 1.5 shg filter to show that process so its not just a blob of text
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@martin-walker yep one of the reasons i do all these extra things isnt just to avoid losses but to maintain consistency in selection of games. Your gonna have losses mixed in there too but the fact your only selecting games if they fit the entire process is the sole reason i profit each and every month with a good strategy. In your case maybe over confidence got in the way and you began to felt untouchable iv been still doing that along the way but as soon as that happens i make damn sure i revert back to the whole plan. This is where the discipline element starts to be the sole thing. You have found a profitable strategy which is the hardest part, now you just have to turn consistent with it. Its this stage you start to think about upping stakes and looking to jump to next stages of banks too quick because you have a good profitable strategy. You just have to remain disciplined and let the trading journey happen. Im sat waiting to hit 20% more of my bank before my next stake increase, on average thats what i make in a month, im not rushing to it im just maintaining discipline and thinking long term.
Your doing fine mate and there are plenty games this month for you to make sure you remain consistent and end the year in a good frame of mind. THE GOOD thing is YOU know why and know how to change it from what you have said plans and sticking to them. Im very tired this morning and maybe have given a poor reply but trading cricket has ruined my sleep
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After racing to a 13 point profit this month i completely fell apart yesterday. Had 5 losers and 1 loss friday night. Looking back it was all avoidable if i put the practices you talk about in to play. I normally do but got sloppy yesterday. Picked poor quality games and didnt watch some of them. Need to jump on top of this now as when i do all the work beforehand i clearly do much better.
Looking to write a checklist i MUST follow before entering any trade.
This isnt even that much extra work considering i only do maybe 2 trades a day. Just very lazy work from me yesterday. Still 10 points up due to some good trades in there aswell. When not really trading directly from a filter i need to keep my mind locked in on process somehow -
so someone else has also asked about why im choosing 70% as it might seem random to to choose that amount. The reason being i want to be able to get a good array of matches towards to higher end of the leagues in question. If i go higher im bordering on not getting enough of a feel for how the market behaves overall. This is not the final filter we saw that with the fhgs we add to this when we spot trends in our data. Id also like to say we are not set on how exactly we wish to trade these, there is so much to go through in testing this so just be patient. If the strike rate or p/l looks dreadful after round one then its as we should expect because if its in profit end of this then i believe that would fall in the category of randomness and purple patches. But hopefully after a round of testing we might spot the tweaks needed to improve, and thats the whole point of this is to show how i go from idea to full strategy. While i may not take this into my trading all we are trying to do is build a filter that will help us pick out these games for the strategy. At that point its upto the individual to use it as they wish either straight from filter or with inplay.
Stage one so enough talking about it we have plenty of data collecting to do first. Ill report back with a detailed update after 100 games and see what its looking like. I expect that will be a pretty big post
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@bottlabroon fair enough but we will build on that, there are several stages of data colleting to go before we have something set to even remotely put money towards
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@darri Not knocking it mate, just trying to demonstrate the challenge faced on filters alone. The 0-0 and underdogs winning at HT performs less than the mean on all matches filtered from the leagues.
On every data set I’ve pulled over the years for SH goals the 0-0 HT matches under perform to the mean. I suspect it’s because a lot of the matches are less open at the start of the SH.
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@bottlabroon lets just see, as i said in the write up this is market overview, and we wont be touching every game in the leagues mentioned just the best ones. So try hold back assumptions from macro data set just now. Once we have the data and i can see it in full then stage two is optimisation when we narrow and double down on what works and scrap what doesnt. Cant just dismiss from market overview stage just because the filter overall doesnt perform if it were that easy we would all be rich and automating everything.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
So iv been wanting to think of a replacement for the FHG project and into a market that has potential: enough liquidity.
Iv been looking around the forum and seen a few people try to do this over the past year. So i thought id see if we can work on a filter based project which isnt to say we are purely trading from filters but just looking to find a solid filter that helps us find likely games for the said strategy.Here is my strategy i think we can crack together: 1.5 Second half goals (SHG)
Leagues: top league in all these countries:australia, belgium, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england, france, germany, italy, japan, holland, norway, poland(test this for liquidity), portugal, romania(test liquidity), scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea, spain, sweden, swiss, turkey, usa.
The stages of building are same as FHG and given the strategy will be tested and built easier as more games will qualify for the strat. I want to do this to give the readers of this blog an idea and show how i went on to build my own strategy.
Stage 1: market overview
Stage 2: optimisation
Stage 3: money test
Stage 4: beta/this is when the filter is ready and to be used as one wishes either pure filter or as a selection method to then hunt down good games within (my method)Hope this helps and you can follow along i promise ill complete this one. Dont have anything else distracting me like last time when i got too involved with trading and thinking of doing my own stuff, im content on here now and happy with whats going on here. Ill add a sheet so you dont personally have to track this. What i will do is track odds at HT as clearly people got the humpf last time when i didnt do that
even tho there was no need for it.So as you can see its basic as hell right now the best way to start. All we are doing here is finding what stat inputs we need for the overall market. Keeping it to h2 1.5 at 70% will allow me to find out what value this needs to be at. And allow me to see what the market looks like overall in terms of how many goals are scored when the first goal goes in etc.
To start with im putting these limits in place: 0-0 or underdog winning, if fav is winning or its 1-1 i will not be entering. need a degree of motivation. There are no looking at any other things right now its purely about finding the strike rate of the market overall. So we get a feel of whats needed.
From 10/03/2019
Leagues as specified
H2 70%+
0-0 or underdog winning at HT307 qualifiers
Over 1.5 SHG = 148So just less than 50% winners and given certainly those games with the favourite losing will almost certainly be below 2.00 at HT, I fear this one might need a bit of work on filters alone.
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@darri Looking forward to seeing how this plays out and the relevant steps you go through to hopefully create a profitable filter
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@darri Great stuff Darri. Really be good to see this whole process from start to finish and hopefully will teach me how to do this with my own ideas too
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So iv been wanting to think of a replacement for the FHG project and into a market that has potential: enough liquidity.
Iv been looking around the forum and seen a few people try to do this over the past year. So i thought id see if we can work on a filter based project which isnt to say we are purely trading from filters but just looking to find a solid filter that helps us find likely games for the said strategy.Here is my strategy i think we can crack together: 1.5 Second half goals (SHG)
Leagues: top league in all these countries:australia, belgium, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england, france, germany, italy, japan, holland, norway, poland(test this for liquidity), portugal, romania(test liquidity), scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea, spain, sweden, swiss, turkey, usa.
The stages of building are same as FHG and given the strategy will be tested and built easier as more games will qualify for the strat. I want to do this to give the readers of this blog an idea and show how i went on to build my own strategy.
Stage 1: market overview
Stage 2: optimisation
Stage 3: money test
Stage 4: beta/this is when the filter is ready and to be used as one wishes either pure filter or as a selection method to then hunt down good games within (my method)Hope this helps and you can follow along i promise ill complete this one. Dont have anything else distracting me like last time when i got too involved with trading and thinking of doing my own stuff, im content on here now and happy with whats going on here. Ill add a sheet so you dont personally have to track this. What i will do is track odds at HT as clearly people got the humpf last time when i didnt do that
even tho there was no need for it.So as you can see its basic as hell right now the best way to start. All we are doing here is finding what stat inputs we need for the overall market. Keeping it to h2 1.5 at 70% will allow me to find out what value this needs to be at. And allow me to see what the market looks like overall in terms of how many goals are scored when the first goal goes in etc.
To start with im putting these limits in place: 0-0 or underdog winning, if fav is winning or its 1-1 i will not be entering. need a degree of motivation. There are no looking at any other things right now its purely about finding the strike rate of the market overall. So we get a feel of whats needed.
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I just want to make this a bit clearer for those as to why i do all these extra things like key players, form etc on top of the filters. Its because im trying to limit risk on any game. Using the idea that im looking for reasons not to trade a game and if i cant see a glaring reason not to ie my pre match thoughts/plan arent being backed up inplay/price then there is zero reason i shouldnt trade that as the more games i find to fit the more profit ill make long term its that simple.
But i saw on the forum before and im not getting involved but on the topic of once the trade is placed what happens? Thats out of your hands as a trader. On the late goal strategy its really unwise to exit as the odds are always going against you and goal happen late on far more often than you think i hope im proving that. But i wanted to make clear the reason i do all these things is purely to decide if i enter a trade, once iv entered i dont care what happens in the game iv done all i can to make sure its as low risk as i could have made it. Some people dont do as much as i do before a trade but thats because if i personally didnt have these limits i would be too hyper in the markets. So instead i use these tips and tricks to help manage that and look for reason not to trade games. If a game turns sour and becomes boring well it wasnt at the time i entered, red comes wasnt when i entered. Its all about finding reason to trade at the time. That villa game for example was a last minute pen was that luck? does it matter? For me once i place a trade it then just becomes part of my overall strategy and is just a number end of the month anyway. Thats when emotional trading is different to professional trading. The less emotion the better thought goes into it. That for me is one of the bigger differences between punting for fun and trading/value betting
This is purely for late goals obviously other strats can afford for exits but im only ever going to talk about my own stuff as thats what i specialise in and know most about.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Up far too early but cant sleep, been mucking about with the new iphone and trading cricket at weird times has mucked up my sleep. Iv been looking at the big bash markets. I did something similar in the world cup when i backed NZ at 12.00s to win the tournament. With that trade i had a fixture mapping out their progression and could see huge value in them as i looked to get out for a nice swing trade. Was a very nice win for anyone who got on that, they ended up trading odds on in the final. In the big bash however you only need to reach the playoffs. So on looking at teams im really looking to see who has the best domestic players. It was the same with ipl the best domestic players added with class overseas tend to perform the best (mumbai indians)
With that in mind iv picked out the melbourne stars. For t20 you need big hitters i think james highlighted a cracking article which showed the more aggressive a team is even if they are losing wickets the more chance they are of winning. Taking that into choosing a team with stoinis and maxwell, could you have two bigger players? Those two alone could win games. Then you look at what wins games in the opposite way. Tight bowling with wicket taking chances. Zampa looked really good against indias top t20 players. Now you take him in a domestic setting against weaker players and he could be a top pick.
When you look even closer none of those three are in the test squad for aus, yes they maybe first in line for replacement but thats something that can be acted on pretty quickly with this trade. Whereas some of the other teams will not be able to rely on these players during the tests. I know not much cricket is played when the tests are on in this regard but the constant switching between test and t20 might not work for some players which hopefully wont be the case with these 3.
There is debate on their overseas in terms of availability over the comp but any game that features the likes of pooran and bairstow would be huge but for the sake of this trade im not looking at what overseas players a team has as that puts too much pressure on them individually. So just looking at the best domestic players, while having overseas as a bonus for this trade.
Last 2 BBLs they have also finished 2nd which is the whole part of this trade i dont care if they win or lose im just looking at who has the best chance of their odds slimming enough to make a tasty profit.
So taking odds of 5.7 im looking to exit as it approaches 4.00. With these type of trades im affording a 5% stake so if i can turn that into a risk free position asap then ill take it. 4.00 is the target get that and ill let it run and scalp as they progress. I think their price has drifted to this and become 2nd fav because of the potential overseas problem in them not being fully available. But like iv pointed out below im not here for them to be winning the comp only get far enough in for me to exit for a risk free position and then monitor.
Was going to post this on the outright or cricket threads but as its a long term position ill keep it on here so i can easily reference it once the trade is won/loss.
There we go all nicely done in 2 games for almost no work now ill just scalp as we get into the 3.00s if they dont get that low its risk free anyway, hope some managed to get on
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So as it helped last time i saw a situation today on my list where all 3 games were identical but one small factor was different but it was decisive in terms of how the game went.
Pre match i had selected: leeds, wolfsburg and anderlecht as 2nd half goals to watch.
If you look at the profile of each games there was one team performing better in the league than the other and one in form the other not. These for me helped to add to selecting the games.
Key players all on the pitch on 70 mins, price all looking good for each game, match flow also looking good.
Now ill show you the main factor as to why i didnt trade one of the three:
The main difference between them all? Motivation. Wolfsburg down a goal and needed to get back into it. West ham and leeds both drawing and both teams looking for a win. But anderlecht 1-0 up, now in this case your then looking to see if genk are looking like getting back into this or at least being reckless in pursuit of a goal. They were neither. Stats showing this.
I hope this helps to show why certain trades match with my selection process. Take your games inplay and make sure there is no doubt a goal is likely. For me i say this alot your aim is to find a reason not to trade that game, if you cant find a reason then trade it. Hope this helps.
Ill maybe do a list this weekend and do a full days rundown to help again.
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@darri I ended up having a good one on the LPL today also after being done with it yesterday.
built some green during the Dambullah innings, added to it when Colombo started nicely after moving green on to Colombo after first innings. Then entered again when Colombo hit my 39 from 3 philosophy. Nice after a couple of dodgy days glad to hear you had a cracker on the BBL. 
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Days like today when everything just clicks. Everything iv built on with cricket came together and felt unstoppable today with it.Melbourne stars keeping brisbane to a very modest total and i capitalised on their initial slowness, not hitting anywhere near par score and built a strong position into the chase. Stars losing a few early on and i just waited until there was stability in the innings to reinvest more in. Lovely way to start the BBL for me.
Iv been quite pessimistic with the lpl but that is due to my own trading and not reading the game well enough. Iv been caught out looking to oppose when teams are really just waiting for the last 5 overs with the boundaries being ridiculously small. The one thing as i read over my previous posts and is a common theme: Any set partnership going into the last 5 overs as long as the run rate is no more than 14-15 is achievable. The colombo kings were well ahead of the dambulla at every stage of the chase it was just wickets they had lost more of. When they kept hitting milestones and the markets was still on the side of dambulla purely for the high score i kept adding. I then setup a trade where i could win 9 points on colombo and only risk 2 points loss if dambulla stifle them. This wasnt the case and they went big in the 19th over. At this stage i exited for a nice 6.5 points on the match, and probably my best read game so far this year.
Now hopefully i can follow this up with good weekend on the football. This is shaping to be a cracking month
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@chris-osborne doesnt matter about overall performances just need market bias to think they look better than they are, this team are the most consistent and it wont take much to move in favour. Kind of like liverpool this year, they are doing enough while still having problems with players etc, but still markets are favouring them. Its about playing the markets rather than all my analysis being spot on. Also one game in hard to judge, i dont think even the stars were at their best.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
nice start for the melbourne stars! Managed to trade that game well. Brisbane crumbled after a few wickets whereas the batting lineup of the stars steadied the ship. You add pooran to that lineup and there are serious hitters in there. Already a movement on the price from the 5.7 i got this morning in the winners market, hopefully a few more results and that will be looking good.
Didn't trade it but they looked pretty useful although they will face stiffer tests than Brisbane who looked a poor one man team in Chris Lynn if he doesn't score runs there in trouble
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incase anyone is on the trade i posted earlier on the bbl winner with melbourne stars the price on offer now you could lock in a risk free position of 4 points on them and let it run. For me im waiting as i think it will hit 4 if they gain momentum with a few more wins. Im aiming to have a 8 point risk free. But if you dont want to monitor it going forward could be a nice easy position to just get out if you wanted. Nice potential profit target for almost no work.
