The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for a 70th minute goal in Mannheim

Looking like neither team can buy a goal. It's the dreaded 2-2 again. When will I learn.

Richard Latimer

Going for a 70th minute goal in Mannheim

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Thanks guys ill have a look at both. Im new to excel but im getting better.

I have one super filter that can be used for several things. I want to see the strike rate of certain leagues after 60 minutes as this is all i trade but keep tracking everything on the filter as it has split stake, fhg and over 2.5 potentials for the future

That's the avenue I've gone down now. One filter and from it I'm finding all sorts of angles I'd never considered. I track every goal of every game along with red cards.

Martin Walker

Thanks guys ill have a look at both. Im new to excel but im getting better.

I have one super filter that can be used for several things. I want to see the strike rate of certain leagues after 60 minutes as this is all i trade but keep tracking everything on the filter as it has split stake, fhg and over 2.5 potentials for the future

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward do you keep tracking the leagues that dont convert and start trading them again when they do.
Ive been trying to figure out how to get my spreadsheet to show the strike rate of the leagues im trading whilst still tracking other leagues

That's exactly what I do mate, on my Split stake filter I want 90% strike rate so colour all leagues (columns) coloured green if 90% then 88 & 89% grey and 87% & less red... I do this daily when updating results... Bit of a fraff but best I can do for now.

Will be looking to get an experienced Excel VBA coder to set it up to measure league strike rate on one tab and then send a code back to the filter tab to colour the league column accordingly... Think this is do-able

Google excel smart filter. Alan showed me and it's truly the best thing I've done in ages. Can track everything while also tracking strike rate of limited criteria by just filtering stuff out.

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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward do you keep tracking the leagues that dont convert and start trading them again when they do.
Ive been trying to figure out how to get my spreadsheet to show the strike rate of the leagues im trading whilst still tracking other leagues

That's exactly what I do mate, on my Split stake filter I want 90% strike rate so colour all leagues (columns) coloured green if 90% then 88 & 89% grey and 87% & less red... I do this daily when updating results... Bit of a fraff but best I can do for now.

Will be looking to get an experienced Excel VBA coder to set it up to measure league strike rate on one tab and then send a code back to the filter tab to colour the league column accordingly... Think this is do-able

Martin Walker

@alan-steward do you keep tracking the leagues that dont convert and start trading them again when they do.
Ive been trying to figure out how to get my spreadsheet to show the strike rate of the leagues im trading whilst still tracking other leagues

Ryan

@alan-steward Yes this comes from a throw away goal list I created years ago - turns out its pretty good for SHG!

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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

HTLTD v HT LCS (0-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 / 1-0)

Excelsior v Jong Ajax

Interesting... No clear ELO Favourite and Goal Expectancy of 3.92... Interesting selection of HT scorelines

Oh, and the game is on Gary's SHG filter... Will def keep eye on this one for SHG

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So, bit of a story from my Split Stake selections yesterday (apart from too many late goals & just shy of 1.4pts red lol)... The matches I marked "Inconsistent Form" still had goals but didn't give the predicted home win plus the only 0-0 was the bott of the table clash which should poss have been a red flag anyway???

Plus results went against the two teams in Europa League although I believe they were all played in Germany so shouldn't have been a disadvantage to Bayer Leverkusen?

Interesting but not sure if I will continue to this extent in profiling the games as the filter is quite strong anyway way just by selecting leagues which convert with 90% strike rate with goal scored within my desired minute window.

0_1614590002385_Trades - 28-02-21.JPG

Ryan

HTLTD v HT LCS (0-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 / 1-0)

Excelsior v Jong Ajax

James Woodroffe

@andrew-bannister to be honest mate and it’s not a great philosophy but I trade very little football now I’ve just been blindly entering I know right not great but treating them like a set and forget. There’s always such good value and like the A League in Australia they just produce goals and if you’re only looking for 1. That Tenerife match today had shocking in play stats for 70 mins yet finished 3-1 and you could lay the draw on 70 for 1.49 I think it was from memory give or take a tick. I’m not looking for much I’m looking for a league that compliments my cricket and tennis trading by just adding a little cherry on top. If I was predominantly trading football I’d be more picky when I enter but like I said it’s not a great trading philosophy I just find it really profitable.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for 75th minute goal in Roma

Poor. Yesterday was decent enough. Today was poor.

Andrew Bannister

@james-woodroffe yeah I was initially trying something with U2.5 goals that didnt work out but I noticed that there were plenty of low scores but not many 0-0. 7 out of 10 so far this weekend have had SHG. How have you been selecting the games to go for because like you say, at half time the in play stats are p**s poor across the board?

James Woodroffe

@andrew-bannister mate it’s an awesome league to trade. @Keith-Anderson mentioned it a couple of weeks back for how good it is and how even with sometimes poor in play stats that you very rarely see a 0-0 draw. The odds and value are top notch. It’s the only league I bothered with today cause I was focusing on cricket but it is definitely helping to just boost the bank and taking away the stress of weekend trading.
I think I’ve taken one Red hit in about the last 14 matches from that league and it’s because some dude missed a 91st minute penalty.

Andrew Bannister

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@andrew-bannister the gift that keeps giving.

I've been watching spain 2 for a while now. Noticed that across the board there is approx 75% chance (1.33) of SHG, and pretty much every game at half time the odds are 1.5-1.6 for Ov 0.5 goals. Looks like value to me

Richard Latimer

Going for 75th minute goal in Roma

James Woodroffe

@andrew-bannister the gift that keeps giving.

Andrew Bannister

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

FHG at Oviedo now 1.71 and LTD is at 2.98 I assume if 0-0 at HT the LTD will again be around 2.02.

There's your goal.

James Woodroffe

FHG at Oviedo now 1.71 and LTD is at 2.98 I assume if 0-0 at HT the LTD will again be around 2.02.