Daily Shortlist
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Ive been sharing my daily shortlist in the football thread and just thought it might be easier to share it here. Basically this is my shortlist of games which i plan to monitor for the day. I dont get involved in every game on there and i dont always get chance to monitor every game. Like everyone else, i have other commitments too so sometimes i may only dip in and out or i may just trade the evenings games as a session, it depends on my plans. I take my trading seriously & work hard at it but i dont let it control my life. Hopefully i can learn from people here and others can see what im doing
The games on my shortlist come from a variety of sources, i have 2 filters which are doing well in their own right and then i have a wider filter which pulls in most of the days games, this list shows me average goals, average SH goals, goals 60-90, goals 70-90, home scored/conceded, away scored/conceded plus a couple of others. So i will see what hasnt been included on my filters and check out this list for further games. Finally i will go through flash scores and see what games are on in the leagues i tend to lean towards
Once i have my long list i will start to do a bit of research on each game just to see if it makes my shortlist. Again i just check on flashscores to try to build an understanding of the teams:
Motivation - This only tends to come in later in the season where the games become quite business-like but is massively important and massively under-rated. I quite like the tactical thought of trading a game which one team needs points for relegation/promotion and working out how it will play out as i think im quite good at it but theres no harm in dodging these altogether
League Tables - I check out the position and the scoring record for the season. I like it when the home position & scoring is better than the overall for the home team and the same for the away, this suggests there could be a discrepancy in the markets or an added pressure on that team to do well because next week they are away and they know they are terrible away! I either want both teams to be scoring & conceding loads OR if i am banking on one particularly stronger team then i want to see the weaker team conceding lots aswell. Sometimes you get a team low in the table who score few and concede few which isnt ideal, even against a heavy favourite
Goal Times - I then look at the last 5 home games for home and 5 away for away to see if these teams score or concede late. Im just after spotting a pattern of teams which close up for the last 20 minutes and avoiding those. Again, you often find teams lean towards goals early in the half and this is not really what im after. It literally takes 20 seconds but i think its a massive step for me, especially as my filters dont take into account goal times. I dont have a set criteria but at minimum i want 6 or 7 of the 10 games to have a goal post 70'So that pretty much gives me my shortlist for the day. On my list you will see 2 times, one is KO time and the other is the time i start to look at the game. I dont want to be following games for the first 60', i just start looking at 60' to see what has happened so far and keep an eye from there
I have posted about 125 games shortlists over the last 10 days or so, ill update this post later to show the strike rates. My aim is to improve that SR but also beat that SR on my trades
Any questions fire away!
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First day trading the new year. Ive got a few on the shortlist:
Im going to take it really easy today. Its been a strange couple of weeks for trading and its a big month so i want to get off to a decent start and just get steadily back into it.
Good luck today!
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30.12.20
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@lee-woodman said in Daily Shortlist:
29.12.20
good old Bolivia! Hope you get decent odds and liquidity
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29.12.20
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Not the best day yesterday
None today. Taking the day off trading so not looking for anything, need to analyse December fully ahead of the new month
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@martin-futter Yes I like 70’ so I’m aiming for around that point and just seeking what I feel is a good value entry point. My average odds for the month has been 2.1
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@martin-futter It went quite well, 7 of 9 had a goal after 60' and the same 7 had a goal after 70'
Ive had a quick look at the 150 or so games so far and the SR on the games which were pre-filtered is decent but not as good on the unfilter/manual games so its pretty obvious where to focus my attention!
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27.12.20
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Hope everyone had a good christmas! Not as many games on today as i thought but i dont want to add games for the sake of it and theres still plenty to check out. Plus, ive got so many toys to build & help test today that i dont plan on trading a huge amount! Good luck today!
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@alastair-todd I tend to lay rather than back but no real reason for that, probably just for the sake of getting a point or whatever as my returns. The next unders market generally has better liquidity than CS markets
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@lee-woodman said in Daily Shortlist:
Shortlist for the next couple of days! Even christmas day has games if youve nothing better to do! Personally i wont be doing anything but just putting here as ill record them anyway. Back on boxing day for a busy day of football!
Lee, this is really good stuff, thanks. Do you back the next 0.5 goal or lay the current score?
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Shortlist for the next couple of days! Even christmas day has games if youve nothing better to do! Personally i wont be doing anything but just putting here as ill record them anyway. Back on boxing day for a busy day of football!
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23.12.20
