Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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For Wed:
Done a little more digging/analysis and a pattern emerging that doesn't necessarily need to be a strong fav. if the the teams are drawing after an an early 2nd half goal then a late goal is highly probable if it remains that way.
It's good because at first glance so many games become non qualifiers in the standard way of looking at LCS but it's clear the jig is far from up and there's plenty of angles I can look to explore/take advantage of.
Papertrading plan only.
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What would have been a decent enough day:
Rizespor with a late goal on 85 from 0-0 (good old Turkey)
Paris and Niort in a 6 goal thrilller that sadly ended with a missed pen after the early 2nd half goal set up the trade for 70th min entry.
Glenavon spanked 1-4 but 2 early 2nd half goals set up a 75th minute entry and the last was scored 83rd. -
@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer glad to hear you are feeling better, hope you are keeping well!
Yeah, I think it was just a migraine
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@richard-latimer glad to hear you are feeling better, hope you are keeping well!
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Feeling better so before I retire for the night:
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Didn't put out my entire plan today as been nursing a headache on and off.
No trade in Chile as 2nd half goals came just that little bit too early or too late depending on the strat.
Jong AZ would have been an attempt at a 2nd FHG which never came. Breda would have been too early on the LCS @ 2-0 from HT. All in, 1 losing trade.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Curico Unido inplay at the moment. On my papertrading plan for a 2nd half goal.
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I'm going to update my spreadsheet tomorrow but some interesting results today:
First off Bochum - What I'm calling LCS70 when the favourite is in the position of needing to score for either a win or a draw and the last goal was scored between 45-59. First trade is a win.
Second Heidenheim - Same again, this time it was 2-2. Not a scoreline I'm a fan of but when it's not the HT score somehow it seems to work better. Goals breed goals. 2-3 in the 72nd. Another win.
Game in Hungary didn't qualify and neither did Feyenoord or Willem.
Atalanta had an early goal but the 2nd FHG wasn't forthcoming. 2nd half didn't qualify. Loser there.
AZ didn't qualify.
Bursaspor had a late FHG and a LCS with goal coming on 68.
LASK Linz goals too early FH and none 2nd so a loser there.
Rijeka. FHG winner and 2nd half LCS loser.
Successful 2nd FHG in Wolfsburg.
Early goal in Barca but no more in FH. LCS winner 2nd half.
Saprissa FHG and LCS70 after away levelled early at 1-1.
Some good results and a few that could be avoided perhaps. Barca FHG came just before entry point. Will keep an eye on this but the earlier the goal the more chance of another. Of course this also knocks out Wolfsburg. Less is more though so....
Rijeka. Not many games 0-2 @ HT and the ones I have are showing 50/50 right now for a simple LCS.
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Todays papertrading plan. It's big but no money changing hands and I intend to find out as much as I can during this phase. Plus most of them will probably fall away as non qualifiers.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Not going into any detail as off to bed but Herediano currently 0-0HT is on my plan for a H2 goal LCS67th min or LCS75th.
That would have been a nice winner with goal coming 84th minute. Stops the rot of the 0-0 from 60 curse right now too.
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Not going into any detail as off to bed but Herediano currently 0-0HT is on my plan for a H2 goal LCS67th min or LCS75th.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So this is what came of todays papertrading plan. Another day, another 0-0. Getting beyond a joke now haha!
First off Carlisle. Let the side down. Scored early but then didn't follow suit by scoring another later one.
Mechelen drew a blank as pointed to above. Nil f*****g Nil haha!
Fener scored a FHG on the stroke of HT but then the dreaded curse of 1-0 happened which is almost as bad as 0-0.
After that there were a few good ones. Montpellier, Lens scoring in the 67th (that minute again), Netanya scoring a 3rd in the 83rd and Juve scoring a 2nd at the death.
Before Nancy & Paris FC brought things back to earth with a fud and a 1-1.
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Here we go again. Busy saturday. Can my plan hold it's own. Papertrading only:
Any questions please ask as I can't go through it all every day - Simply takes too long.
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Quite a bit to go through tomorrow but way too tired now.
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Nothing else qualified from my plan so it's a nice 100% haha!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
At the beginning I was only tracking draws from early Nov. For the remainder of that year, including all leagues I had 78% from 60th and 74% from 67th.
Purely for January, using the exact same criteria it's 50% from 60th and 46% from 67th haha!
That's 0-0's by the way.
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At the beginning I was only tracking draws from early Nov. For the remainder of that year, including all leagues I had 78% from 60th and 74% from 67th.
Purely for January, using the exact same criteria it's 50% from 60th and 46% from 67th haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
My strike rate is 75% and my 0-0s are 70% so theyre dragging me down a bit
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@richard-latimer I didn't mention the nil nils in my post but they've also been crap for me. Sure that will change...
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
My one FHG papertrade for the day is in. A good start haha!
And as per my post this morning it wouldn't qualify for SHG play unless further goals scored prior to 60th minute.
