2018 Pre Match Scalping Thread
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@frode-lia Nice move that!
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In on Rangers from 1.72
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1.25 not sure where this goes
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Journalists!!!
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Damn, didn't expect the teams for another few minutes. Out for a small loss
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No Messi!
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i think it's fake money keeping it here, ladder shows me money matched at 1.15 so i feel that is where it will head.
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@luke-ridger hope they do! Been hovering around 1.17-1.18 for the last couple of days.
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Barca will go off around 1.15 according to my data, there are manipulators around so be watchful and don't be spooked.
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Barcelona have been good on the one-tick recycle today and should continue to be until 18:45 GMT, when the team sheets are released.
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Hi Martin
Thanks for explaining, for my inplay match trading I will now do my initial trade just before kickoff rather than thinking I am getting good odds the day before as like you say it can be a bad trade before the match even kicks off. Do you have any tips for what to look out for pre match trading I have tried doing the pre match scalping on a big favourite but not had much luck.
Sorry one more question, I was looking to find matches with an over inflated draw to what the true odds should be but I can't seem to locate on the stats match odds stats and percentages etc in relation to what the odds should be can you help please? -
@james-everard that isn't prematch trading bud that's inplay trading. with prematch you would never take it inplay. yes if inplay trading take as close to KO as possible or you risk odds moving a lot before KO
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Hi All
Can I have some advice please on pre match trading . I have been trying out different things the last few days. I have been using the stats software and looking at the probabilities in relation to the odds to see if there is an edge in the market. For instance I have traded the Mansfield match tonight and fortunately managed to make a decent profit on the under 1.5 goals market as looking at the stats the goals scored in the first 20mins was a lot lower percentage than between 20 and 45mins ( 1st 20mins percentage total was 17% as apposed to the 20-45mins market which is 28%). The problem I seem to be having is this , the odds of 3.85 yesterday evening seemed ok as the stats showing it should be 3.33 so I done £2 back bets upto odds of 5, but looking today the odds kept on creeping up to eventually before ko it was 5.2 lay so had a green out of a potential loss pre match. Fortunately no goal was scored in the first 20 so I have greened out, but the question I wanted to ask do people trade the night before or is it best to do the trade just before ko to prevent this problem?
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@Shane Yep, I usually only do it on the day of the game as this is when the market is most stable for it - I have found,
Liverpool, might be a small drift - Trent Alex Arnold is out for 4 weeks and is Gomez with Clyne loaned out might be an issue.
Although Palace are without key players too.
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks Ryan. I have now created a filter of my own. Mine finds matches that the Fav is 1.50 and under. I may have found a candidate, bit early yet though as only £25,000 has been matched. Liverpool v Crystal Palace. Looks like it could be in the making. I'll be keeping an eye on this one.
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@shane
Hey buddy!
I usually get 4/5 time on the one tick up and the one tick, sometimes you only get one - its luck the of the draw sometimes.
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@ryan-carruthers Hi Ryan, I have been following this thread with interest. What put me off this trade was the amount of liquidity in the market. 10's and 100's of Thousands on each side and a few ticks away pretty much the same. This happened last night on the Man City v Wolves match. Now this match in the morning/afternoon had about I think around £1,000,000 matched. Get closer to KO it was in the millions. And the price had only moved a couple of ticks.
What I want to ask is, How many one tick recycles can you expect?
I'm sure you would get many. I see this trade like fishing, you have to be patient. And I'm quite confident that you wouldn't do this trade if it wasn't worth the time. This could be something new for me to concentrate on as well.
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@ryan-carruthers thank you
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2018 Pre Match Scalping Thread:
@rupen-shah
Keiths filter is on the members filters and he also posts them up on the main football thread as does Frode and a few others who will be good to follow.
The link is here
The rules are to stop trading 15mins before Kick off has worked best for me, the filter isn't added to the members filters but to create all you need to do to create it is go to the software then Betfair fav odds less than 2.0 and it will give you the games, then go through the graphs to find ones where the graph looks like the pic attached
d@Bence-Korbuly
