The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Ryan]

@keith-anderson Mine are usually because they've lost me money and despite me going back to them they keep losing me money lol

[Akiva Anderson]

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

League restrictions

Argentina Liga Profesional
Australia A-League
Austria Tipico Bundesliga
Belgium Jupiler League
Brazil Serie A
Brazil Serie B
Chile Primera Division
China Super League
Czech Republic 1. Liga
Denmark Superliga
England Premier League
England Championship
England League One
England League Two
England National League
France Ligue 1
France Ligue 2
Germany Bundesliga
Germany 2. Bundesliga
Iceland Pepsideild
Ireland Premier Division
Israel Ligat Ha'al
Israel Leumit League
Italy Serie A
Italy Serie B
Japan J1 League
Mexico Liga Mx
Netherlands Eredivisie
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership
Norway Eliteserien
Poland Ekstraklasa
Portugal Primeira Liga
Scotland Premiership
South Korea K League 1
Spain Laliga
Spain Laliga2
Sweden Allsvenskan
Sweden Superetten
Switzerland Super League
Ukraine Premier League
Uruguay Primera Division
USA Mls

Here are my league restrictions. I love hearing why people omit certain leagues.

[Finn Kristensen]

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So after 8 from 9 SHG wins over the weekend Gary's SHG performed exactly where I asked it to... Variance has a nasty habit of kicking in when you least expect it but at least the odds in the Leverkusen game were palatable for a loss... Or put another way... Betfair got it right!

Todays picks... Just the one... Best of luck if you follow

Choice of trade

Option A
Lay under plus 2 goals at HT and trade as you see the game unfold ie just let it run or green up or remove red after 1st goal (with only circa 57% o1.5 shg's would recommend greening up)

Option B
LCU on 59mins Betfair time

Out of curiosity, why do you exclude the Brondby match?

[Ryan]

@alan-steward Pretty much the same leagues as me that!

[A Former User]

@alan-steward ok and thanks

[A Former User]

@chris-osborne The thing with this filter is that it's odds based which means a selection can meet requirements at one point but maybe not before KO... But at the end of the day you can't fault it's performance.

I request a little bit more data in case I want to further analyse but league performance seems to do the trick well enough. Will edit this post and enter my additional requests (I have unknowingly at the time requested the same information that was on the original but left in as it shouldn't affect selection criteria and it leaves the over goals alongside each other.

With regards to my selection it's whatever league is currently converting at minimum 80%. Leagues stay in if it's only 1 win away from hitting 80%

League restrictions

Argentina Liga Profesional
Australia A-League
Austria Tipico Bundesliga
Austria 2. Liga
Belgium Jupiler League
Brazil Serie A
Brazil Serie B
Bulgaria Parva Liga
Chile Primera Division
China Super League
Croatia 1. Hnl
Czech Republic 1. Liga
Denmark Superliga
Denmark 1st Division
Egypt Premier League
England Premier League
England Championship
England League One
Estonia Meistrililiga
Finland Veikkausliiga
Finland Ykkonen
France Ligue 1
France Ligue 2
Germany Bundesliga
Germany 2. Bundesliga
Germany 3. Liga
Greece Super League
Hungary Otp Bank Liga
Iceland Pepsideild
Iceland Inkasso-deildin
Ireland Premier Division
Israel Ligat Ha'al
Israel Leumit League
Italy Serie A
Italy Serie B
Japan J1 League
Japan J2 League
Mexico Liga Mx
Netherlands Eredivisie
Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership
Norway Eliteserien
Norway Obos-Ligaen
Paraguay Primera Division
Peru Liga 1
Poland Ekstraklasa
Portugal Primeira Liga
Portugal Liga Portugal 2
Russia Premier League
Scotland Premiership
Serbia Super Liga
Slovakia Prva Liga
Slovenia Prva Liga
South Korea K League 1
South Korea K League 2
Spain Laliga
Spain Laliga2
Sweden Allsvenskan
Sweden Superetten
Switzerland Super League
Switzerland Challenge League
Turkey Super Lig
Ukraine Premier League
Uruguay Primera Division
USA Mls

[A Former User]

@alan-steward Thanks for posting these Alan

One question, have you tweaked the filter from the one in Profitible Members area. Only reason I ask is that filter isn’t showing the Brondby game and I also noticed a couple of differences over the weekend?

[A Former User]

So after 8 from 9 SHG wins over the weekend Gary's SHG performed exactly where I asked it to... Variance has a nasty habit of kicking in when you least expect it but at least the odds in the Leverkusen game were palatable for a loss... Or put another way... Betfair got it right!

Todays picks... Just the one... Best of luck if you follow

Choice of trade

Option A
Lay under plus 2 goals at HT and trade as you see the game unfold ie just let it run or green up or remove red after 1st goal (with only circa 57% o1.5 shg's would recommend greening up)

Option B
LCU on 59mins Betfair time

[Ryan]

LTD 0-0 / 1-1 LCS if 0-1 / 1-0

A lot of these have a second half goal no matter the score, some at the weekend 3-1 at HT you'd think that be it wouldn't you? NOPE! 3-4 FT.

A lot of these selections come from my goal list filter which was a bit of a hit back in the day, I'll look to revive it!

Country League Date Home Away
Netherlands Eerste Divisie 30/11/2020 15:30:00 Jong PSV Cambuur
Poland Ekstraklasa 30/11/2020 17:00:00 Lechia Gdansk Lech Poznan
Sweden Allsvenskan 30/11/2020 18:00:00 Hammarby Norrkoping
Belgium Jupiler League 30/11/2020 19:45:00 Antwerp Leuven
Brazil Serie A 30/11/2020 23:00:00 Fluminense Bragantino

[A Former User]

A couple of games for today

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Quite a few games today. Need to be quite selective in-play:

Yesterday worked really well on these and how i traded them. I only ended up trading 5 of the games (4 wins and 1 loss) but felt completely in control of my trades. Everything i did was done from my phone using the app and flashscores whilst on the go.

Lommel - 1-0 at HT, 2-0 at time of entry. Loads of action despite being 2-0 and i felt there was more goals to come. I gave it 10 minutes after the 2nd goal came on 56' and decided that it looked like another was coming so i LCS at 2.9 and the 3rd goal came on 71'. Trade won. +1pt
Mechelen - Red card before time of entry, no trade
Gent - Gent were losing 0-2 at home. The prices were high all through the SH and Gent werent giving it enough to warrant getting involved. It went 0-3 later on but id have been annoyed if that one lost after getting involved so cant regret leaving it alone. No trade
Hobro - 1-3 at HT. Loads going on in the SH but still no SH goals had come. I LCS at 3.0 and a goal came on 72', followed by a couple more. Trade won. +1pt
Lens - 1-1 at HT. 1-2 at entry. As with the Lommel game, a goal came early in the SH so i gave it a bit of time afterwards before getting involved. Not as much action as the other games but at 1-2 the game wasnt settled so i LCS at 2.7. This is probably a game that couldve been left on another day. The score went 1-3 on 90+2. Trade won. +1pt
St Etienne - 1-0 at HT, 1-1 at time of entry. The away team were 2nd and losing at HT. After equalising on 65' it looked as though the momentum had gone their way and they were putting a lot of pressure on. Prices were good so i LCS on 75' at 1.7. No goal came but they were pressing up until the last minute. Would trade again. Trade lost. -0.7pt
Eindhoven - 1-1 at HT, 2-1 at entry. Loads of dutch games are too highly priced but this one seemed ok. At 2-1 neither team could sit back and there was action. I LCS at 2.1 (some time around 73') and the goal then came on 84 plus a 90th minute winner. Trade won. +1pt
Molde - 2-1 at HT. Molde made it 3-1 on 48. That can either kill the game or make the action pick up and it seemed to be the former based on the next 15' of action. I was right not to get involved

Neither split stake game qualified as both had a goal before 30'

I just thought id list a snapshot of how i traded these games. From 10 games, 5 were traded and maximum risk on one trade was 2pts. In each game i focused purely on the score, what the situation meant for each team, how that translated to action and whether the price justified getting involved. I would do all of these trades again given the chance and i was happy to walk away with +3.3 pts from just 5 trades on a day which i started with over 20 potentials.

[Stuart Capstick]

@john-hurst

Well done, John.

[Akiva Anderson]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LTD / LCS in the Real Sociedad v Villarreal match. Currently 1-1 at HT. Decent game

Terrible second half. Red for me today

[A Former User]

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

lcs braga vs fc farense, currently 0-0 65 mins

Goal 1-0 1pt made scratch for the day despite 2 2pt reds earlier.

[bottlabroon]

@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Napoli I've laid U2.5 at 1.65

1-0 Taken out the red

Nice to finally get one over the line today, all my other stock 2.5 trades got the first goal allowing me to scratch but fell 1 goal short of converting. Ended up about 0.3 pts down on the day after losing a full point at Leverkusen but I’ll take that.

[A Former User]

lcs braga vs fc farense, currently 0-0 65 mins

[Daniel Cooper]

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

lcs:

valerenga vs sarposborg
psv vs sparta

GOALS! 2/2 cracking prices on both there! Cracking end to november

Thanks for these Darri

[Stuart Capstick]

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

lcs:

valerenga vs sarposborg
psv vs sparta

GOALS! 2/2 cracking prices on both there! Cracking end to november

Hell of a comeback from Valarenga.

[A Former User]

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

lcs:

valerenga vs sarposborg
psv vs sparta

GOALS! 2/2 cracking prices on both there! Cracking end to november

[Akiva Anderson]

LTD / LCS in the Real Sociedad v Villarreal match. Currently 1-1 at HT. Decent game