The road to full time
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@mull just makes it easier to separate from my full time bank. I will move it over to betfair when stakes rise, just started it to monitor the beginners bank in the original post and see if betdaq was feasible for smaller stakes.
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Any particular reason you are using Betdaq? Apologies if you have answered this before.
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@matt-wood no problem buddy, its the whole point in why i wanted to set the FHG project up, was for people to ask questions about why/how we are doing things. The stats software at first looks complicated but its such a valuable and quality of life tool, all my strats can be done manually but would take a bit of time to go through.
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@darri Excellent stuff, thanks Darri much appreciate you taking the time out to answer
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@matt-wood yeah the stats software only includes home teams home form and away team away form. We are just looking for a games that have had more than 8 FHGs in its recent 5 games scope for the homes last 5 and aways last 5, so yes 8/10 would qualify.
Just saw your edit to the post, we are only looking for games that have had a FHG in it. So if over 10 games (scope of 5, 5 home + 5 away) there has been at least 1 goal in 8 of them then it matches that criteria, but then of course it then needs to match the other couple we have too before its on the list.
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@matt-wood not silly mate, we have selected matches played to = 10 as part of the filter too, which is why this works. Scope for last 5 games = home teams last 5 and aways last 5. Scope just refers to the last 5 of both within the current season. So if a team has played 20 games we are still only looking at the last 5.
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Afternoon Darri, hope youre safe and well.
I have what will probably be a stupid question about the FHG filter you set up for people to follow.
The second line, Ov. H1 Over 0.5>=8, is this asking for the number of games to have over 0.5 goals in the 1st half? If the number required is 8 or more how can that be possible when the scope is for the last 5 games? surely the max would only be 5?Thanks in advance.
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Since lockdown cut short my side video/film project, iv been playing a lot of football manager and following from a recent documentary i watched about the moneyball model football clubs are trying to use, it got me thinking. Isnt it weird that its not universally used? Data in any industry can sometimes be undervalued. Reason i link it to football manager is most people who play it play for fun, they get a scout report see if the players attributes look decent then sign and just play. It might just be the trader and stat guy in me but iv started to use the moneyball model within it. It really brought a new viewpoint on the game. Who doesnt want to find the next ngolo kante! I know sad life!
As a trader and someone who picks games based off stats i just find it weird why data driven decisions arent always common place. Especially in the tech world we have these days. We always seem to be over reliant on more general stats, can be seen in the betting world with most people betting on full results rather than the niche markets betting companies dont like to advertise. Iv seen it on here too. People go on how they traded each day and use that as a measure for their success. Instead of allowing your trading time to develop and win over a longer period.
When we have very few trades for a day pop up on our filters newer traders go hunting flashscores to see what game are on and try come up with angles. Instead of using cold hard data. There is a reason that game doesnt suit your filter/strategy, yet you have a quick glance and make excuses to do so. I did this for far too long. People probably cant get there head around why i trade such few games in a week. Its not through choice its through opportunity. And to bring this back to the main post, its about what the data says. Data analysis is huge for our industry. Not just the actual filtering of games but tracking our trades. Its without doubt the biggest change to my trading i made and its had the biggest impact. Stats dont lie. If you have a winning strategy the stats will show you. We are all bamboozled by people claiming to be gurus of trading, but get them to show their actual trades and they get defensive.
Iv said this before treat trading as if its your business. Yes its a hobby for some but treat each trade as if its a business investment if you plan to do this long term. Use the moneyball model in trading. Think of each trade as you buying a undervalued player and selling it off to someone else for profit down the line. Next time you enter a trade think if i was to justify this as a business decision to shareholders could i? or if you were club could you justify this to fans? Something you spot far too often is people posting or entering a trade with a slight element of doubt. Dont just assume anything in football, dont let your opinion get in the way of pure data.
Bit different this post and a bit more of just a personal chat. But i find problem solving and these kind of approaches to be something that come out of me the past few years. Im not sure if its a complimentary personality trait/skill to have for trading but it works with my style of trading for sure.
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@gary-brown only had 4 match a criteria last couple days, no rush to go hunting tho, if i have zero trades forr a few days there isnt an issue. Just be patient let the trades come to you dont go chasing them. If they arent on my filters im not hunting each game to see if there is an angle. Not every pro aims to make p/l updates every day, quality over quantity.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen id have made more with ltd but that is with hindsight never knew the goal would be 93 mins
If only we knew that upfront - we'd all be billionaires
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@finn-kristensen id have made more with ltd but that is with hindsight never knew the goal would be 93 mins
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen yes i normally enter a lcs trade, then wait for the LTD portion. So 2pts per strategy, in this case i have just used both portions into the lcs, the odds were too good for swiss league to turn down.
Ah - OK, that explains it
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@finn-kristensen yes i normally enter a lcs trade, then wait for the LTD portion. So 2pts per strategy, in this case i have just used both portions into the lcs, the odds were too good for swiss league to turn down. So zero change to strat just instead of ltd just used another lcs
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@gary-brown said in The road to full time:
any trades on the horizon tonight mate?
A good few games on to say its a Wednesday.When things get back to normal we wont see this many games during the week day its due to leagues trying to catch up with all these games.
Yeah - that's actually a pity since it's great to have options every day rather 10's every Sat & Sun and then 0-2 on weekdays.
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I am looking at it now - I understand the confusion that Gary expresses. Usually, it seems like you use a 2 pt stake, but for the Luzern match you record a 4 pts profit at odds 2.02 which suggests a 4 pts stake?
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any trades on the horizon tonight mate?
A good few games on to say its a Wednesday.When things get back to normal we wont see this many games during the week day its due to leagues trying to catch up with all these games.
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thats why I asked Darri as I thought their was a reason mate but I wasn't sure what it was.
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@gary-brown would never advocate chasing of any description
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Thanks Darri I didnt read the previous posts. I was going to say its not like you too double up.
Never seen you do that before mate.
