2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simji said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Wasn't expecting the break then
Shouldn't have been she should have had those last two points
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True. Osaka was around 1.09 before the break. At 1.25 now with Brady to serve to stay in the match would think Osaka would jump back to 1.10? Or lower if she takes first set. Brady still doesn't look too much out of the game. And possibly get the odd chance in the second set could be a good low liability trade.
Osaka was as high 1.5's that a lot of value due to her starting point was low
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First game I've seen for a bit in tennis i haven't done much trading this year. After the Osaka break thought she would walk the first set but Brady seeming to come back into the game.
Brady looking to break. If she does I probably back Osaka to break straight back
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@ryan-carruthers If I'd used the Projected hold in the final just nowafter Osaka broke would have come in big time with Brady breaking straight back, i was expecting a comfortable Osaka win but not looking that way now.
Done ok made some stupid mistakes and got a bit greedy at times, a couple of bad days but other than falling asleep a couple of times with open positions definitely something to build on when there back from Australia.
The time difference is brutal
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@ryan-carruthers Completely agree about laying 1st set winner
Only really used the Projected holds strategy a bit will look at it more in the tournaments coming up.
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@chris-osborne Its like the saying nobody got poor for laying the draw in cricket - it's the same nobody got poor from laying the first set winner.
Also with Frode's WTA PJH has worked well for me this Aussie open
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5 points red on the Medvedev v Tsitsipas match today given that Medvedev was able to win in straight sets but certainly not going to get down over it. The beauty of tennis being that I can make that back quite quickly. I reckon there’s a huge chance we crown a new champ in Melbourne on Sunday.
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@ryan-carruthers definitely not
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@chris-osborne Nice! You can't beat the first set winner for ease can you??
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Straightforward Lay 1st set winner trade on the Phillips Island Final Kasatkina v Bouzcova.
Five breaks between them in the 1st set which Bouzcova took 6-4, laid her at 1.4, Kasatkina broke in the 5th game went on to win the set and subsequently the match.
Removed liability throughout the set after the break ending up with a 2.5 pt freebet on her.
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@chris-osborne thanks mate, I was happy but looking to improve as you said when the timezones become a little friendlier.
I think the Dubai- Doha double header may even start next week also so there we have considerably better time zones. I hear you re Adelaide will be interesting the field but with the volume of cricket coming up and with the schools still closed I reckon Adelaide might fall into the to hard basket. -
@james-woodroffe excellent results James
For me, the sooner tournaments are in a more civilised time zone for us the better.
Completely messed up the Osaka game and took a 2pt loss but offset with a coup,e of PTs profit in the Kasatkina game.
Should have made significant profits on both the Brady and Andreescu games but fell asleep with open positions in both next thing I know the games are over and ended up as 2pt losses on each which should have been the other way round.
Did lock up a 3pt profit on Osaka to win the tournament taken before the start
I know there’s a tournament in Adelaide next week but after that it’s Europe and North America. Probably give the Adelaide tournament a miss depending on the line up as looks like a number of players initially down to play gave pulled out and travelling back home. Brady also due to play but can’t see that happening now especially if she wins on Saturday
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Nice results today and happy with the way I went about things.
Managed to get a lay on Osaka at 1.09 up a set and a break leading 4-3 she threw in an absolute stinker but with the low odds and stake was looking at over 5 points green so took it at 4-4. Osaka then broke and held to close out the match.
The back of Muchova backfired in the first set broken at 4-5 but didn’t hesitate to lay Brady. Muchova totally controlled set 2 and I got my self back into a green position. Closed out at 1-1 in the 3rd and Much got broken so happy that I got out when I did. Was looking for an early break that didn’t come so wasn’t prepared to risk my green which was just over 2 points.
Had totally forgot about the other tournament being played so that was my trading for today. Super happy with 7 points. Still yet to scalp a single match and doubt I will for the Aussie leg but happy to look for value early backs and lay 1st set winners. It’s been a little up and down but hopefully will take some momentum onto the next events. -
Just a little something I’ve found. Serena is 12-0 against top 3 players in Grand Slams having not lost to a top 3 player since Justine Henin in 2007. Serena is also 8-0 in Oz Open Semi Finals.
