The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Anyone know where shows swiss games?
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anyone pay for a decent in-play stats site? I use another trading site aswell which isnt cheap but now i only really use it for the live stats, so wondering if theres a decent alternative out there? It really helps and really works as it allows me to see a lot of games at once, which are looking lively and which need further drilling into
I'm guessing from that Lee that you might be a member of the same site as me. I've tried a couple of in-play scanners to compare and not found anything that I consider better, particularly since the last 5 min filter has been added to the last 10 min as well as the highlighted subs to show attackers being brought on to replace defenders etc. As an annual subscription I considered switching wasn't really saving me anything (although I am a long term member so may have a cheaper sub than many) and I do use the League Table analysis a lot. The one @Alan-Steward mentioned is probably the pick of the others but as I say only offered me a very small saving annually.
Yes, probably the same site! I really only use it for the live stats but it is great to have. It could be a false economy not to have it, i just wanted to see if there was any cheaper alternatives that were as good
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anyone pay for a decent in-play stats site? I use another trading site aswell which isnt cheap but now i only really use it for the live stats, so wondering if theres a decent alternative out there? It really helps and really works as it allows me to see a lot of games at once, which are looking lively and which need further drilling into
Do you mean an in-play scanner Lee... To give in-play data as in the attached jpeg.
This is what I use "Trader Edge" it has good visual graphics to highlight cold or hot games, whilst this doesn't guarantee a goal coming (if red) or not (if blue) it is a good indication of where the games is heading... Obviously dangerous attacks, corners, shots on target and corners are the main indicators it is what drives the colours... Personally I have my set in-play data which I like to see met before entering a trade.
By the way Bangkok game ended 2-1 at HT... Not that I was interested in trading that league lol
Yes thats the sort of thing im looking at. I dont mind paying for one, i just want to be able to see at a glance which games are lively and i like to be able to see numerous games simultaneously. If i can spot 'hot' games then i can delve further into them. Ill check this one out and see how it compares
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@aaron-collins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi peeps.
Just thought I’d share something I’ve found. Using Gary’s SHG filter, I've found that the 0-0 odds filter removes a lot of potential trades simply because the games may not have a CS market.
So I’ve removed this and instead added a filter to only show matches with over £1000 traded on the match odds market to ensure some volume in the event.
Now it’s very early days (26 selections) but the filter is still around 80% successful.
I have only been using the filter to throw out selections for me to judge by Inplay stats at HT/ early 2H and I’ve been strict with my selections to actually trade but so far so good on that front.I know it’s very early days and I’ll post the strike rate again when it reaches 100+ selections, but thought it worth mentioning if other people want to look at it too.
Update on this, the filter has dished out 200+ games now. The headlines are that it is around 76% successful. Different leagues have different success rates and the English leagues let it down.
I will share the spreadsheet for you to look over. I am learning data tracking as i go so i'm sorry if its a little amateur.Also thanks to the person who shared their filter details to show extra info to track, I think it might have been @Alan Steward? Thanks anyway.
So to be clear, only the first 4 Criteria actually filter the results, with an extra filter of Over £1000 matched on the match odds market, to try and ensure liquidity. The rest are just to pull data to try and scrutinise the results further.
https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0lBsj1EKUG_PMi7qpMSq-p0OA#SHG
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Soccer Scanner is another good one but found it jumped around a lot with new games kicking off as it included so many leagues so switched to Trader Edge. As @bottlabroon says the GP scanner takes some beating but the Stats Software here far outweighs the benefit of their scanner with so many other options available
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anyone pay for a decent in-play stats site? I use another trading site aswell which isnt cheap but now i only really use it for the live stats, so wondering if theres a decent alternative out there? It really helps and really works as it allows me to see a lot of games at once, which are looking lively and which need further drilling into
I'm guessing from that Lee that you might be a member of the same site as me. I've tried a couple of in-play scanners to compare and not found anything that I consider better, particularly since the last 5 min filter has been added to the last 10 min as well as the highlighted subs to show attackers being brought on to replace defenders etc. As an annual subscription I considered switching wasn't really saving me anything (although I am a long term member so may have a cheaper sub than many) and I do use the League Table analysis a lot. The one @Alan-Steward mentioned is probably the pick of the others but as I say only offered me a very small saving annually.
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@lee-woodman yeah that's cool, was my earlier post what you were looking for re IPS?
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@alan-steward I’ll send you a bit more info later, just out on the road this afternoon
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@finn-kristensen Thanks mate and yes I like to trade straight from the filter on the bot so 77% post 60mins is not too shabby and should be green... Can always look at the leagues I guess.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward I found that the decent figures for indicating a SH goal are some of the following:
Home scored by FT %
Away scored by FT %
Overall average goals scored
Home O1.5 SH
Away O1.5 SHI’ve 2 filters running at over 80% post 60’ and those seem to make as much a difference as anything
Lol, was going to ask what you considered to be the main drivers in your SHG filter.
I have heard it's good and been told previously that it converts somewhere around 80% but was looking to create one myself... The one I'm working on and with tweaking from 385 games its showing 80% from back testing.
The main drivers in mine are;
Leagues (main leagues without lesser 2nd tier)
Overall o0.5 H2 goals per game =>85%
Avg H2 goals scored per game =>1.85 -
Todays FHG Picks
Serbia Super Liga - 16/12/2020 - 13:00 - Rad Beograd v Sp. Subotica
Germany 2. Bundesliga - 16/12/2020 - 17:30 - Holstein Kiel v Nurnberg
France Ligue 1 - 16/12/2020 - 20:00 - Monaco v LensBest of luck if you follow
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers Hi mate, got all that criteria within my filter bar the BTTS... Surprised I never added that and even set it to zero as it can be a good indicator for goals I use 60% in other goal filters
Am just going through mine now and confident I can hit 80% straight from filter give or take 5%... There will always be a working tolerance and will be content if it averages 78/80%
Hi Alan
I tracked Gary's SHG filter for a while and recorded 230 results from it. Without changing anything on the filter, it delivered 87% SHG (from HT) and from 61 min. on, goals were scored in 77% of the matches. You could probably tweak it a bit (say, by excluding certain leagues) or use IP stats, key players, etc., in order to improve these numbers.
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@ryan-carruthers Great forum some really great tips from people think my heads about to explode!
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@alan-steward I found that the decent figures for indicating a SH goal are some of the following:
Home scored by FT %
Away scored by FT %
Overall average goals scored
Home O1.5 SH
Away O1.5 SHI’ve 2 filters running at over 80% post 60’ and those seem to make as much a difference as anything
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@ryan-carruthers Hi mate, got all that criteria within my filter bar the BTTS... Surprised I never added that and even set it to zero as it can be a good indicator for goals I use 60% in other goal filters
Am just going through mine now and confident I can hit 80% straight from filter give or take 5%... There will always be a working tolerance and will be content if it averages 78/80%
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@alan-steward
That's the filter, I did have from years ago. Haven't tracked those things recently as its been working for a long time now. I used to post these on the Betgreen website which was like 10 years ago now - still works!
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@ryan-carruthers Yeah sorry should have asked the strike rate at 60mins plus?
Am working on one at the mo which is only converting 72% entire SH... Way too many selections (last night 23) and am struggling to change the data to improve strike rate.
Would happily take a look at yours and try to tweak it... Do you have any recorded data such as goal times etc?
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@alan-steward It's usually in the 80s, happy to share my filter see what you can do and tweak with it?
It's pretty profitable at most score lines as well - I've had a lot of games you think would have no more goals at HT 3-1 end 3-4 etc....
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@ryan-carruthers Quite an impressive result with your SHG game picks yesterday 5 from 6... What's your general strike rate?
