2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks for the advice Ryan. I think I need to watch and learn.
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@lee-watson hi Lee, I’ve only been trading tennis a month or so now myself, and only been trading in total for a few months, so pretty wet behind the ears too. I think the key to trading tennis is nailing your entry and exit points. There can be such massive swings in a game, the market really seems to over react at key points in a match (after winning a set it going a break up for example). There is a good blog post in the website about entry points for tennis, cricket and NFL that I’d recommend reading as a starting point
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Today's sheets
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@lee-watson Hey buddy! It's not bothering me, my friend, that is exactly what I am here for.
So I'll start with...
Lay Bold 3-3 / 4-4
Nice and simple, in the 1st set only!! Lay the bold player if the score is 3-3 or 4-4 in the 1st set. The aim here is that it's a tight first set and the player that is in bold is a heavy fav and they are having a tougher first set so we can lay them for a low-risk trade and trade out in the first set.
WS1LNG
Stats on players winning set one and loses the next game and then also players losing the next 2 games. This one is % from the stats so the WS1LNG is the % that player wins set 1 and loses the next game - so here we have a chance to lay that player if they win the first set then we know that they have a 50% chance of dropping the next game, because they won the first set their price will be low and we can monitor it in the next game so if they are totally poor we can wait for them to lose that game if they are good then we trade out for a small loss. WS1 LN2G is the % of games they win the first set but lose the next 2 games - just to help you make a decision on how long to stay in your lay.
Frode's PJH - WTA @Frode-Lia
Here are his rules......
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with a good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sense I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as an example the strategy I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% plus in their projected hold. Ex: (don't remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre-game odds. In other words, high value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenka's serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost her first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on the first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after the backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after the backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stopping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it has worked very nicely. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its available when I do my research. Usually, before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for an email. And it has been very accurate (surprisingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to following them closely this autumn. -
@simon As I am new to this. I've never traded tennis however I layed Raonic at 1.11 and then cashed out for a profit when he was 1.15. It was only for £3.45 however I'm amazed at the amount I made on a few ticks especially as he was 1 set up but losing the 2nd set 3-2 at the time. Does this normally happen in tennis? I wouldn't even know where to start with a system
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@ryan-carruthers I'm new to tennis. I've never traded it but I am open to trying. I've looked at your PDF doc and don't understand it. Sorry to bother you but could you explain what everything means please? You've got players in bold and then numbers in two columns next to the game
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Today’s lay is Raonic. Don’t think I’ll get the chance to trade it but will follow with interest.
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Today's tennis sheets
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@simon true a great week matey! Looking forward to more to come!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
2 lays today, Gasquet and Fed again
Loss on Fed this time, hopefully Gasquet will be more profitable.
Another loss but much smaller as was able to nibble some liability out during the set. Poor day but great week!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
2 lays today, Gasquet and Fed again
Loss on Fed this time, hopefully Gasquet will be more profitable.
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@simon wahooo
A lot going on today should be a good day trading!
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2 lays today, Gasquet and Fed again
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Today's sheets!
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haha yeah WHAT haha
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@simon BOOOO!!!
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No lays today (boooo!)
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This is bloody brilliant this!!
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brilliant stuff . fire up some automation on these .
