LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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Gaaaaa so important not to watch the game
earlier comments and my poor will power caused me to trade out of the West Brom - Man City game after the first goal, just as I was concerned about the overall liability! Now sitting at 0-5 I wish I stuck to the plan, but this is the only occurrence of this to date, and I had already factored that I could withstand that liabililty, so shouldn’t have some it! Oh well, looks as though the whole night is turning out pretty well for this -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
26th Jan
Vilafranquense Vizela Portugal Segunda
Newcastle Leeds (absolutely no chance of a draw as we will thrash Leeds with Stellar Steve Bruce in charge)
W Brom Man City
Boavista Sporting
Southampton vs Arsenal has made it on for me, Arsenal odds kept falling
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@john-folan
No, but I'd avoid Serie B any time from March onwards. I'd also be wary of Eng National- Part time Players, Clubs Hit hard by COVID etc. -
Have the leagues changed since the first page list?
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Thanks, John. I realise I can come across as a bit of a smartarse, but ultimately I'm trying to help people win/not lose money/not lose sanity.
You don’t and to be honest the same messages need to be repeated again and again for them to sink in.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
26th Jan
Vilafranquense Vizela Portugal Segunda
Newcastle Leeds (absolutely no chance of a draw as we will thrash Leeds with Stellar Steve Bruce in charge)
W Brom Man City
Boavista Sporting
W Brom Man City
In this draw odds range, 101 games, 7 losses, 2 of which involved Man City.
Just sayin': think about your bank and your sanity. -
26th Jan
Vilafranquense Vizela Portugal Segunda
Newcastle Leeds (absolutely no chance of a draw as we will thrash Leeds with Stellar Steve Bruce in charge)
W Brom Man City
Boavista Sporting
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Thanks, John. I realise I can come across as a bit of a smartarse, but ultimately I'm trying to help people win/not lose money/not lose sanity.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 lossesPossibly more as I only added the 2.2 qualification very recently.
I must stress, though, this strategy WILL have downturns. Largest losing month is around 17 points. Your bank (and your fortitude) has to be able to withstand those.
Of course. Everything does. Taking out the odds of 5.5-6.5 happily removes both the Liverpool and PSG dud though. Risk vs reward isn't it.
Agreed.
I think we are talking at cross purposes. My concern is that people look at this, try it, win a few, then start upping the stakes and it takes an inevitable downturn.
For example, here is the graph for the currently least profitable prices: 5.5-6.5
Looks like this followed a predictable pattern, then recently started to take an upturn.
My point is that someone, who started looking at this from game 240 onwards could end reading anything into it. The upturn only covers about 70 games.
Is this the start of a new upward trend for these odds ranges? Is it a fluke? No idea. Need a lot more data.I'm just saying you can interpret small datasets in so many ways. I'm not criticising anyone, either. Just reminding people of what they already probably know, but we all can get side-tracked by randomness.
This post here needs posting at the top of the forum. Very well put
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What I have noticed is that when the favourite is a big favourite (i.e. PSG, Bayern, Porto, Man City), the draw price tends to rise in the hours before kick-off.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I got 5 on smarkets this morning:
I've been doing this since about September 20. The data I've pulled is from various sources. The vast majority of the time the odds are bet365 max odds. Sometimes you get lower odds, sometimes higher depending when you place the trade.
Yeah, maybe it would be a good idea to place it earlier. At least it won haha!
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I got 5 on smarkets this morning:
I've been doing this since about September 20. The data I've pulled is from various sources. The vast majority of the time the odds are bet365 max odds. Sometimes you get lower odds, sometimes higher depending when you place the trade.
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Just curious because the game tonight had quite a discrepancy on bet365odds to betfair odds. Are your results against what you have personally been able to achieve or are they against the bet365 odds? How long have you been physically doing this?
Before the match best price draw odds were 5.7/5.8 and bet365 odds were 5.25. I waited to get 5.5 but then of course as has been the case a few times recently you run the risk of a crazy early goal.
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Turkey is late goal heaven a lot of the time.
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@stuart-capstick Thanks dude, also using the Double chance market is paying off a treat while I have a small bank, great bit of advice. Thought Galatasaray were gonna let me down til the 87th min I think it was.
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1% lay stake. As per the sheet.
I use another exchange for this as well. Just keeps the distance between this and my more active trading.
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@stuart-capstick For clarity, do you mean 1% of your stake as liability? or 1% as the backers stake? Good idea about having a separate bank for this strategy and its something I've been toying with and although I know how I could do it, not sure the best way to implement it. I suppose the best way is to have a spreadsheet dedicated to that strat and then decide on a starting bank (to determine pts) and then just log it from there.
As always, thanks for the post man!! really appreciate you giving back to the community
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25th Jan
Farense Porto 2015
It's time to talk about staking. I've looked at this in some detail and I think the most appropriate staking method is level stakes.
This strategy has a longest losing run of 4 so far, which is a little less than what you would expect from a data set of over 4,000 and the odds it deals with.
However, on any given weekend, you could lose over 16 points (4 losses in a row, one win and say, another loss). Look at the monthly breakdowns: it can be volatile, but doesn't have a losing year or 6 month period. For your own mental health, stick to level stakes of 1%. You'll average about 4-6 points a month.
Which leads me on to the next question. This, for me, is very much a secondary strategy. I divided up my bank such that 100 points were for this and this alone. The rest of the bank is for the other trades I make. -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
24th Jan
This is what's on offer today:
Ignore the Porto game as that isn't taking place today.
Dijon Strasbourg is worth keeping an eye on as Strasbourg is around 2.
That really should have read "Whatever you do, don't lay the draw in a game with Dijon as they have drawn home 7 times at home this season"
Anyway, 1.28 points (or 3.92 if you avoided Dijon)
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just looking and, in France at least, the odds range to avoid is 3.4 to 3.49- loses 8 points. The 3.25 to 3.4 wins you 13.
The last time there was a game with away between 2 and 2.2 and the draw odds under 3.4 was 2018. Just shows that in this case the home draw specialists, Dijon, played to form.
Across all the leagues, that odds range, 3.4 to 3.49, wins you 38 points.That's interesting to note but I guess the sample size is quite small when you're talking about such a small range? In any case, fingers crossed for this last game.
