Sipox11 - Trading Journal to Profitability
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Hello guys,
I wanted to start a blog to properly document my journey, hold myself accountable and try to learn from more experienced people from the community, since I started out recently and not off to a great start. I have already identified a few leaks I should plug immediately if I want to become profitable.
TL;DR
I tend to write very long posts, so the summary is that I'm starting my journey of football trading on Orbit Exchange with 5k eur bankroll, with the long term goal of earning 10% ROI over my turnover because I see trading as an active investment for me rather than a side job for me. Until I can show a profit of at least 5 points, I'll be using max liabilities of fixed 0.5 points per trade (25 euro). Results before starting the journal are at the end of the post (-5.76 points).
Background, expectations, bankroll management
I am 30 years old, from Spain, I run a startup full time and I'm a full stack developer. I played poker professionally for three years when I was younger so bankroll management, mental game and discipline are familiar concepts, though I find it anyways not so easy to implement properly yet. I don't want to trade full time, but I want to allocate 7-15 hours to trading as an active form of investing. Most of my money is invested on passive index funds which yield about 6% a year, and my goal is to greatly improve that ROI with sports trading. So I took a 5k euro bankroll to fund this venture and the associated learning.
I cannot trade on Betfair.com from Spain, but I could open an account on Orbit Exchange through BetInAsia with 3% fee on winnings. The downside is that as far as I know, software cannot be used with Orbit, but at least I have access to great liquidity, unlike on Betfair.es which is ridiculously low.
My long term goal is to achieve a 10% ROI over my turnover on average by the end of the year. I am not aware yet of how much turnover I can put in every month since I'm fairly new yet, but I'd be very happy turning over my whole bankroll at least 1x every month, thus giving me a sweet 10% monthly ROI on my investment. I think it should be attainable once I improve my skills after seeing other trader's results.
So my 5k euro bank is split into 100 points, and I'd love to make over 10 points per month, averaging 0.5 points a day, trading 20 days/month on average. I don't really like setting daily monetary goals since it's really out of my control, but last night I read the "Emotion Free Trading" eBook (Ryan posted it somewhere in the forum, great read, thanks!) and it said it's a good practice to set them and visualize yourself achieving them.
However, for my first month, until I start to be confident that I'm starting to be profitable in the markets, I'm gonna use conservative stakes so achieving half of those goals would be great. In fact, not losing any money over the month would be great.
Until I'm confident I can start scaling up my stakes, I'm gonna use fixed max liabilities of 0.5 points per trade (25 euro). If I lose over 20% of my bankroll I will scale it down to 20 euro, then 15 euro, etc. I'm ok with dropping 20% of my BR as long as it helps me improve and learn. (I hope I don't though
).While I understand the reason behind paper trading, I don't think it's the best option for me. Mostly because while a strategy might be profitable on paper, actual execution, money on the line, mental issues, etc. can alter those results and turn it unprofitable. I need to learn to experience and manage those situations and I can only do that with real money. The mistakes I made so far, wouldn't have surfaced if I was paper trading, so I'd rather figure those out as soon as possible. I went for a low enough stake that is gonna give me a very low risk of ruin but high enough that it motivates me to do a good job. To me it's like with play-money poker, good to learn the basic rules of the game but completely useless if you want to learn proper strategy.
I decided to trade football because it is the sport I know most about (I know nothing about horses, tennis, cricket, etc.) though really football is no passion of mine (I love motorsports!). I enjoy the occasional big game with friends, but I'm not a huge fan and my knowledge is quite limited. This is a handicap for me, specially for in-play stats analyzing and match reading, but at least I'm not biased in any way about teams, leagues, players, etc. What I like most about sports trading is it's scalability, since managing twice the bankroll should be as easy or difficult as half of it. In poker the higher the limits, the higher the difficulty and you can be a great winner on lower limits and a big loser on higher ones.
I read about Betfair's Premium Charge though, and it worries me since that would effectively put a ceiling on it. Do you guys have any thoughts / experience with it?
I've been dabbling with football trading for the past 3 weeks, purchased a course and paid a couple of subscriptions. The results have not been great, as I'm -6 points-ish. Most of it though has been caused by my own mistakes. So here are the areas I know I need to improve, leaks that I need to plug asap and the rules I'm gonna stick to while trading.
Biggest current leaks discovered so far
1. Overtrading: I don't know if it's FOMO, but when I research games that are on the higher end of my minimum requirements (or even a bit higher) I still take the trade. When in doubt, I take it. I guess I feel that if I don't, I won't place any trade (or not enough) and thus I'm missing out. Sometimes I find myself making up stories that explain why even though the stats are not exactly what I need, the trade makes sense. Also sometimes I see games that are starting shortly and rush the analysis because deep down, I really want to take it and not miss out. I shouldn't do that if I didn't have time to properlly analyze it because otherwise I'm biased in the analysis to want to take it.
2. Overtrading v2 / revenge trading / strategy improvisation: Another version of this issue. It's not purely revenge trading, but it does involve me making strategies on the fly because a theory just popped in my head (always after taking an unexpected loss). It's only happened twice so far, so I think I've caught it early, but here is the perfect example of what I'm talking about (which cost me 3 of those 6 points I've dropped so far):
Man City vs Man United - Premier League last Sunday (07/03/2021). My research showed (at least to me) that goals were expected on the game, but not in the first 20 minutes, so there was a good opportunity to back under 2.5 goals at kick off and trade out in 20% increments before the 20th minute. I estimated around a 70% chance of success for this. Man City was the clear fav to win the game, playing at home, and also had some potential trades for the second half.
On minute 2' there is a penalty kick for Man United and they score. It caught me with full exposure and I immediately took the expected maximum loss (55% of my stake). The trade was completed "successfully", since I got in and out according to plan, but man, it bothered me that I had "such bad luck" to see that penalty kick so early on. So my head starts spinning theories that clearly Man City is going to equalize (how is he not? he was a clear fav playing at home), so I decide out of the blue to back the favourite with twice the stake (I was still risking only 50% because I was gonna trade out at that point). I don't have a "1st Half back the fav strategy", only on the second half, so I was improvising.
I was close to (reluctantly) trade out for a loss when on minute 50' or so, Man United scored again, setting the score to 0-2. Now I'm completely taken out of balance, my liability is closer to 100% of my stake and there is no getting out possible. So new improvisation (great idea) comes to mind: I stake one further point to back the fav at insane odds (25 or 35), thinking that they could still score one goal (how could they not?) and then cashout for a smaller loss. You can imagine the end of the tale: no more goals, I didn't trade out and I took the full 3 point loss.
This game was madness, and a pure representation of the leaks I need to plug. I found Eamonn Hogan's blog yesterday and loved the read. I liked how he stayed accountable and honest about his early trading mistakes and I wanted to do the same. If I s**t the bed, I will share it here. I guess it helps getting more disciplined and learning from those situations. It was really inspiring to see his progress over the months, and he's riding a very sweet ROI every month with only occasional losing weeks. That's what made me start the blog today actually, I've been looking to do it for the past few days since I joined.
Since that match I decided to to scale down my stakes to 0.5 points max liability instead of 1 point. I was lead to this situation probably because the day before I had 4 losses in a row, and the swing was too much for me yet. I also do value betting and I can handle +/- 1k swings with no sweat, but I guess with trading it's still different because I'm just starting out and I see other traders whose results don't swing much so I feel like I'm obviously doing stuff wrong yet. Mental issues I need to work on.
Areas I want to improve
- Pre-game research: It takes me too much time and I'm never sure I'm checking the most appropriate stats. It's not yet methodical enough. I really love the football stats app from BTC but I still check SoccerStats.com to double check. I'm not 100% sure of the meaning of each stat on BTC software (H2H and overall goal times % for instance, it doesn't match the home/away values, and SoccerStats doesn't show 10 minute tranches, but 15). Also I need to check the performance on the past 6 games for each team and I can't find that on BTC software.
- In-play stats analysis: I'm not getting out of trades in Back Under 2.5 goals when they're lively because I don't know what qualifies as "lively" yet. 2 shots on target is lively by minute 5? 10? The same applies to getting in to back for goals on second half, the game should be lively but I'm not sure if it is, I don't have a yardstick to measure against.
- Including team news, weather news, manager change news and line-ups into the research process. At this point it is too overwhelming for me.
- Mental issues: I need to be more strict with the quality of the trades I pick, I need to never place a trade that has not been researched and planned first. I also need a way to double-check if my analysis is correct. Many losses I've taken I look at them and I'm 100% sure I'd take them again, but with others I have doubts (probably I wouldn't have them if I had win them).
Rules
- Never get on a trade that hasn't been fully researched and planned beforehand.
- Do not get into trades that don't match 100% the planned criteria.
- Max liability of 0.5 points (25 euro) until I can show +10 points profit (+250).
- Analyze all losses, and post on the blog / forum the ones with doubts.
- Finish all day's research before placing the first trade.
- After 3 losing trades in a row, no more trading for the day.
- Max loss per day of 2 points (4x my max liability per trade).
- Always act with my best interest in mind (nice concept I took from the Emotional Free Trading eBook)
- Enjoy each trade (I find that win or lose, I enjoy a successfully executed trade when I'm 99% sure of my research, but I'm stressed when I'm not very confident about it and the loss is then painful).
- Keep track of every single trade taken by strategy, adding a comment to each of them once it's done / in the meanwhile.
- Stick to just football trading for now, in the future I might read about other sport strategies and try them to see if I like them better, but for now football is enough.
Goals
- 10% ROI over turnover (I define it as the sum of my max liabilities) by the end of the year
- 0.5 points / day on average (0.25 points / day for the first month)
- 20 trading days / month = 10 points / month (5 points / month for the first month)
- At least 1 weekly update on the blog with results, tough trade analysis, etc.
- 0 trades placed that are not researched, part of any strategy or rushed.
Current results
Monthly results so far when starting the blog: -5.76 points.
My success rate is very low so far. It might be variance up to a certain point, but mostly I think I'm not selecting the best possible trades both pre-game and in-play.
As you can see on the graph, results weren't that bad actually, until trade #36 where I lost 3 in a row and then again after trade #46 I lost 4 in a row again (with full exposure). That probably tilted me by summing up the previous loss streak and led me to perform the awful Man City vs Man United trade which is the huge jump downwards on trade #49.
Super long post, I tend to do that all the time. You can expect long boring rampages every once in a while. But at least it helps me get stuff of my head, document everything, stay accountable and hopefully expose evident mistakes in my train of thought to others so that they can be fixed.
Have a great week guys, cheers!
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@sipox11 Don't over complicate it matey and if you get stuck we are always here
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Thanks Ryan
The more I learn the harder it seems, but man must it be rewarding crack this long term! I love problem solving and it seems to me that trading is a very big puzzle, different for each game.
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@sipox11 100% I love the ethos here, if you constantly say curious and ask the questions of your trading will be on fire and you will continue over the years and be profitable longer term!
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Paper trading back testing study
I decided to try paper trading as a way to accumulate data more quickly so that I have a database of fixtures matched with strategies that will allow me to get answers to specific questions I have. I used all BTC picks since 28/02/2021 and all other games I selected since the 27/02/2021 for another strategy I was already using.
Dates: from 27/02/21 up to 9/03/21
Caveats: Simplified strategies assuming I take all trades that qualify by scoreline without the benefit of in-play stats, fixed trade size of 25 eur (0.5 points)I will show the results separated by strategy, many games qualified for more than one.
BTC Going for a late goal strategy
Back another goal at 60' with odds 1.40, stay til the end. Theoretical 75% success rate. If a goal is scored on 2nd half, I don't take the trade. If a goal is scored on minute 60, I'll assume I got in before it.
- 16 trades listed, 12 games traded (75%)
- Games where I couldn't trade because a goal was scored before 60': 4 (25%)
- Winning trades: 8 (66.67%)
- Losing trades: 4 (33.33%)
- Biggest winning streak: 5
- Biggest losing streak: 2
- P/L: -22.40 eur (-0.45 points)
- ROI (over turnover): -7.47%
The sample is too small, and the success rate is below the tested theoretical success rate of 75%, so I'm blaming part of it on variance.
BTC Going for a late goal when drawing (Back Next Goal)
Only enter if scoreline is 0-0, 1-1, 2-2. Trades where there was a goal before minute 60' are not disregarded and still traded.
Trades were placed to back over one more goal at odds 1.56, 2.24 and 3,7 on minute 60, 74, 84. (odds taken from real trade, but they could fluctuate from game to game).
- 55 trades listed, 17 games traded (31%)
- Games where I couldn't trade because scoreline wasn't a draw by 60': 29 (53%)
- Games where I couldn't trade because the draw was broken before 60': 9 (16%)
- Games postponed: 1
- Winning trades: 9 (53%). 4/9 with 34% stake, 2/9 with 67% stake and 3/9 with 100% stake. In this specific time period, I'd have lost more money staking 100% directly at 1.40 odds (twice as much).
- Losing trades: 8 (47%) - Biggest winning streak: 3
- Biggest losing streak: 3
- P/L: -43,84 eur (-0.88 points)
- ROI (over turnover): -12.80%
Very low strike rate on this sample size. In here I learnt that the % of times a goal was scored before my entry point is low enough to not worry so much about it.
BTC SHG (Gary's)
Back another goal at 1.20 on minute 45'. All 2H goals will count as if we were already in the market.
- 12 trades listed, 12 games traded (100%)
- Winning trades: 10 (83%).
- Losing trades: 2 (17%)
- Biggest winning streak: 5
- Biggest losing streak: 1
- P/L: -1,50 eur (-0.03 points)
- ROI (over turnover): -0,50%
The BTC Over 1.5 Goals Strategy (Ryan's Split Stake)
Back over 1.5 goals on minute 30' if 0-0 at odds 1.53 and then again at 50' if still 0-0 at 2.18. Cash out for a profit after a goal, trade out for a loss on 70'. Odds taken from the live trade example within the strategy section. I assume 50% loss when cashing out and 35% avg. profit on goal.
- 40 trades listed, 21 games traded (52.5%)
- Winning trades: (71.5%)
- Losing trades: 6 (28.5%)
- Biggest winning streak: 5
- Biggest losing streak: 3
- P/L: +30 eur (0.6 points)
- ROI (over turnover [risk]): 11,43%
This is by far the best performer on this sample, because it also seems to have the best risk-reward ratio (or more balanced at least). I assumed 35% profit when we're right and 50% losses when we need to trade out on minute 70'. If the actual values are different, then the back testing is wrong. At least it's accurate in regards to the success rate (71.5%).
Back O1.5 Goals 2H 50-77'
This is another approach I was following before joining BTC. I'm backing over 1.5 goals additional to current scoreline (i.e. over 3.5 when 1-1) at 50' 40% stake, 62' 30% stake and 70' 30% stake. Cash out for a profit on a goal and trade out for a 60% loss on 77'.
Odds: 2.0, 4.2, 6.2. I assume 50% profit at avg. odds and stake until goal, and 60% loss otherwise.
- 23 trades listed, 20 games traded (87%)
- Games where I couldn't trade because a goal was scored before 50': 3 (13%)
- Winning trades: 14 (70%)
- Losing trades: 6 (30%)
- Biggest winning streak: 5
- Biggest losing streak: 2
- P/L: +29.77 eur (0.6 points)
- ROI (over turnover [risk]): 5,95%
Quite good results, but the results could be much different if using actual odd values instead of average estimations.
Overall results
It actually doesn't seem that different to my current actual graph
I'm gonna assume that 1) variance gave a bad week / couple of weeks to BTC filters, 2) that if actually traded, odds would have been better and thus more profitable, 3) in-play stats could have swayed the decision to get in or not, possibly avoiding a few losses.
I think I will keep paper trading all BTC picks if I have enough time and all those trades that I'm not able to take, and see what happens. At least I can compare my actual results to these and extract some conclusions.
Right now I'm focused on improving my in-play stats reading, trying to discard games in-play when stats don't marry my research. After that, I want to include key players information into my research.
Only one game today on my list but I couldn't be at the computer to trade it. I checked it and a goal came early anyways, so I wouldn't have traded it anyways. I missed on the Man City goal-fest
Cheers!
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Thanks mates
@Chris-Osborne I remember when I first discovered the LTD strategy on a YT video thinking to myself, why on earth wouldn't he just back over 0.5 goals and be done with it?
I am divided as indeed you gave the right reasons. I decided to paper trade both to see for myself what works best. If avg. ROI is the same, then I'll stick to just backing the next goal. If the difference is significant, I think i'll choose LTD even though quick equalizers will be hurtful.
I was actually looking for where in the forum to post trade situation analysis. I'm still getting familiar with how this is all structured. It's great if there is a specific place to post doubts about it, it would help me immensely to get better at reading in-play stats.
Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers
You're so right. As you ll see on my next post, I decided to backtest with paper trading and now that I'm all caught up I will forward test all potential opportunities as I have discovered thanks mostly to one of your videos, the importance of having data to discover improvements and answer questions that only myself can answer since I guess nobody trades/researches/analyses games equally. I have so many questions such as "what if I got in on minute 58 instead of 60?", "how often am I gonna see a goal while waiting to minute 60-65 for LTD?", "should I back next goal, LCS or LTD"?I find those questions can be answered if I paper trade all my potential trades and their results in a very detailed way plus with the data from the actual trades. What's great about it is that I discovered a framework to ask myself specific questions that when answered with data, can improve my whole trading skill as a whole bit by bit. If I keep doing that week after week, tiny improvement/discovery after another, the overall profitability of my skill needs to go up overtime.
@Alastair-Todd Something in my gut told me there were reasons to skip the trade. I had just traded the previous one 15 minutes earlier so I could compare both in-play stats at entry point and knew something was off. I could tell that the first game was way more lively than this one, I just didn't have a proper yardstick nor gut experience to know if it was lively enough.
I've changed my approach now, instead of looking for reasons to get in, I will look for reasons not to, and only trade if I can't find anything wrong with it. There was definitely something off with that trade, which made me feel not 100% sure about it, so next time I'll simply skip it and paper trade the results.
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I agree with Chris Osbourne about the next goal v LTD. I am amazed by the number of times an equaliser has gone in in the last few minutes of the game especially if the DOF scored first, whereas if you back one more goal (or lay NOT one more goal) the trade would automatically be closed when that goal is scored and you don't have to sit on the edge of the seat hoping that the late equaliser won't come.
I wouldn't have put the last trade on, as with my recent experience with Scottish football, I am now firmly of the opinion that it is rubbish!
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This is an interesting read, what I would do is track both the markets - next goal and LTD then you will have all the data to see which one is going to be best long term.
You'd be gutted to get 200 in and then spot oh bugger I'd make more on these if doing a slight twist.
It will also give confidence that on the right path.
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Excellent analysis of your thinking and welcome to btc. Keep asking questions and you’ll learn loads I know I have in the 9 months since I joined.
A couple of points on your initial post: -
I’m no expert but If it’s a choice of ltd or back the next goal I would always back the next goal as long as you can get odds your happy with, might have to wait fir 15 nminutes or so. If a goal comes in the meantime just move on. Reason I say that is with ltd, your winnings could be lower or disappear as you will have to cash out straight away otherwise run 5e risk of an equaliser. Backing the next goal is an instant winner if a goal is scored. I’m a big fan of ltd and am trialling a ltd strategy at the moment but everything has it’s good and bad points.
If your unsure about whether or not to enter a trade why not post in the football forum.
Good luck
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Thanks @Dan-MacKinnon
I actually took your advice and even though it took me a good 3 hours of work or so, I'm glad I did it because I could extract valuable insight and answer a few of my own doubts that I was having while trading today.
I paper traded all BTC picks since 28/02/2020 to see what would have happened. I wanted to share the results of that analysis here today but it is too late already, I'll post it tomorrow.
I wanted to document today's trades, and specially my doubts about the last game. Not sure yet if I should have skipped it.
Tuesday 09/03/2021 trading analysis
- Trades: 3
- Wins: 1
- Losses: 2
- Daily P/L: -0.74 points
- Weekly P/L: -1.55 points
- Monthly P/L: -8.38 points
- All time P/L: -6.5 points
I decided to trade for the first time BTC picks for the day as I didn't find any good opportunities for other strategies I use.
I did not overtrade, overstake or even look at any other games out of the ones I had in my plan. I am satisfied that I followed the plan and executed the trades correctly, despite the losses.
However I did have a few doubts while in the middle, that I should've sorted out earlier, although I already managed to solve some of them.
Sparta Prague vs Pribram (Czech Republic 1. Liga) 2-0 at HT
Strategy: BTC SHG (Gary's)
HT In-play stats: Attacks: 72/51, dangerous attacks: 45/26, posession: 63%/37%, corners: 6/3, Shots score: 4/1 (5 total)
I wasn't comfortable getting in at odds >= 1.20 as I feel the risk-reward ratio is very skewed and that huge losses will wipe out many small winnings. Though it might be profitable, I think it fits me more (mentally) to have a more balanced ratio. That's why I made the plan of waiting a bit later to around minute 60 to get at least 1.40 odds.
I was suffering FOMO during those first 15 minutes waiting to get in because in my head I'd feel an early goal as a loss (that could have been avoided getting in earlier). The in-play stats were over the yardstick I set in my trade plan, and opportunities were increasing with time. I felt I needed to get in quickly. I was taken at 1.41 on minute 58', over the odds target but below the minute target.
I'm not 100% sure the better price compensates the chance of missing an early goal, I wonder how I can check that (probably paper trading over a large sample).
Anyways, I was pretty confident and happy about the trade even before the goal came. In-play stats were strong and eventually a goal came on 81'.
In-play stats when goal came: shot score of 12 (6 shots on target), corners 9/6, 60/40 possession, 84/50 dangerous attacks, 60% dangerous attacks.
Blackburn - Swansea (England Championship) 1-1 at HT
Strategy: BTC Going for a late goal when drawing.
In play stats were over the target planned, so I wanted to get in around minute 60'. What I didn't know is if it was best to LTD or back next goal. So I decided it to test it and see for myself, so I placed half my liability on LTD (at 2.10) and the other half to back over 2.5 goals (at 1.64).
In the end, I couldn't see what worked best since no goal came and I lost the same amount whatever market I had chosen. But I am pretty happy with the trade because in-play stats (to me) were strong enough to justify it. Not many on target shots, but a lot of off target ones.
HT In-play stats: 43/62 attacks, 22/22 dangerous attacks, 55/45 possession, 0/2 corners, 3/4 SoffT, 3/1 SoT, shot score of 7.5.
FT In-Play stats: 98/93 attacks, 45/37 dangerous attacks, 59/41 possession, 5/3 corners, 4/1 SoT, 11/9 SoffT, shot score 15.
Raith vs Ayr (Scotland - Championship) 0-0 at HT
Strategy: BTC Going for a late goal when drawing.
This one I'm not so sure if I should have traded it or not. In-play stats were not as clear as the previous ones. I was actually thinking about skipping it (despite reaching my target stats for entry point), because it felt nothing else was going on. But 2 minutes before entry point, within 1 minute there were 2 shots off target and 1 on target, so I thought ok, it's heating up, and I got in.
After I got in, not much more happened. I was hesitating a lot whether to trade out or stay in as planned, but I decided to stay because it felt like I was improvising.
HT In-play stats: 60/39 attacks, 38/24 dangerous attacks, 64/36 possession, 4/4 corners, 1/0 SoT, 8/4 SoffT, shot score of 7.
Entry time in-play stats: corner 4/4, 78/54 attacks, 50/31 dangerous attacks, 61,39 possession, 2/0 SoT, 10/5 SoffT, 9.5 shot score.
FT in-play stats: 115/83 AT, 76/40 Dang. AT, 63/37 Pos., 6/4 Corners, 2/1 SoT, 13/6 SoffT, 12.5 Shot score.Would you guys have entered or skipped it? Would you have traded out or stayed in? No goal came after all and I took the loss.
=> Once again, I wondered if LTD or backing next goal was best. I feel LTD might be superior because in case a goal is scored in the last minute, I won't be able to trade out (or simply won't) and I'd get 100% of my stake in profit, and about 50% when I green up. If I back the overs around 1.4, I will always get 40% profit at best. There is the chance of seeing an equalizer before greening up, but is it often enough to argue against it?
=> I also wondered if it was best to stake 100% upfront to back next goal or to split it in 3 thirds. This time, I kept note of the odds at each entry point and calculated it to be sure.
- Minute 60': odds 1.56 (according to master spreadsheet, there is a 36% chance of seeing a goal before minute 74). A goal before next entry would give me (1.56 - 1) * (1 - 0.03) * 34% * 1 = 0.18 points profit over my full stake (assuming 1 point) after Orbit's 3% commission.
- Minute 74': odds 2.24 (according to master spreadsheet, there is a 22% chance of seeing a goal after minute 74' but before minute 84). A goal before next entry would give me (2.24 - 1) * (1 - 0.03) * 33% * 1 = 0.4 points profit + the 0.18 points profit from the previous entry = 0.58 points.
- Minute 84': odds 3.7 (according to master spreadsheet, there is a 27% chance of seeing a goal after minute 84'). A goal after this entry would give me maximum profits of (3.7-1)*(1-0.03) * 33% * 1 = 0.86 points profit + the previous 0.58 points = 1.44 points of profit after commission.
With all the numbers ready, I can calculate the EV for both options:
EV [trading 100% upfront at 1.56] = 73% success * (1.56 - 1) * (1 - 3% fee) * 1 point - 27% loss * 1 point = +0.1265 points / trade on average
EV [trading with split stake] = 36% chance of goals (before minute 74') * 0.18 profit + 22% chance of goals between 74 and 84 * 0.58 profit + 27% chance of goals after minute 84 * 1.44 profit - 27% chance of no goals * 1 point = +0.3112 points / trade on average
It's a bit late so please let me know if I messed up with the math. If I didn't, and the success rates from the master spreadsheet are correct and still accurate, it's more profitable to split the stake. At least with this specific game's data, since odds could evolve differently on different games and distort results.
To me, seeing these numbers though, allows me to make peace with it and forget about this doubt anymore. When I thought of placing 33% of my stake and seeing a goal early on, it seemed to be that the profit % would be too low compared to the full 100% loss that I would take when no goal comes.
However, all that matters is what is more profitable on average per trade, and the best choice seems to be to split the stake, by quite a lot, so that's what I'll do from now on. At least with that specific filter that achieves those goal %s on each timeframe.
I'm still not sure if LTD is superior to backing the next goal, but I'll figure it out by recording actual odds from various games and analyzing it.
All in all, I think it was a good day. I learnt quite a few things, placed at least 2 good trades, though not sure if I should have skipped the last one. I'll say the losses are just variance for today, or at least one of them.
Tomorrow I'll post the results of my back testing study paper trading all BTC picks for the past few days since 28/02/2021, it's too late already.
Cheers!
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Welcome to BTC. It's good to see that you're reading other blogs and trying to absorb as much information. The biggest thing I noticed from everyone on here is that trading is 80% mindset and 20% execution. You can know every detail about football but if you don't have discipline and confidence you will fail.
I also wouldn't dismiss paper trading completely. I've found that it helps overcome FOMO if you make your selections, entry and exit points in the morning. The following morning go back over them and see what ones were winners and if it played out the way you expected. Once you start seeing more winners than losers you know that the strategy is correct and it's just how you execute it.
Everyone is really friendly so to repeat what Matt said, if you have any questions feel free to ask!
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Thanks @Matt-Wood!
I'll start dumping the many questions I already have around the forum. It's great there is such a good community here, I was jumping from website to website trying to find something like this because as in poker, it's really hard and lonely to succeed alone.
I find that the many initial doubts and lack of self-confidence in one's actions without a proven success record are factors that mess with your head and can make you quit too early on.
I borrowed myself a few rules from the "Emotion free trading" eBook, such a great read. Just the fact of actually having them in writing I believe should be beneficial.
Cheers!
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Welcome to BTC, great to have you here.
This was a really interesting read, thanks for posting. I think almost everyone here has done something like that Man City game of yours. I certainly have more than once
You are totally right in that the rushed, not planned or poorly executed trades that lose hurt much more than the carefully ones.I am stealing some of your rules for myself
and will be following this closely as I think I will learn a lot from your methodical approach to things.Any questions you have just shout out, this place is great as there is always someone willing to help out if they can.
