The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@daniel-cooper I see no reason for exiting either bud as in the ipl has only just started and in the prem we have only had one round of games since i posted. These arent short term trades.
Cheers Darri
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@daniel-cooper I see no reason for exiting either bud as in the ipl has only just started and in the prem we have only had one round of games since i posted. These arent short term trades.
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How are those outrights going from your perspective?
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Interesting to see that as traders we are also looking to start trading elsewhere. Its certainly something iv been adding too.
In terms of this blog over the weekend and early next week im gonna be concentrating on a video project and trading so wont be able to post that much. Its probably gonna be like that until after the ipl. Just a lot going on. Once the summer comes round tho we will be in much calmer waters. So forgive me if im quite quiet over the next few weeks. Iv been posting daily all my selections while iv had a quiet period but will have to revert back to more update type blogs for the next period.
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Freelance Television Prostitute, wannabe Betfair trader, have some Bitcoin just got into Etoro hoping that if the days of traveling for work come to an end and everything ends up coming out of hubs I have strong income streams coming in and can continue to just travel but with my family.
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full time job -asbestos surveyor
betfair trading
match betting - some
just started investing on etoro- small at mo
reselling on ebay - used to do this years ago just going back into it.long term plan is to make full time money on betfair and etoro using the money made from the other streams
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@darri said in The road to full time:
A question for anyone reading, what other income streams do you have that arent betfair trading and the day job? Interested to see what people do with their money and how they manage that across multiple streams. Not sure if people are diverse on here so just want to find out what others are upto. Currently i have betfair trading, video production business i started last year, crypto and buying and selling online(side hustle). Iv said this to a few people before, im 28 years old but ideally i want to build as much as i can and get experience in as many markets as possible so that i can be in a healthy financial position by the time im 40. I could easily just build on betfair but its healthy to have risk spread a bit, as premium charge halts the progress at the higher levels.
Small pension (started VERY late in life) with Vanguard, some ETF and Gold investment funds on H&L. Looking to try my hand at individual shares but not sure on the best platform. Also considering buying some physical gold and silver.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
A question for anyone reading, what other income streams do you have that arent betfair trading and the day job? Interested to see what people do with their money and how they manage that across multiple streams. Not sure if people are diverse on here so just want to find out what others are upto. Currently i have betfair trading, video production business i started last year, crypto and buying and selling online(side hustle). Iv said this to a few people before, im 28 years old but ideally i want to build as much as i can and get experience in as many markets as possible so that i can be in a healthy financial position by the time im 40. I could easily just build on betfair but its healthy to have risk spread a bit, as premium charge halts the progress at the higher levels.
I use Assetz Management, a peer to peer lending platform!
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A question for anyone reading, what other income streams do you have that arent betfair trading and the day job? Interested to see what people do with their money and how they manage that across multiple streams. Not sure if people are diverse on here so just want to find out what others are upto. Currently i have betfair trading, video production business i started last year, crypto and buying and selling online(side hustle). Iv said this to a few people before, im 28 years old but ideally i want to build as much as i can and get experience in as many markets as possible so that i can be in a healthy financial position by the time im 40. I could easily just build on betfair but its healthy to have risk spread a bit, as premium charge halts the progress at the higher levels.
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@james-woodroffe its definitely clearly a reason why home advantage being removed this year is such a good move by the organisers.
In the 4 games played there. So far the only times a team have scored at a good rate is when a set batsmen has stuck around in the last 5 overs. I think the wickets total for last 5 overs and the net run rate are some of the best stats for bowlers at chennai. Id still suggest tho that if a set batsmen is there they should be getting these totals, i only entered today because of the fact both set batsmen got out and left two new batsmen both with zero balls faced. Its a mix right now of low total mentality getting in chasers heads by playing timid and dot balls adding up and the way the pitch is playing. At one stage SRH only needed 7 an over, they just built up dots and played defensive shots and drove that to 9s so when wickets came so too did scoreboard pressure. What CSK used to do well was always eek the game out to the end, be that dhoni, raina or jadeja as log as someone set stays they have a chance.
Love the IPL
just a fanboy/geek 
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@darri I wonder if itâs a lag from how well Chennai used to play there when they were a IPL top dog and the markets donât give the other sides the credit yet cause they not CSK? If that makes sense.
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@james-woodroffe masterclass from babar never over hits anything. Yeah i actually loved my trade on the ipl today, even tho the runs and wickets were there, this pitch given how the first 3 games here have gone just makes it impossible for new batsmen. Zero pace to work with and its spinning from off cutters from the quicks. The markets havent worked it out yet. They will eventually tho.
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@darri ahh just saw your post on cricket forum answered my question it hasnât changed. Good old Chennai.
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@darri gutted I missed seeing Babarâs masterclass today heâs one hell of a batsman going to check YouTube for some highlights he and Rizwan could develop into a lethal combo and with the World T20 in October, Pakistan will be a front runner along with India for sure. Interesting result in Chennai itâs always been a bowlers wicket over the years but havenât seen any matches this season so far but assuming going by scores itâs the same and just gets more difficult with pace off the ball and a spinners heaven. Nice work
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The thing is i said this earlier in week it takes time to get comfortable with trading. This might seem crazy that i can calculate all this just before i place a trade but really for me now its just normal. Its like anything the more times you do something the faster, better and more efficient youll do it. The things i suggest are all the things iv done to get here. While i know sometimes i sound smart arse like, thats only because of the industry we are in has a cloud of doubt around it still. For me iv put in a lot of effort to get here. Dont think iv just danced my way to this. Iv lost banks, over traded and created hideous strategies/filters along the way. It just takes time and experience. The only reason i post these more detailed posts is to show you what i have done and what stuff actually helped me. Believe me iv put time and effort into alot of things in trading, good and bad, im just trying to direct you to the important stuff. Pre match stats - Filters - Inplay - Price - Tracking/Optimising are all the areas of what makes a trade for me. It took me about a year to get the strategies to a stage i was really happy with, by mastering one strategy at a time, how many time will i keep saying that? ALL the time! No one seems keen to do that tho, the ones that do make huge improvements. There is this thinking that we need to rush this and get all this data or get trading loads of games fast. The more we rush the worse our decisions. We wouldnt rush to buy/invest in houses, businesses and cars. So why are we acting differently with trading. We got to look for value and find strategies and filters that give us the value. Once you get to that stage the less effort you then put in because it becomes the norm, and you have done all the hard work at the start when building the strategy. Im now at the stage were im just reaping the rewards now for all that effort. Its not always easy and i still think alot of work needs to go into this to make it a success. Not everyone is prepared for that.
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Iv had a few questions about filters recently. I just wanted to do a wee post because a couple common things came up. One is the criteria people are asking for, how relevant is that to their end trade. Seen a couple of people looking at one more 2nd half goal trading yet having fhg stats and overall match stats in there. The thing is you have to take a deeper look at that. Some of my best value in my trading comes from games were there isnt a huge expectation for loads of goals, but there is for just 1 or 2. This is when the markets will offer favourable prices. The thing is the stats software can actually show you that certain low scoring games have just as much chance of having one 2nd half as one that is predicted to have 3. This is what i think people are missing out on. Adding criteria thats just gonna make them compete on par with what the markets are predicting. Therefore adding no edge. Thats how you become profitable at anything you need an edge. Make sure when asking the stats software, that each criteria is offering value to your picks.
Example. Burnley vs newcastle (hypothetically), this game might show that there is historically been 80% success rate of having one 2nd half goal. But maybe only 40% of having 2 2nd half goals or is maybe only 2.2 avg goals per match. So this game is predicted to be low scoring. But we arent looking for goal fests. We only need one. How many of your filters are missing these games. Some filters are so over saturated with criteria that they miss out on the good picks. Remember the markets are priced in favour of games predicted to be goal fests. Now that doesnt mean we avoid goal fests bring them on, but typically we are then trying to battle for a good price in those games when an easier and better priced option was also on.
What im trying to say is work out what your looking for with a filter. Are these for set and forgets? Are these for taking inplay to decide? Improve them based on that. If they are set and forget then the stats software is hugely important and will mean your competing against the market from a data point of view so you better make it a good filter. If its for inplay then you dont need to be so reliant. Just use it to help guide you to likely good games. Its easy for us to pick dortmund and psg, but the value isnt always there.
Another thing im seeing is the way people track these. Now iv done posts about my process to these. I can see why people would be confused. If its a strategy while in testing where i need to track inplay for a price ill not bother. If its something i can check pre match ill track. This is only because i already have other strategies. If i have none running or just starting absolutely track odds from start. That way youll have complete data. The way i do my stuff now is i work around improving the strike rate to as good as i can get it, without thinking about p/l or anything like that. Its just how good can a i make these selections. This might mean tweaking the filter or looking at certain situations etc. The reason i do it my way is because i cant manage to track odds in a busy trading cause this is my job i need to keep the main trades as good as they can be. Probably why ill not be adding in any inplay type strategies or set and forget they will all now be pre match stuff. TRACK those odds your strike rates are clouded in mystery unless you already have experience in those markets. For example in some of the things i do when testing i already know the avg odds at certain times, how do i know that because at one stage of my trading i tracked it when building my own strategies. You gotta get the experience. If it was that easy we would never have people stop trading and have failures. This game/industry wont work for the lazy, you got to put some effort in to get something back. Its why its also not always manageable for people due to the time it takes from you.
Another thing is, and sometimes this is when the money factor halts your progress. We can get to a stage when in testing a strategy that it then becomes profitable after a number of games and instead of looking for better tweaks we stop improving and just settle. Im at a stage still were if i spot an improvement im still adapting with it. My lates entries still change over time albeit within the same sort of range. Always be looking to improve find a tweak. There isnt a perfect strategy but at least try get there. This is why money clouds all our judgements in trading. Think big picture not short term while testing also.
When doing tweaks, remember to start again and add another sheet alongside to compare. This way youll see how those tweaks actually affected your filter.
The thing is each criteria we set on the stats software you have to understand its importance to your strategy. Is it adding value to your picks. For me i find that certain criteria are way more important than others. To find this out get adding each criteria on a spreadsheet and track its importance. Youll quickly see what stats dont add up to anything. Dont just base it on a few games tho. Do a full test.
Its not something i normally discuss via posts because its so individually specific. Remember use the software as a guide. if your into automation and set and forgets then make sure this stuff is rock solid. But if your like me and also add the inplay elements (key players, ht scores, inplay stats) dont worry too much about this.
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Cricket/IPL update:
South Africa (sa) vs Pakistan (pak): +3.39 points/% of bank
BABAR! That was one of the best t20 innngs iv seen in a while. Rarely did he slog it all runs coming from inventive and clinical shots. With sa posting a very healthy score the markets were always gonna provide the pressure on the price which would allow me to wait patiently to see how pak would go about this chase. Both babar and rizwan rocketing along and the price moving to evens. It was at this stage i entered. This is when my strategy comes into its element and just rinses the market for value, lapping up the good prices on offer. They chased that down with ease. With a run chase like this and flip flopping favs i was hoping for the same in the IPL.
Sunrisers (srh) vs Bangalore (rcb): +1.08 points/%of bank
I feel like this might be a recurring theme, unreal game again! This chennai pitch is reversing whats commonly a batsmens format and instead meaning the bowlers are the key men. This was absolutely identical to the last game, and even to a certain extent the very first game too. Chennai is making the markets sweat because they have no idea what is and isnt a safe score. Again my strategy providing me with the flexibility to get in right when needed. I waited all the way until the 16th over to enter here. With both bairstow and pandey both dismissed and two batsmen sat on 0, rcb were 2.02 to back. With siraj and patel both to finish i felt like i could get in on this knowing i could likely get out for a safe trade even if a few runs happened. That wasnt to be an issue, another wicket of samad fell in the 16th over too and the momentum fully with rcb. The markets too slow to react to both the match and the pitch. Great little steal here. Didnt stake too much and more a steal than my typical positional trade. Happy days
Cracking little day this really nailing the t20s right now and sniping some cracking trading opportunities. Lets hope for more of the same.
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@james-woodroffe absolutely bang on, ive been on here 2 years and its been a bumpy ride all my own making, i am now starting to to get profitable consistently, this was achieved through the help from the people in this community, ive followed keith and darri's trades and ive made more than ive lost. i now have a trading style of my own but adapted from what i learnt from these. If ive lost a trade ive followed ive never questioned the person ive followed ive taken responsibility for myself. My advice is learn from these guys dont shoot them down in flames when you lose money, its you thats putting the stake in and pressing confirm.
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Lads thanks for the messages, its great knowing there is such support on here. It does mean a lot. Im still laughing at how diplomatic, yet honest/truthful, james was with his post
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@eamonn-hogan SPOT Fân right bro!! If you wanna get somewhere in this thereâs blokes on here you can learn so much from. Whether itâs how @Darri does his late goals if itâs @Keith-Anderson on how to LTD if itâs John on the horses or Richard on the cricket or who ever it is you learn from. But there comes a time where you go. âThanks gentsâ and you pick up what youâve learnt and go from there. You donât suck their balls when they add green and burn them at the stake when youâve had a red trade. Youâve learnt from them youâve sussed out if you can do this yourself from guys who know what the F theyâre doing. Itâs not a tipping service itâs a learning process.
