Insomnia Messing With My Trading Plan New Trader
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Whilst I enjoy trading and am ok with losing trades if everything in my view lines up, especially if its backed up in the trading forum.
My problem at the moment is not sticking to my trading plan. I have my plan in place but add to it in the middle of the night with the odd bet which normaly loses.
To counter act this I think I will start my accountability blog in the hope that I stop putting trades (bets) on at 1am when I know nothing about whats going on.
Here are my main selections and plan for 16/12/20
Under 2.5 Goals entry just prior to kick off (liquidity dependant) Exit half time
Sochi v Dynamo Moscow
Fulham v BrightonOver 1.5 Goals Entry point dependant on odds and team selection
Liberec v Opava
Lyon v Brest
Zlin v Slavia Prague
Krasnodar v Ufa
Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg
PSG v LorientCant get my head round when goals are likely to be scored Fhg or Shg will have to try and suss it out. Hoping this blog will help my trades and stop me blindly betting as it really pisses me off when I know I shouldnt be doing it.
Fulham v Brighton still happy with under 1.5 goals but stats indicate Fulham have conceded early odds point to 69%chance of FHG puts me off the trade going to leave that on the back burner
Sochi v Dynamo Moscow odds showing 63% chance of fhg So the odds not lining up with my filter just going to record the results without getting involved.2 games at 13.00
Liberec v Opava
Partizan v Mladost
expecting goals going to watch the ips.Just as a note this blog is only for me to try and improve my trading skills I know nothing!!
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@chris-osborne no mate I haven’t tracked the odds on any of the games found that awkward I was a bit over enthusiastic on the filter front slightly less on the adding data.
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@nick-terracciano Ok nothing conclusive, are you tracking odds in your paper trades, if not could be worth it to see if that has any impact.
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@chris-osborne These are the results after cutting out leagues, I just used the leagues Alan uses on one of his 1.5 filters.
These are the results I got
Filter 1Games Wins Losses
218 182 36 83%Filter 2
Games Wins Losses
169 142 27 84%Looks good to me, not sure if I have quite enough data as yet, want to get started and make some trades its been about 3 wks since I last traded anything. Doesnt look like theres much between the filters SR but I have more results on Filter 1 so maybe I should do those games for a month and see how it goes, maybe then add filter 2 into the mix.
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Looking strong @nick-terracciano
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@chris-osborne Cheers Chris thats what I will do first and let you know how its going. Have no problem sharing it once I know it makes a profit, at the rate its going should be ready by 2030.
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@nick-terracciano Looks promising. Your probably going to have to start cutting out leagues fairly quickly as poor liquidity will be your problem and you'll have trouble getting matched.
As an exercise for yourself, why not cut out the lower leagues on both filters and then see where your strike rate is, might guide you as to which of the filters to trade.
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So this is where I am started collecting data on several filters since February. Since that time I have been adding filters and colllecting data. Some filters are ones shared from members also the BTC filters and a few of my own.
Going through the results which is taken me a ton of time, know I am going around this the slow way but I am using Neat office and have no idea about analising the data quickly.
Decided to start on the over 1.5 goal filters and to keep this short my best 2 filters in that batch and both similar came out at 83%Sr with no goals in the first 15 mins. Trade out on goal being scored
Have not really stuck to one filter when trading while I know this is a mistake, I can sill take lessons from the experience.I have not cut out any leagues as yet so that I could get as much data as possible.
Hopefully all my figures are right, have looked quickly online to try and find how to sort the data quickly but not really found what I need so been using a calculator and hope my figures are all correct.Filter 1 = 297 Games
Filter 2 = 224 Games
Todays Games
Filter 1
Filter 1 Germany Regionalliga Bayern 31/08/2021 18:00:00 Augsburg II Furth II
Filter 1 Iceland Inkasso-deildin 31/08/2021 19:00:00 Kordrengir Olafsvik
Filter 1 Germany Regionalliga Bayern 31/08/2021 17:00:00 Eichstatt Aschaffenburg
Filter 2 Iceland Inkasso-deildin 31/08/2021 19:00:00 Afturelding Vestri
Filter 2 Iceland Inkasso-deildin 31/08/2021 19:00:00 Kordrengir Olafsvik
Filter 2 Germany Regionalliga Bayern 31/08/2021 17:00:00 Eichstatt Aschaffenburg
Want to start trading 1 of these filter starting tomorow still not sure which one to go with
maybe I should just trade games that appear in both filters.
Filter 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K-ujXTxyCBYCXl-gK6rYNMqWOsQ3nRIfde2AXBH0ZGo/edit#gid=0Filter 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ISUAegSw0YRN-XEccIHqDnEX_Jdq77bmSK3rC4QbkeU/edit?usp=sharing
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@nick-terracciano said in Insomnia Messing With My Trading Plan New Trader:
@nick-terracciano 9 months in and its been a great journey so far. Overall my trading has improved my discipline is much better and my recording of results and data although extremely time consuming will Im sure improve in time.
Still using small stakes which is fine. Still have allot to learn but feel with the info available the members forum which has enough information on it to fill a book all the answers are here its just being able to implement the info.looking foreward to the horse racing software being available as I think being in at the begining will be of help
this is great to hear, truly!
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@darri Cheers mate the really good thing for me is that 9 months have gone by and I have progressed. Its getting a bit more systamatic in the way I do things which speeds up the way I sort the data.
Lucky for me my partner lets me live my life how I want, bless her..Thanks for commenting and cheers for all the stuff you do!! -
@nick-terracciano well done bud, great to see the changes you have made. The thing with trading and recording results is think about if this was your job, spending the time to get the data right and monitored well always pays dividends, so when this is just a small side hustle its no different. Recording data is the best way to fight discipline issues as you have confidence that x strategy will perform x points over a long sample. 100% worth the time and effort. The more you treat trading as if it was your business the better professional mindset you will have for it. So yes it may take an hour at night but actually imagine if you were doing this with a bigger bank and had that freedom, that hour wouldn't feel so labour some. Trust me iv put hours/days/weeks/months into strategies only for me to ditch them for something else, its the part of trading we have to accept as we strive for more profit. Keep going
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@nick-terracciano 9 months in and its been a great journey so far. Overall my trading has improved my discipline is much better and my recording of results and data although extremely time consuming will Im sure improve in time.
Still using small stakes which is fine. Still have allot to learn but feel with the info available the members forum which has enough information on it to fill a book all the answers are here its just being able to implement the info.looking foreward to the horse racing software being available as I think being in at the begining will be of help
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@nick-terracciano said in Insomnia Messing With My Trading Plan New Trader:
Not going to post my weekend results as they were awful well down but looking at it now a good lesson learnt.
Setting up a bit differently, finding sitting at the pc waiting for certain periods in matches leads me to wander into games I have not researched, which I would have thought would have been ok if the stats were good but on the weekends results I am not so sure.
This week will be be more about my timing pre match research and only looking at the matches at the the times I need to. I 100% know that FOMO is a problem for me and I need to cut it out, to improve my own trading
Hi mate, sounds like a lot of indiscipline so far, hope you can turn it around!
Just stick to the plan and do other things in the time inbetween, maybe stick something on a tv or play a game and set your phone alarm for the times you need to trade. Worst thing you can do is sit around getting tempted
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Not going to post my weekend results as they were awful well down but looking at it now a good lesson learnt.
Setting up a bit differently, finding sitting at the pc waiting for certain periods in matches leads me to wander into games I have not researched, which I would have thought would have been ok if the stats were good but on the weekends results I am not so sure.
This week will be be more about my timing pre match research and only looking at the matches at the the times I need to. I 100% know that FOMO is a problem for me and I need to cut it out, to improve my own trading
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Good Day yesterday much more picky with selections and entry points best day yet and only 3 trades which were as follows
Aston Villa v Burnley (Loss)
laid the draw at around 70 mins stats patiently waited for favourable odds 1.88 were good backed up on the forum lost but still ok with the tradeNacional Potosi v Guabira (Profit)
Backed at 11.5 Layed 2.46 entered early great result came from filterYellow-Red Mechelen v Club Brugge (Profit)
Ryans filter layed the draw odds 2.72
Really pleased 3 trades all small stakes again but made as much in one day than the last 6 days combined.
Finding the forum really useful to back up my thoughts, and look at other opportunities
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This post is deleted!
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cheers Ryan
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@nick-terracciano Great to see another member creating a blog for their accountability too.
Sounds like you've spotted the hole in the bottle and are fixing it with this blog section, love it. I'll be reading along!
