The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri the next addition to my set up in my office is a TV, I struggle to concentrate on games downstairs as I've got the little fella wanting me to be Captain America whilst he's the Hulk which is fine ha ha ... but seriously need to be able to watch more games with full concentration to improve my s/r
But Ben, surely if you are in fact, Captain America, you could easily fight the hulk, watch a bit of tv and complete a trade in one evening at the same time. Probably without breaking a sweat
@Matt-Wood ha ha no way mate, Hulk is king in our house
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Will be keeping an eye on this Bursaspor game in Turkey for 2nd half goals. Bursaspor have a good home record and 0-1 down so should be going for it.
0-2 just as I was posting, didn't get in.
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Will be keeping an eye on this Bursaspor game in Turkey for 2nd half goals. Bursaspor have a good home record and 0-1 down so should be going for it.
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@allan-poulsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri
Waaauuuuwwww Darri
Ty for your reply;)
I only paper trade my on strats for now that's why im interesting in how low my profit magic on a Strat should be.
If my own strat has a 2,5 % Roi after 300 matches is that good-bad-okay?
The ROI or yield you get will depend to an extent on the odds and strike rate you get. Higher your liability the greater your strike needs to be and as such your yield will reflect this. You lay low liabilities and your strike rate decreases but your yield could potentially go up. I know for me personally I'm looking for 10%+. Many pro gamblers will be more than happy with 5% over the the long-term. To be honest if you are in long-term profit on Betfair you're doing better than 95% of the population regardless.
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Fantastic conversation on here today people, proving again how valuable the BTC is as a place to learn.
Chuck my 2ps worth in here, coming from the viewpoint of a newbie.
Been here about 6mnths now and have given myself £100 and 12 mnths to learn. Fully expected to blow that £100 in the 12 mnths. Currently sitting at £114. So pretty much break even after 6 mnths. I am very happy with that. Have learnt loooooaaads in that time, thanks to everyone on here largely.
Key take aways I have so far:
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Start slowly - I tried to do way way too much when I started out, initially had plenty of success then a downturn hit and I had no real idea why as I was trying out too many things at once. So small stakes or paper trading and stick with one strat at first.
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Dont blindly copy people, even if they are successful. I have followed the pro traders on here, the likes of Ryan, Martin, Keith, Darri, Alan and others. I have watched what they do when they post and then followed the game they posted about to try and figure out WHY they did what they did. Usually I cannot and have to ask them a load of stupid questions
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Relax! big one for me this. If you miss a trade, so what! Forget it and move on. If a trade ends red, dont panic or get annoyed, figure out why.
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Re the stats software; mess about with it. Make a filter and track the results. No aim to do anything but it gets you used to how the software works and gets you into a habit of looking at games, looking at results and tracking things on a spreadsheet to be looked at later. This all will help, at least it has for me, when you start to track a filter for real.
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Listen to everyone when they offer advice. If you like it, understand it and use it, if it doesnt fit your mentality then file it away for later as it may be useful for something else.
All obvious stuff really and the pro guys will tell you all this and explain it better than me. Just take the attitude of this being a marathon not a sprint.
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@darri
Waaauuuuwwww Darri
Ty for your reply;)
I only paper trade my on strats for now that's why im interesting in how low my profit magic on a Strat should be.
If my own strat has a 2,5 % Roi after 300 matches is that good-bad-okay?
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri the next addition to my set up in my office is a TV, I struggle to concentrate on games downstairs as I've got the little fella wanting me to be Captain America whilst he's the Hulk which is fine ha ha ... but seriously need to be able to watch more games with full concentration to improve my s/r
But Ben, surely if you are in fact, Captain America, you could easily fight the hulk, watch a bit of tv and complete a trade in one evening at the same time. Probably without breaking a sweat
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@alan-steward
Hi Alan
Ty for you reply it helps a lot.
Regard to my own strats they are only "played" for Fake money in a spreadshet so i can see if it works and makes profit.
How Big/low profit would you accept for a Strat 1-2-5-10%
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
It does sound like whether you use the filters to the full extent or just as a shortlist they are a useful tool for all football traders?
Trading can be as easy or as complicated as you make it.... the same goes with the filters, my split stake filter is very simple and very effective - it's a good place for anybody to start.
Then as you learn more and your confidence grows you can use the filters to give you a shortlist of solid games to trade
exactly that, i would say that the stats software is one of the main reasons for me learning to trade
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@alan-steward where did i say it wasnt profitable? I said it was... just from my experience its not as profitable. We are all just saying what helped us nobody is knocking anyone. We can only comment on our own experiences. Iv posted all my filters for people to use im not quite sure where your going with this. And i am profitable
i do an daily update to show lad -
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
It does sound like whether you use the filters to the full extent or just as a shortlist they are a useful tool for all football traders?
Trading can be as easy or as complicated as you make it.... the same goes with the filters, my split stake filter is very simple and very effective - it's a good place for anybody to start.
Then as you learn more and your confidence grows you can use the filters to give you a shortlist of solid games to trade
Especially when starting off. I suppose when I’m trading, I’m trying to build up a picture of a potential trade. The BTC stats play an important role.
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@allan-poulsen something id advise anyone is to paper trade at first. You need to understand the markets and how they react. For me i trade late goals so i like to know what price is on offer at certain stages of an open game. From there i can then value a price late on. If you just through money at things untested it a recipe for disaster trust me blewn a few banks myself.
Your not the only one mate there are many new traders on here who are trying to learn also. They just dont typically become vocal about it so you end up only seeing those that are profitable post green screens and profits. Kind of like social media only seeing the good posts.
I take it football is your go to sport? What strategy are you most interested in from what you see online?
Keep your strategy simple to start with and then add to it once you have enough sample of paper traded games. So for example if trading 2nd half goals find out your average goal time if its above 60 mins then look to maybe enter later to maximise etc.
Dont worry about what others are doing there are plenty on here who have been at this for years and still looking to trade profitably. The best traders keep it simple and my best advise is to do the same. Track your trades for the next month so we can then have a look and see what could maybe be improved to help you mate.
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@darri Just because you're not profitable trading straight from filters doesn't mean to say others aren't, it works for me and my data will back it up so stop knocking it... You're doing my head in
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It does sound like whether you use the filters to the full extent or just as a shortlist they are a useful tool for all football traders?
Trading can be as easy or as complicated as you make it.... the same goes with the filters, my split stake filter is very simple and very effective - it's a good place for anybody to start.
Then as you learn more and your confidence grows you can use the filters to give you a shortlist of solid games to trade
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@darri the next addition to my set up in my office is a TV, I struggle to concentrate on games downstairs as I've got the little fella wanting me to be Captain America whilst he's the Hulk which is fine ha ha ... but seriously need to be able to watch more games with full concentration to improve my s/r
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So reading over todays posts from the convo today key points for people to look at who might like the way some traders trade:
Use the filters as a guide dont over rely (could still make profit but less margin)
Trade games/leagues you have knowledge about (for me that can be mitigated with key player research)
Keep it simple
WATCH the match or use inplay stats if you cant watch a game without entering
Try to match up an open game with a good price. Because Price is King.
Trade each game on its own merits, dont carpet a game just because its in holland etc.Really interesting to read how others trade, especially the good ones like keith. As a trader for a few years now you start to pick up on what more important and in play and watching a game and understanding the flow of it is far more profitable than just filters and historical data on its own. Its certainly taken me to that next level in trading for a living.
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@allan-poulsen Hi Allan, you say you're new to trading but that you're also creating your own strats?
If I can give you some advice right now it would be... "Don't try to reinvent the wheel"
Stick to what works for now (Ryans Split Stake) and get used to trading, watch how market prices react in different situations... Example... If a game starts with skinny odds chances are they'll stay skinny for the duration and not offer enough value for long term profits/sustainability.
You may have to watch a few games in before you get matched on Ryans Split Stake (hence why I trade it on my bot) but you'll get consistent results
Hope this helps
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I do have filters but they are merely a way of adding games to my watchlist before deciding whether to trade. I find it difficult to keep track of a lot of matches, particularly on a busy Saturday so loading those matches on my in-play list just makes it easier to keep track of those I'm most interested in.
I will trade outside of my watchlist if a game looks really open or a game gets it's first goal in the last 30 mins and it's likely to open up after the first goal.
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Hello Everyone;)
I have been her for around 6-8 month and are pretty new into trading and i has been op and down and now its DOWN big time after alle the soccer are starting at the new season so i have a few question
Am i the only one who can't make it work in soccer right now?
What are you doing to make up for it trade something diffrent or?
i have made a few selfmade strategy but im wondering if they have enough value. what profit % do i looking for in a strategy 2-5-10 % or more?
i hope some of you will take your time to reply
Big love & good luck
Allan -
Afternoon all... I trade all my filters on the bot but then they return profit every month... Am taking a bit of time out at the mo with my bot as I'm working on SHG a bit and trying to get that working... Unfortunately I can't run split stake on Bet Angel and then trade SHG at the same time as the bot will keep equalising (red or green) it if it's the same game
...I might start testing with the SHG on Smarkets.
Anyway back to what works with in-play trading I use "Trader Edge" for in-play stats... Works well for me, when the stats look right and both teams look capable of scoring I'll lay the unders around the 60min mark or later... Will try to post a screen shot over the weekend to show an ideal game that qualifies for me.
My in-play trading is just a casual affair in the evening whilst my better half is watching dross on the TV (Stictly comes to mind lol)
