Started From the Bottom (Almost)
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1 point up yesterday from the Celtic game. Really happy with this one, noted the signs early yesterday with Celtic having a few players out and I actually think this worked in my favour as it was a really open game and it was a great free-kick for the first goal too. Most pleasing thing was, it was a similar scenario to what I was discussing in last week's deep dive. Again, sometimes it pays to not always go with a blanket 'no trade' and to see if a different kind of opportunity is created.
Just one game today but won't be too fussed if it doesn't come off as there seems to be a fair bit tomorrow;
Burnley v Man U for a late goal.
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Here are today's selections and hopefully putting into practice the above. As mentioned yesterday just over 1.5 points down from Saturday and a few instances of a goal coming too early and a double whammy in the Leverkusen game. Missed out on backing the equaliser but could see a winner coming for the home team, unfortunately that's not how the game played out. And a further loss on the Real Madrid game as well. Back for a new week though with lots of football to hopefully turn this around.
Lamia v AEK
Liege v Waasland-Beveren
Celtic v HibernianNeil Lennon and 13 first team players are self-isolating however so may not trade the Celtic game. Not saying no to it, just watching extra closely should it qualify.
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So time for a deep dive. It's been a frustrating few days as I've bounced around break even without really taking a bad trade imo.
One thing that has been a feature this week though has been hesitation, temptation and backing my own instincts.
For me, hesitation has always been a bit of an issue and this kind of leads into me backing my own instincts. I mentioned it at the time but it was the Napoli game and the PSG game on the same night that prompted the idea for this particular post. At first I put my decision to not enter the Napoli v Spezia game down to bad luck but up on further analysis, I have started to wonder whether I could have predicted a goal going the other way. For context, the game was at 1-1 as it came to the latter stages and Napoli were seeing a lot of possession and getting into good positions but not really creating anything too clear cut and it was at this point I decided against it. However, they were leaving themselves pretty open at the back so there was potential for a counter attack should Spezia get it right.
In my defence, I wasn't certain that a goal was going to come so in some respects, I think I may have been right to stay out of the trade yet I look back on it and think, perhaps the signs were there? As I mentioned in last weeks analysis, we only need one goal and we don't care who it comes for or how it comes. I spend a lot of time focussing on my analysis of how the favourite is performing but should I be giving more weight to the performance of the underdog? Of course sometimes, the plan is to run the clock down and just clear their lines at all costs but other times there is a desire for the underdog to spring a quick counter attack and go for the winner. If I think back now, I can't be sure of how Spezia intended to play when they did get the ball back which may go some way to helping me improve my analysis of live pictures in-play. I know I said that my game-reading skills were improving but am I missing parts of the bigger picture he? Possibly?
In games such as this one, there is almost an expectation that the heavy favourite will score regardless of how well they are playing and that was the trap I was making sure I didn't fall into. There have been numerous examples recently where games involving heavy favourites have not seen an expected later winner/equaliser. These examples in particular highlight the importance of trading what your eyes are seeing and not the pre-game stats and previous results.
This brings me nicely on to a game from the same night and it was the St-Etienne v PSG game and this is an example of where I feel I'm getting much better at resisting the temptation to back another goal where there doesn't appear to be one coming. I think it's true that the decision not to trade can be just as beneficial to your overall profits than a winning trade that you have taken a chance on. In fact, I believe it's been proven by traders on here that a more risk averse approach can result in being more profitable than someone who takes those extra chances.
This game in particular, PSG offered very little. In fact at one point I considered entering as I was expecting a St Etienne goal such was the pressure they were applying in the early period of the second-half. Ultimately, though other than a few bursts into the box from Mbappe towards the end, PSG never really looked like they were going to force a winner. This was of course Mauricio Pochettino's first game in charge but there didn't appear to be much of that new manager bounce about them, they actually looked pretty fragile defensively.
In some ways, taking both of these games as trades, it wouldn't have made much of a difference as I'd still have been around break even (maybe slightly red) but to borrow the age old football cliche, it's important to turn those draws into wins. I think that's the main point of this post in reality, how can I turn those no trades into green trades? Well obviously I can't affect what happens on the pitch but I think I need to start seeing the bigger picture, focussing on the team pushing for the win but also take in to consideration what happens when they lose the ball, are they going for a goal or are they happy to take a free-kick and run the clock down? Is there a chance of a goal at both ends and should that affect how I trade the game or not? if a team is creating chance after chance does it matter if the other team have the desire to get one of their own or not as the favourite is creating more than enough chances for me to reasonably expect me that they will convert one?
I think the answer to the above questions is that there is no magic bullet with any of this, I have to start seeing the bigger picture in these games and focussing on each one on it's own merits rather than the tunnel vision that appears to be preventing me from trusting my instincts.
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@martin-futter about 1.5 points red from two trades unfortunately. There were another 2 or 3 I think where the goals came a touch too early.
Taking the day off today, won’t really have much chance to sit down for a prolonged period to actually trade today so not going to force it I don’t think.
Will be back on it tomorrow and will hopefully get some time to type up a deeper analysis of the last weeks events.
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@ryan-carruthers said in Started From the Bottom (Almost):
@matthew-biggins I'm looking forward to reading it and seeing if @Martin-futter or I can help you out with that ankle injury!
I was so confused by this comment at first, thought I was being called on as a Physio!
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A point green from yesterday. Waited until 79 mins to back the first goal at Cambuur for odds of 2.04.
On to today, I know there's an issue with the football ratings today so I've gone through and had a look at the fixtures and come up with the below list. May not get chance to trade the games this evening so will look to focus my attentions on the games this afternoon.
Saturday's have always been a bit hit and miss for me so I've picked games I know I can get live pictures for and games that are outside of the 3pm English rush.
Good luck today everyone.
Benevento v Atalanta
Leverkusen v Bremen
Mainz v Frankfurt
Schalke v Hoffenheim
Galatasaray v Genclerbirligi
Kortijk v Genk
Granada v Barcelona
Emmen v Twente
AC Milan v Torino
Dijon v Marseille
Nimes v Lille
PSG v Brest
Osasuna v Real MadridEDIT: Ratings back up now.....just removed one from the list as a result.
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@matthew-biggins I'm looking forward to reading it and seeing if @Martin-futter or I can help you out with that ankle injury!
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@ryan-carruthers looking forward to writing it mate. It will contain something that I just can't seem to shake, like a niggling ankle injury.
If anything that's the one thing that would stop me going full-time even if I could. Work/Life balance is so important.
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No qualifiers last night. Three to look for tonight.
Monchengladbach v Bayern
Cambuur v Voldehnham
Famalicao v Porto -
@matthew-biggins Looking forward to reading about this on the deeper analysis next week
Yes. Waiting to enter a later trade then if it doesn't work out is horrid going into the weekend. Not just for trading related stuff but everything, family etc...
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Just one trade took my fancy yesterday and of course it was a losing one. LCS in Lille but didn't quite come off. Spent a long time thinking about the Napoli game before deciding not to enter, just looked to me like 'one of those games' where the favourite would end up frustrated (well I guess they were in the end as the goal came for the other team) but hopefully you get my drift. Although on reflection, this game in particular has given me an idea for when I do my deeper analysis next week
Just a couple of selections tonight but will probably only look to enter the Sporting game. Really don't fancy staying up for the 9pm kick offs most of the time, especially if I'm up early tomorrow.
Nacional v Sporting
Braga v Maritimo -
Afternoon all, fair bit to go at today, following the below games for a late goal;
Besiktas v Rizespor
Napoli v Spezia
Asteras v Olympiakos
Eupen v Genk
Lille v Angers
Lyon v Lille
St. Etienne v PSG
Bilbao v Barcelona -
@ryan-carruthers it depends mate tbh. If there’s a lot of games going on I’ll restrict to the games where I can get live pictures as I find that easier to follow on a busy day.
I do prefer live pictures tbf but I certainly wouldn’t rule out a game because I can’t get any, unless of course I need to filter some out.
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@matthew-biggins Indeed, always some good opportunities there. You will only trade with Live pics?
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@matthew-biggins Excellent post, I completely agree. It was pretty torrential rain though!
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@ryan-carruthers I also think the fact they are mostly Sat 3pm's has put me off recently as well, particularly if I can't get live pictures.
Good to know that there are opportunities there though, cheers Ryan.
