The road to full time
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@darri ok cheers mate i took your advice from last week im 5 days in profit but im going off inplay stats alone at the mo i might incorporate both if i can
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@liam-willis i recently updated my flat to be more of a home office, so iv got 2 monitors so yeah i can watch a few games at a time. I always watch whatever game i plan to enter if its not on a stream or on tv then its not a game ill trade. I know all the tv subscriptions cost a lot but since this is my job its a good excuse to have them
i dont trust inplay stats enough, but if i wasnt doing this full time and had a smaller bank id probably be using only inplay for multiple games. -
@darri hello mate do you watch more than one game at a time or when there is multiple games trade on inplay stats alone
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im going to be out tomorrow so wont be able to track the 1.5 so if your not seeing any selections from me but you have thats why. not quite sure whats happening in aberdeen right now, we have just been moved to a new higher tier, so while the new changes dont happen till friday alot of places have already said they might shut asap.
if anyone could track the 1.5 would be a help if not then its fine. There are three games on it tomorrow:
schalke
genoa
luzernJust let me know the odds at ht for 2 more goals.
Managed to get a good few trades in tonight for late goals, carrying on the good form for december. 2020 could be a huge leap in my personal trading and im happy iv done it the way i have on here, huge progress from that very first post on this blog.
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@darri sorry mate I missed this reply. Yeah that’s my plan back the FHG on 20 (min 1.8) and also back the O 2.5 with a view to trading out at some point or like you said creating a FB by removing the red. I’m hoping this filter will work nicely alongside my H2 filter
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@matt-wood Thanks bud, nice bonus before xmas
i think alot more of the pros should show their actual trades more as i think its far more helpful to have live examples of what types of games fit their strategy. My posts if you look over follow a similar outlook for each game. Its lively, key players are playing and odds are good. The posts iv done on this blog are to make sure that i have a checklist for each game and for each game to become a trade they must go through the same checklist. That for me is how i build consistency, in theory if i approach each game on its merits but with the same questions being asked it should long term give consistent results. Im glad its having an effect on yourself mate and i look forward to seeing how you go about trading into next year. The calmness after losing trades for me didnt stop until i had consistent results for a few months. Its just on of those things that you can only overcome when you have full confidence on your trading that eventually itll start to progress again. Iv had some bad runs but you can see from my sheets i just keep doing what im doing because i believe in my trading, and those greens will eventually overtake and surpass those reds over a long term view.Also not related to yourself but for everyone: you dont need to always be making gains everyday or every trading session.
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Great couple of weeks Darri, congrats
I think 'watching' you on here and on the main footy thread this last couple of weeks, plus the specific replies you have given me, has really helped to kick on my learning. I feel much calmer, although still an element of panic with losing trades, and much more in control of my trading. Hopefully this means the consistent profits will start to follow
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@ben-dobie awesome to hear that mate! If you have something that shows good results for FH and SH then you may want to think of trading the ov 2.5 similar to @bottlabroon.
Iv not traded it before but id imagine odds on ov 2.5 at around 20-25 is about 2.2/2.5? Goal goes in say before HT nice profit or remove red and let it run with the use of your initial filter purpose. If no goal exit at HT. Just ideas obviously, but id try to build into that way of trading FHGs rather than that actual market going forward. Keep us posted tho mate
I was going to do that as the project filter but because its a strategy that requires inplay trading was going to be too much work and wanted to keep it simple for the blog. Definitely something ill be looking into start of next year now that iv stripped back everything apart from late goals and cricket.
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I’ve got an overs filter that’s performing better on FHG 20/25+ than on the overs , scared to get excited but the S/R is scary ... early days though and will probably suffer the same variance as they all do for FHG....obviously if performing well after 200 games I’ll share
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END of WEEK 2:
This is turning out to be a cracking month, and we arent even in the busy period yet, that being said i will become quite cautious with the football during the busy spell.
Football:
We have managed to go on some runs this week. Really scaling the profits. The whole return to focus on just late goals proving once again to be the major factor. I wish people would understand that side of it, the better you get by focussing on one part of the markets the better your profits. It sounds counter intuitive but i hope a lightbulb moment may click when reading one of these posts for someone.
Im still toying with how im going to do posts during the week, in terms of a layout, im tempted to on weekdays to not put up a list but go thru games that i traded either won or loss and show why i entered etc, even if its just a quick reason.
If we can even just break even for the rest of month id be really happy with this return. +30 points in 2 weeks worth of trades. Small amount but quality tradesCricket:
Its back! Great start to the bbl and with a outright trade already in a risk free position its looking good so far. Im trying to measure each game without thinking to heavily on individual players. More thinking how many wickets in hand/run needed. The par score method is working wonders in terms of where teams should be at set overs. Im glad that has transitioned well from ipl to this too.
Internationals are coming in thick and fast and with a aus vs india test series hopefully i bag a few good trades to build confidence on the formats. Traded the NZ vs WI test well first time. This one might not be as easy as there isnt as big a gulf in class.Conclusion:
Unreal start to december, make sure to not pressure yourself this month to make money, i know its always tempting to eek out a few extra trades or stakes but trust me its not worth it. Still 2 weeks to go and i have to make sure i dont dig into these profits and maintain the consistency iv shown over last 3 months. Ideally like to press on and make this a huge month
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@james-woodroffe yep stick to what working right now but have in mind long term too bud
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@darri and @bottlabroon interesting feedback re FHG’s. Definitely taken on board. I often find I’m a lot better when I’m watching to be fair. (Laid U0.5 at 1.53 at Southampton today but didn’t post due to time) and perhaps that’s a better way to go forward or perhaps even to use them for O2.5’s later but again no rush as I have what I’m focused on for time being.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
This could be countered by manipulating another market that reacts to first half goal but that actual market itself is losing liquidity.Yep, poor liquidity was the main reason that I started to try and use FH goals to create a position in the over 2.5 market which generally has much stronger liquidity.
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@james-woodroffe iv sacked them off completely, they can be a good bank builder when you have less than 1k but once your stakes are more in line with say £100-£200 its not worth it. Lets take today for example sociedad less than 1k pre kickoff matched, in germany in the nurnberg game less than 6k at that at 30 mins and in denmark in the horsens game less than 1k. The market just isnt feasible long term. For me you can learn to trade them now but really if your planning for long term they are rapidly going out of fashion and only the strong leagues on tv have enough liquidity. All about the long game, think betfair are also capping some of the lesser games with scrapping the markets. This could be countered by manipulating another market that reacts to first half goal but that actual market itself is losing liquidity.
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@martin-walker FHG’s are an interesting one and I’m impartial to them myself. I was thinking of a set and forget in 2021 to concentrate on other things but agree it’s smart to put them to the side whilst you nail late Goals.
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@matt-wood dropped it to just focus on late goals as i feel that has more long term value to me. It was profitable so the option is there to pick it back up in the future
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@darri I'm still learning, thanks ... having a few lightbulb moments but pretty much just breaking even. The numbers fascinate me, I just get distracted and place a stupid trade now and again so I need to get some discipline, stop doing that and remind myself it's a long game.
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@martin-walker Good that you were aware very quickly so you can cut those lax days out.
Do you still focus on FHG a lot?
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@darri you got it correct. 100% it was over confidence. Id smashed it most days this month and little by little i let the practices slip. Thanks for the reply
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@rachel-murray how are you getting on with trading?
