U2.5 Filter?
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Hi guys,
So I've been looking through a couple of the filter options for an under 2.5 goals strategy using time decay.
I've had a look at potential HT 0-0 %, but thought this would be more useful - any thoughts much appreciated!
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@michael-westerberg I was thinking about u 2.5 with the same stats. But the entry point at the beginning of the game and the exit point in 15-20 minute
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@mark-gorton
Oh yes the painful wait, thats a mix of dread and excitement all rolled into one, I just think of it as an opportunity should the things I am looking for come to the fore front if not then there's always another I'll get on with my day
I try to not get too in my head about it
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@michael-westerberg Hi Micheal, I have just joined the BTC group and have little trading experience, however, this is one of the first trades I looked at and although there seems to be lots of games that don't have a score after 10 mins ( looking at Flash Score) I know there is a need to have it confirmed by data. Have you been able to up the % on your filter. If its Ok with you I will set it up and see what pops out, although data collection isn't my thing I can set up a spread sheet and work it out from there. Plus what do you take to kill the stress of waiting 10 mins....all the best Mark
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@michael-westerberg I’d track all the results as it’s the same strategy it wouldn’t be too tough to check the results and it’s the same strategy and also for what I will advise in a moment it will help too.
Then if you are narrowing down you have the other games so you can compare your notes to see if you are on the right track - I go with what has to happen (I always bang on about this!) so with the under 2.5 goals no goals, quieter match etc.... you can add to this list. Then that will help narrow it down, now you can track your narrow down process as well as the in play to find a way of getting the right games to trade.
Does that help?
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@michael-westerberg
"...but seems to be the 2 I don't pick are fine, and 1/2 of the 3 I do tend to have the early goals."
This is known as the Law of Sod
One thing I did start doing was looking at lineups pregame, if any of my selection were missing key players they became more of a priority (basically the opposite to what you would do if looking for goals to be scored). So if a Harry Kane or Aguero was missing from a game I was watching it got highlighted. You might already be doing this.
Do you exit for a loss if an early goal goes in or do you let it run?
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Ah thanks both, it's actually nice to be engaged with in a forum for once (at other places, not BTC!).
According to my stats, I'm averaging around 63% - not great, but certainly not terrible. Its definitely my match selection that needs tweaking - I narrow my list down to 4/5 games, and pick the best 3 (very conscious about overtrading), but seems to be the 2 I don't pick are fine, and 1/2 of the 3 I do tend to have the early goals.
I think the filter is decent, but selection needs work - any of you guys got any top tips (without giving away your own edge of course!) Its that or do all 4/5 games to spread my chances a bit better - but juggling 1 or 2 other strategies at the same time!
As far as exit points go, I tend to give it a few minutes to let the market settle - I don't necessarily have a strict exit point (like waiting until half time)...
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I'm thinking to give it 5-10 minutes and generally see how the game is going. Ideally I want 2 close-matched teams with a slow start. In and out within 5-10 minutes.
I figure that 2 closely matched teams with a slow start will have a bigger fluctuation in the odds than an odds-on vs dog...
Also considering a strong dog at home as a potential, but still 50/50 on that one!
