Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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The game in Qatar was one I was looking at for a potential H2 goal but 0-2 score in the first at present rules it out for me already.
Only Bolivia left although I can see that's now a midnight game so I won't be up for 2nd half anyway.
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@konstantinos-koulamas said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer
at BOGOF strategy when you lay u3.5 g at kickoff and u1.5 g at HT what is your exit points respectively? right after first goal scored in both cases? or something else?This is set and forget. No specific exit points although as I touched on yesterday there may be certain HT scores to cut your losses on the initial trade and the leave the over 2.5 SHG alone.
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@richard-latimer
at BOGOF strategy when you lay u3.5 g at kickoff and u1.5 g at HT what is your exit points respectively? right after first goal scored in both cases? or something else? -
It's looking like Bolivia is back on the menu as all sides have played a few games since their return. Just as well, as everything else pretty scarce midweek:
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Thought I'd do some analysing of the HT score lines at present and what it means to the outcome of various entries on the BOGOF selections.
0-0 is still good. A decent chance of the over 3.5 still and exceptionally good chance of over 1.5 SHG. Still a decent chance of the over 2.5 SHG as well.
This is where it gets interesting. At 1-0/0-1 you might start to think about redding out and not taking the H2 plays. At 1-0/0-1 from 13 selections so far only 1 has produced another 3 goals. A further 2 goals is ok at 0-1 but not for the odds on offer. Hopefully this will improve.
At 1-0 a further 2 goals is still the likely outcome so makes this play a good one presently.
A 1-1 score line SO FAR, is almost nailed on to see a further 2 goals.
After that over 3.5 becomes very high percentage or of course it has already won. For over 1.5 SHG there aren't isn't a great sample yet but early indications are good but not as good as the 0-0/1-1 score line.
Over 2.5 will obviously follow a similar sort of pattern but at lower % probabilities and lower lay odds.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
No BOGOF's tomorrow and here's the potential LTD plays (JO.F.F.S.):
Must be 0-0/1-1/0-1 @ HT with no prev goals scored unless leveler to 0-1. This must come 55mins or earlier.
Ave bookie odds for 1 SHG must be 1.12 or higher as per oddsportal.com.
No red cards unless already in the trade.
Getting odds of close to evens or under on these so even if strike rates drops massively from where it is now it should still be profitable.
No qualifiers in todays games
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No BOGOF's tomorrow and here's the potential LTD plays (JO.F.F.S.):
Must be 0-0/1-1/0-1 @ HT with no prev goals scored unless leveler to 0-1. This must come 55mins or earlier.
Ave bookie odds for 1 SHG must be 1.12 or higher as per oddsportal.com.
No red cards unless already in the trade.
Getting odds of close to evens or under on these so even if strike rates drops massively from where it is now it should still be profitable.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Disappointing day today although not that red due to losing odds.
Beerschot couldn't even manage 1 SHG let alone 2 or 3 and it finished 0-1 so that was a loser on 3 entries.
Celtic conceded and managed to get one back so loss on the game was small, especially as odds taken at kickoff were already small to lay.
Bodo, got to love them. Winning 3-0 @ HT. A 4th just before 60 and when things were lookign dicey for the other entry points they popped up with another. Then They let one in and just for good measure they let another just before it finished.
Molde, odds very short so glad these didn't all lose. A late goal to the opposition sealed the 2-1 win and a split for small red.I'm back over 100 selections now but next lot of numbers aren't as conclusive so leaving be for now.
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The black box denotes a game where neither has anything to play for.
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Potential LTD today:
Den Bosch was on there but not liking 2-2 scoreline for now.
I''ll enter LTD on 69mins providing 0-0/1-1/0-1 @ HT and no goals/1 goals scored 55mins or less.
Also want ave H2 goal odds to be 1.12+ across the board which can checked on oddsportal.com
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
A sizeable list but important to note it's unlikely many will qualify as there are quite strict restrictions in place now to get to qualifier stage:
Revised list as hadn't been through looking to exclude promoted home teams and relegated away teams. Reason for this is I want home teams with form for their average goal tallys so need them playing against similar or better opposition to amass the tallys they have.
Opposite is true of the away team. As I want a dominant home performance living up to their average goal tally I want an away team used to playing against lesser or similar teams rather than one where they've come down a league and will probably bounce straight back up.
In terms of my LTD I've had 6 trades and not one breached 2.06 when entering on 69mins.
5 were wins and 1 was a loss. The loss was 0-1 @ HT and equaliser came on 59mins. The hisory showed me another goal was likely in this case but I think I may reduce it to if the leveller comes after 55 mins it's a leave. Plenty of opportunities without pushing it and I noticed that where another goal came after the equaliser that first goal was scored before 55.In any case it was good profit and because these are so low in price I'm not stressing over the equaliser at all.
The games in question were:
Salernitana
Menemen Belediyespor (loser @ 1.75)
Vasteras
Slask
Montpellier
Rangers (Chile B)Sporting Luqueno still technically in play @ 0-0 HT but I may not bother. Plenty tomorrow.
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Here's tomorrows:
Only 1 Belgian Jupiler selection so far but it was a goodun
Got a first selection in Scotland. Will Celtic be able to win convincingl or at least ship enough themselves?!
Bodo have already won the league. Will they continue to run up the score? I see no reason to think otherwise. They'd won last week as well and it didn't stop them scoring 2 late ones to make it 5-1.
Adana won the last time they were selected for this 4-1 after it being 0-0 @ HT.
Finally Molde.Here's to another good solid day.
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Finally for now though, without the EPL, this is the current state of play:
Over 3.5, 34/48, 71%, ave bookie odds 1.97
Over 1.5 SHG 37/48, 77%, ave bookie odds 1.59
Over 2.5 SHG 14/30, 47%, ave bookie odds 2.69 -
And so, not nearly enough data to show anything conclusive but here it anyway in case anyone would like to follow and wants a breakdown of leagues:
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But I'm back over 100 selections again and it's time to remove some low hanging fruit.
Home offensive numbers of 1.35-1.399999 performing better than the numbers below it I've already removed but still decidedly lagging behind the higher numbers. Ave odds for 2 SHG is around 1.75 bookie price and s/r is only 55% They wouldn't lose much if anything but I don't see them adding much to the party longterm.
I'm not removing things based on trades I've done and regretted. These were always on borrowed time and the only thing I'm posting is the best of what I see and what has worked up to now.
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First, a quick tally of the day on these BOGOF's (anyone guess what it stands for haha??):
4 wins, 3 losses on the over 3.5. More than good enough as odds average out around evens. That said, as I've pointed out, it's very clear the EPL is currently underperforming and I'll move them out of the firing line for now. Would be 4 wins, 2 losses. An excellent return.
Over 1.5 SHG @ HT 5 wins, 2 losses. Odds higher but again Man City and the EPL have been useless so far on these. Take them out of the firing line as I will be doing and that would be 5 wins, 1 loss. An excellent return there too.
Over 2.5 SHG @ HT. Started with a bang and a late goal in Singapore very much unexpected at that late stage (to be honest looking at goal times they often are - This thing is littered with clusters of seriously late goals). Anyway then came Bayern, Ajax and Liefering who alway failed on this particular entry of the trade. 1 win, 3 losses for I'd imagine around 0.75-1pt loss.
I now make that 15 wins and 16 losses from what amounts to around odds of 1.6 average.
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Since that last post Bayern did most of the business and Olympiakos got the full win for both entries placed.
Ajax was a loss just over 1pt and Liefering about to fall down big time.
Thank goodness for Porto then who are already 2-2. Another 2 SHG and it will be a good day for these despite Man City who probably just gave me a decent enough excuse to exclude the PL from these for the time being.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Man City look to be undoing a lot of the good work from this morning. Still small green if/when this loses.
On to Bayern.
Interesting. You'd think Man City would be really good for this but 2nd selection and both lost. Also one for Liverpool that lost.
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Man City look to be undoing a lot of the good work from this morning. Still small green if/when this loses.
On to Bayern.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Under 3.5 lay in already in first game.
Late winners for both 2nd half entries. That's the sweep on first game.
