The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Just as a side note and for people who get caught up in a robotic stance/limbo. Take this game tonight. Its just gone 0-2 and the home side have a red card. You could trade out now by greening up or remove liability. You never have to just be led by some way of trading. I do agree that having a good process and sticking to it is optimal for consistency but there really is no one way to trade/make money. Im a set and forget trader, my edge isnt a traded angle its of the principle that im selecting pre match value and over thousands of trades ill come out with a large profit based on that edge. That doesnt mean there aren't better edges or better strategies to employ with this same trade, there probably is some optimal way. Find your angle and stick to it. This game may very well bounce back and bite me, but 1 game out of 1000 is meaningless. As long as i stick to an edge its the 100 batches that count we forget that 1 game very quickly.
Just thought id post that as i think people become almost fomo like with trading. X trader says we should do it this way so that must be the best way to trade is a pure fomo mentality, Find your own edge and stick to it. If you agree that x trader has a legit edge then by all means follow along. Its why im sharing all my football trades to show a legit edge long term and hope that it helps others build on that. But the best version of your trading will likely be from your own angles.
Up late tonight getting work sorted to enjoy rest of weekend, as said above find your own edge, my edge is set and forget and taking value prices. This game won!
1/1 and +1.47pts added
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@james-woodroffe I enjoy it more because of how silly it is that we spend so much time on it. With trading as a job the hours spent on it are purely for a money reward and actually can be stressful. FPL is fun and you can switch in and out when you want. Im just looking to improve slowly with it. The more time you spend on FPL the more overthinking you do and you talk yourself out of simple decisions. So actually less time spent is better. Really if you watch any video about the good fpl players its the common sense things that prevail. Its very much like trading. Find your angle and stick to it, improving it slowly. Trading isnt all consuming, its a hinderance at times but really you should only trade around your lifestyle, if you cant dont let it consume you, i was veering to being more busy so trading schedule needed to be adapted. FPL has no money in it and its only a game.
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@darri mate this post is firmly tongue in cheek but if you think trading can be all consuming try fantasy football
I used to do it back home in Oz with the AFL and my god the hours I could dwindle away setting my team up 
still having said that I loved it when I did it. -
Just as a side note and for people who get caught up in a robotic stance/limbo. Take this game tonight. Its just gone 0-2 and the home side have a red card. You could trade out now by greening up or remove liability. You never have to just be led by some way of trading. I do agree that having a good process and sticking to it is optimal for consistency but there really is no one way to trade/make money. Im a set and forget trader, my edge isnt a traded angle its of the principle that im selecting pre match value and over thousands of trades ill come out with a large profit based on that edge. That doesnt mean there aren't better edges or better strategies to employ with this same trade, there probably is some optimal way. Find your angle and stick to it. This game may very well bounce back and bite me, but 1 game out of 1000 is meaningless. As long as i stick to an edge its the 100 batches that count we forget that 1 game very quickly.
Just thought id post that as i think people become almost fomo like with trading. X trader says we should do it this way so that must be the best way to trade is a pure fomo mentality, Find your own edge and stick to it. If you agree that x trader has a legit edge then by all means follow along. Its why im sharing all my football trades to show a legit edge long term and hope that it helps others build on that. But the best version of your trading will likely be from your own angles.
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Overnight LTD:
Inter Miami vs NYB
Sorry for a late post, should get a few over the weekend
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Deadline has now passed so teams locked in, good luck
BTW its not too late to join, can join after this gameweek youll stilll retain all your points made this season@Paul-Keighley im very much an eye test guy too, however im using stats as a final tick on my selections, had a nightmare with team building this past week after a great first 2 weeks, silly transfers, but can see a way out soon
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Sounds good, I'm in. Will be a good test of stats vs eyetest plus a few fun punts! gl all
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Iv set one up, league code is: ecidgu
Bet im bottom end of season
Will setup a thread so others who arent following this blog a chance to enter, just a bit of fun -
@darri
I have a team in -
@paul-keighley totally understand that view, i suppose my limited years is a softener to all that right now. In terms of content i enjoy i do stick to people in the hall of fame. The rest are just people to bounce ideas off. I did notice you dominated our league last year. I only really got into it fully since January, this will be the first season iv looked at it fully. Trying to aim for top 100k. Sounds huge number to those who dont play FPL buts its a very small % of the overall entries. If we can get a few on this then we can sort out a league. Think you can set one up that includes all points earned so far too.
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@darri yep I 'm in for sure. Treating it as fun but have found that looking at stats etc helps put me in the right frame of mind for trading so win win for me
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@matt-wood if we can get at least 4/5 who have a team we can sort something out
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I think there was a BTC league last year if I remember correctly but only a draft this year?
I've actually gone the opposite way with FPL to you Darri! I used to take it fairly seriously, studying the stats etc, entering money leagues with mates, and did pretty well. 3 Top 5k finishes in the game the last few years with literally millions of entries, but I've become less excited by it these days.
It has become so competitive, with a million fpl twitter accounts, self proclaimed experts, (a uni mate is a fantasy scout "expert" writing articles, appearing on fpl tv etc and me and his girlfriend beat him in his mini league last two years haha), everyone seems to have the same "template" teams these days, and I realised all teh fun of what made it a fun game had been sucked out of it. As a result I've only entered one of my best mates leagues and have refused to read any articles or look at any stats at all this season. Just a quick glance at the next couple weeks fixtures and picking players i feel are playing well from watching matches. It's made me much happier!
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@darri Im in the draft but also have a 'normal' team entered
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Iv spoken about this before but the more iv gotten into data the more its seeped into other things i enjoy. Right now im growing ever more addicted to fantasy football. If anyone wants to chat FPL hit me up, could even setup a thread for it. Out of interest is there anyone doing the main FPL (not the draft) so we could do a btc league? Just got involved in the FPL twitter community, follow us if your active, gonna try hack that as a hobby i enjoy. Especially with winter coming and no cricket for me need to find something to geek out about
using the btc software to find high scoring games and then selecting my captain accordingly 
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@darri Thats really good of you, will PM you, just waiting for my partner to go to work, thanks again
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@nick-terracciano I think you are at a stage many fall into early days into trading. I remember myself being the same sort of in limbo. I can see everyone else doing well but when i go to do them they lose etc. The best thing i did was go away and test something, dont trade with money and just collect for several months. Trading is all about confidence. There are hundreds of ways to trade with small tweaks on the main markets. Look how many different SHGs or LTD variations we have on here. If you go away and track a strategy for the rest of this year you will have a good sample size to understand if your strategy will work long term. You can tweak it until it works. Im happy to help you work on a strategy if you want. The liability for LTDs is subject to your own strategy, I know thats stuarts for example is high liability at times and 1-2 losses hurts, even if it recovers still feels painful. But for mine i was only ever using 2-3pts max liability when looking to win 1pt. Its all down to what your strategy is like.
I mean look at me for example. Many think of me as someone who is consistent with trading. Yet I had a wobble in confidence during the summer leagues. Had i just stuck to my strategy id have been 20-30pts better off as it ended up returning to normal. The reason i stopped was because i had no data to back up that summer leagues did well. Its only been tested on winter leagues. But slowly i tracked and made tweaks and found that sweet spot again. Now im confident enough to do these as my main strategy.
Remember its easy to find a strategy its hard to manage one. Lets talk and help build you something, as it sounds like you rely alot on what people are doing on here to guide you to stuff, ie what odds to take etc.
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@darri backed away from LTD due to liability, and being relatively new to trading, as Ryan has said on many occasions its not sexy but it works.
Also have been trying to get on every game (although this month has not been exactly jam packed with games) and do get pissed off when I miss games.
May have to rethink my plans, which is fine I never expected to pick this up quickly although mindset was something I need to constantly assess, in trading and life.
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@darri legendary
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@paul-keighley someone else asked me this too, honestly i just dont trust automation. I love the thought, but i dont trust it or betfair to make it 100% work every time. I know i could test it on smaller stakes to gain confidence in the process but its not for me. This wouldnt scrap red cards would it? Betfair outages like last weekend would annoy me too and that would be out of my control. Every trade i enter i want full control over, know its on and know how much im making or losing. Dont want any outside factors reducing my p/l. Being a trader we work on data, we limit risks, those things to me seem risky compared to me just sticking to ltd which i can place manually at start of day.
Thanks for the offer and im sure automation brings many a way to trade around work etc, its just not for me and my mind would be worried it got on etc, which is counter intuitive to the problem im trying to solve. Adding to the "to win" stake by 0.5 to the LTD outperforms the SHG.
