The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Stuart Capstick]

Regression to the mean, on the case of teams averaging over 2.4.

[Richard Latimer]

Will either be looking to LTD after 69 mins on these or backing over 1.5 SH goals a little way into the SH.

Actually forget Brno. Don't like it when the home team has been promoted and is playing at a higher level until they've played 10 matches at home.

[Richard Latimer]

Got these 2 tomorrow on the expecting goals front but so far France has been very bad for this ratings based strategy:

I'll be laying under 1.5 SHG @ HT in Celtic.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm looking at these today:

Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.

The coloured numbers are averages for the home teams in each respective half by the way.

I'll be leaving the Sparta game alone. Thus far between 1.6-2.3 on the averages has proven to be the sweet spot. That may be changing as I notice 2.4 is beginning to collect a little more favourable data to back it up. For the time being however, I will just track that one.

Typical. Would have been a nice green by now haha

Just took a look at this and noticed there were no further goals so ultimatelystaying out was the right play. First half play would have been for nothing if only red removed and any further SH play would have been all red. Another in the ave 2.4 goals to home team bracket. It's not looking better at all anymore. In addition to this I looked at how these have faired for FH goals when hoem team ave for entire game is 2.4 and once again it's poor, very very poor.

Data is obviously limited at present in so far as I've only tracked since beginning of Nov but right now all I know is it's very very obvious and I coudn't trust the data above 2.3.

[Richard Latimer]

With quick sh goals in psv that's the end for today. Another day where I didn't lose so that's all good haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Wary of 1-0 HT scoreline in Kristiansund and leaving the 3-0 alone in Valerenga. Planning to get involved in Ashdod. (Israel).

Escaped that one a bit too quickly without realising it was VAR and there was no imminent danger. Took less green than should have.

1 goal is small green. Another would be golden.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Wary of 1-0 HT scoreline in Kristiansund and leaving the 3-0 alone in Valerenga. Planning to get involved in Ashdod. (Israel).

Escaped that one a bit too quickly without realising it was VAR and there was no imminent danger. Took less green than should have.

[A Former User]

@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LTD Valencia - Sevilla

0-1. Tidy

[Richard Latimer]

Wary of 1-0 HT scoreline in Kristiansund and leaving the 3-0 alone in Valerenga. Planning to get involved in Ashdod. (Israel).

[A Former User]

LTD Valencia - Sevilla

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm looking at these today:

Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.

The coloured numbers are averages for the home teams in each respective half by the way.

I'll be leaving the Sparta game alone. Thus far between 1.6-2.3 on the averages has proven to be the sweet spot. That may be changing as I notice 2.4 is beginning to collect a little more favourable data to back it up. For the time being however, I will just track that one.

Typical. Would have been a nice green by now haha

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm looking at these today:

Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.

The coloured numbers are averages for the home teams in each respective half by the way.

I'll be leaving the Sparta game alone. Thus far between 1.6-2.3 on the averages has proven to be the sweet spot. That may be changing as I notice 2.4 is beginning to collect a little more favourable data to back it up. For the time being however, I will just track that one.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm looking at these today:

Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.

The coloured numbers are averages for the home teams in each respective half by the way.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm looking at these today:

Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.

[James Woodroffe]

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Small LCS - LTD in Turkey at Hatayspor 2.0 and 1.70 on 70 mins.

Goal 0-1 not a great green on the LTD as the Dog scored but will be ok if the Fav equalises. 1.43 points as it stands.

Apologies the away team was actually a slight favourite with the home team dominating.

[James Woodroffe]

Small LCS - LTD in Turkey at Hatayspor 2.0 and 1.70 on 70 mins.

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri if you are on about Keith, well i said it was a poor trade when it won, because it was. Doing that trade 100 times you would definitely be in a negative. He jumped on me if you read back matey. I only bit cause he was being funny.

probably a better way to put this would have been:

'Not a trade for me personally I don't like the stats' or something of that nature.

Obviously, you do not actually know the trade would have lost money over 100 times of doing it, that's just a subjective opinion and not fact.

Maybe he has the sports almanac @Martin-Futter

If he does the Biff will be looking for him

Damnit @James-Woodroffe you beat me to it

[James Woodroffe]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri if you are on about Keith, well i said it was a poor trade when it won, because it was. Doing that trade 100 times you would definitely be in a negative. He jumped on me if you read back matey. I only bit cause he was being funny.

probably a better way to put this would have been:

'Not a trade for me personally I don't like the stats' or something of that nature.

Obviously, you do not actually know the trade would have lost money over 100 times of doing it, that's just a subjective opinion and not fact.

Maybe he has the sports almanac @Martin-Futter

One day a pesky kid and a crazy old man are gunna come looking for that book!

[A Former User]

@martin-walker spot on mate

[Martin Walker]

@darri i was on it aswell. Just throwing it out there that if it wins its the desired outcome regardless of anything so i dont believe a winner can be bad.