I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity
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Hi all - Firstly, I’m a newly returning member to BTC. It’s great to be back. I wasn’t going to post this tale from today as quite frankly I’m embarrassed about how it went down but I have decided to share as 1) I think it helps me to be accountable for what I did and 2) I think it’s unbelievable how badly karma bit me for my sins.
A bit of background for context. I’m having been so good and following my trading plans and having my most profitable month yet.
Soooo on to the trade. I trade a lot on NBA. I have an in-play strategy that works well for me and I also love to scalp NBA pre-match and this has been a steady builder for me. My golden rule is never go in-play.
So I was looking to scalp the Portland/Oklahoma match today. I put a lay bet on Portland at $1.52 about 25 mins prior to tip off. I then got caught on a phone call and as I hung up had that sinking feeling....”oh no my trade”.
I quickly went in and 4 mins in to the game and the odds had come to about $1.35 ish and I should have traded out at that point for what I would describe as a disappointing but very manageable loss.
If this was a tv show at this point you would literally see the Angel on one shoulder and devil on the other. Angel: Take the loss, you’re having a great month and this won’t even dent that”. Devil: “Don’t be silly it’s early in Q1. You know basketball ebbs and flow. You’ll get this back”.
I choose to stay in knowing there will be momentum shifts. There always is in basketball and spoiler alert there will be in this game too but I’ll get to that.
So I stay in the trade and things start going pear shaped and by end of Q1 OKC are 13 points down and odds have crashed in to $1.20ish. I now make the bloody horrific call to not only stay in but throw a little more at it. The swing will come and I’ll probably green up when they get within 8 or so.
Well it keeps going south with Portland leading by 22 mid way through the 2nd quarter before OKC bring it back to 14 at the HT break. 3rd Qtr plays out the same as 2nd with Portland again jumping out to 26 point lead before OKC bring it back to 14 points at 3qtr time. But unbelievably during that Qtr at some point I once again threw a little bit more at this when odds were at $1.11
By 3qtr time OKC are down by 13 and there is a significant gap between lay and back sides. Lay still sotting at $1.10 and I’m sitting at a loss of my entire Feb profit with more liability sitting there at risk. I decide it’s time to call it. I’ve lost my entire profit for the month but at least I’m still in the black just and I just couldn’t bear to lose the entire liability. So I exit at $1.10 at 3Q time.
You’re going to guess what happens next. OKC immediately go on a tear and before I know it OKC have gone from 13 points down at 3qtr time to 5 points up late in the Qtr. Portland have gone from $1.10 (where I traded out at) to $2.20 before Portland ultimately go on to win the match.
It’s a horrid story. I broke all my rules. Don’t go in play, don’t chase, be structured and I paid the price and then when I did trade out karma gave me a good butt kicking to remind me never to be so stupid again.
Sorry for the length of this and for anyone who made it through this novel, you have done well.
My promise to myself is to never to make this mistake again. I have proven to myself consistently that when I stick to my strategies and trading plan I will always profit long term. There is no need to chase it or be reckless
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@sean-fitzgerald you are unlucky as you missed the two world series wins they had, they were amazing underdog performances
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@martin-futter said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@sean-fitzgerald said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@martin-futter said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
what's your team? I like the Yankees and Marlins, saw the Yankees play the Red Sox in London a couple of years ago was a great day out!
I’m also a Marlins fan. I saw them play SF Giants at Marlins Park back in 2014 (on my way back from World Cup in Brazil). I’ve been a Marlins fan ever since which has been challenging at times.
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@sean-fitzgerald said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@martin-futter said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@sean-fitzgerald really interesting, may be doing night shifts when baby comes so if NBA is still on I'll look into this, US sports are great would like to find some angles on Baseball and Ice Hockey too at some point
I’m a big MLB fan and thought there would be some interesting angles to look at trading from but there is very low liquidity in MLB matches for some reason so just not viable. Not sure about the NHL.
Yes the time zones are a challenge but NBA works well for me here in Aus as majority of matches are on here from mid morning to late afternoon.
Exciting news re: baby. Congrats!
what's your team? I like the Yankees and Marlins, saw the Yankees play the Red Sox in London a couple of years ago was a great day out!
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@martin-futter said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@sean-fitzgerald really interesting, may be doing night shifts when baby comes so if NBA is still on I'll look into this, US sports are great would like to find some angles on Baseball and Ice Hockey too at some point
I’m a big MLB fan and thought there would be some interesting angles to look at trading from but there is very low liquidity in MLB matches for some reason so just not viable. Not sure about the NHL.
Yes the time zones are a challenge but NBA works well for me here in Aus as majority of matches are on here from mid morning to late afternoon.
Exciting news re: baby. Congrats!
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@sean-fitzgerald really interesting, may be doing night shifts when baby comes so if NBA is still on I'll look into this, US sports are great would like to find some angles on Baseball and Ice Hockey too at some point
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@martin-futter said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@sean-fitzgerald how do you find the NBA liquidity wise? would be really interested in hearing more about your trading on that!
guess you have to get out when you take a call in future, even if you don't want to at that time.
thanks for sharing, this happened to me a lot in my early days of trading, nothing worse than ending up red and then seeing your original trade would still have done well had you stuck with it!
Hi Martin,
Liquidity is pretty good in the NBA. Generally dependant on who is playing tend to have about $80 - $100k matched pre tip off and generally over $750k towards back end of match.
I have an in play strategy where I look to back the Fave when they are trailing by 6+ in first half and look to green up when they bounce back to around SP. This has been quite successful (on small stakes with sample of 60 games) for me but since re-joining BTC i think I want to put some more rigour around entry and exit and test if split stakes would be beneficial.
I would love to hear your thoughts on NBA as I think there is huge opportunity trading given the ebb and flow of momentum.
Sean
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great read. I have been there myself, hanging on and hanging on and then when you you do get out it swings the other way.
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Thanks for posting Sean I can relate have been in a similar situation on more than one occasion.
For example, I fell asleep trading the tennis last night with open positions which is not a situation I’d recommend
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We can't always help the odd phone call but it just emphasises the need to restrict your trading sessions to those you are fairly confident of being able to concentrate without distractions if you're trading in play.
I think it also shows the value of trading software, if I get distracted it's one button on my screen to exit for current red/green, I don't need to think about how much I need to stake etc, just click that button as soon as something else demands my attention. If I'm only distracted for a minute or 2 then I can quite easily resume at a few ticks less/better depending on the trade.
I'm not tradng football in play at the moment, just pre-match scalping, but when I do I play a lot of correct score trades and there is nothing worse than hitting your target score for a big profit when distracted only to have another quick goal go in and bust it!
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@sean-fitzgerald how do you find the NBA liquidity wise? would be really interested in hearing more about your trading on that!
guess you have to get out when you take a call in future, even if you don't want to at that time.
thanks for sharing, this happened to me a lot in my early days of trading, nothing worse than ending up red and then seeing your original trade would still have done well had you stuck with it!
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@mark-maguire said in I broke all my rules and was punished - A tale of woe, I’ll discipline and downright stupidity:
@sean-fitzgerald thanks for the brutal honesty of this which is a brilliant lesson for a newbie and there are certainly some elements that I recognise. I'm learning more and more about the discipline required and knowing that more established traders deal with stuff like this really does help so thank you again
No worries Mark. It was a worthwhile experience to write it all down and remind myself the importance of staying disciplined.
I still consider myself a newbie too. I’ve been dabbling for 2 years but really only starting to put pieces together and getting consistent results last 6 months. It’s the reason I re-joined here as felt timing was right to step it up.
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@sean-fitzgerald thanks for the brutal honesty of this which is a brilliant lesson for a newbie and there are certainly some elements that I recognise. I'm learning more and more about the discipline required and knowing that more established traders deal with stuff like this really does help so thank you again
