The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Reading todays posts is quite worrying and id be happy to help anyone that needs it. Dont worry about what people think just come and ask we have all been on a learning curve at some stage.
One of the things im seeing as a recurring thing with the people struggling is the use of set entries/systems. I trade each game on its own merits. @bottlabroon iv tried to give advice whenever i can about this but still people dont even paper trade doing it the way i suggest for them. I cannot stress how pre game research ie key players, managers etc affect your data. Iv harped on about it loads PRE-INPLAY-PRICE. If @John-Hurst @Ben-Dobie @Simji if any of you need help get on the private coaching or have a chat with me or other full time traders. Dont be afraid to ask. Those that have reached out before to me know ill go through everything. Also take a look at keith posts over a long period and take a look at the types of games he gets involved with its how i ended up creating my own take. Youll notice games are pretty lively
Iv always said exactly how i trade on my blog and on here, ill try copy an extract from my posts on the blog just click the link below this post and ill do one on the road to full time with exactly my break down. There is too much of an over reliance on filters and not enough focus on each individual game. We all make good filters but you have to learn how to actually trade it well or its pointless, the football essentials sheet at the top of the thread here also covers good advice for those struggling. There are also countless videos/blogs done by the btc guys which can help anyone struggling or needing a refresh.
PRE-INPLAY-PRICE reposted on the blog, for those wanting to see how i trade late goals. Im not saying my way is the only way but if someone is struggling then i want to offer help and show how i learnt to trade. No point people packing it in without at least trying it this way. Also reposted a live example i did earlier in month to make it easier to follow/understand. Iv done loads of blog posts trying to offer help and advice on what helped me so if you have some time go have a read (not all boring i promise
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst
What I've found with late goals is that the sweet spot is when HT score is 0-1. Pretty much every score at 70 mins, apart from 1-2, is profitable for a late goal.
I imagine your filter will throw up something similar; certain HT scores are far more profitable than others.
I think you could look at that in conjunction with what Richard says about high scoring home teams.One caveat and I don't know why but it might be something to do with what we've discussed about teams returning to the mean.
I'm finding the absolute highest averages to be hit and miss. A sweet spot again if you like. For me it's between 1.6 and 2.4 presently. Also taking into account H2 averages and this has improved what I'm doing.
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@john-hurst
What I've found with late goals is that the sweet spot is when HT score is 0-1. Pretty much every score at 70 mins, apart from 1-2, is profitable for a late goal.
I imagine your filter will throw up something similar; certain HT scores are far more profitable than others.
I think you could look at that in conjunction with what Richard says about high scoring home teams. -
@richard-latimer may need to take a look at it and see if i can add to mine in some way. For the time being i will take the advice and look to ltd on drawing games and i may queue others at 2.0 for lcs, if they match then great if not then thats no issue. Appreciate your input mate
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon cheers man @Richard-Latimer aye not sure whats best anymore really
The reason I'm thinking that is Garys Filter. Other than odds the main thing is it concentrates on the home team being able to score goals.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer so if i presumed at 70 it was 2.0 and i backed then, it would be profitable
Or do like Keith. Go earlier but LTD therefore odds lower and you can choose to trade out or not depending on how you see it.
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@bottlabroon cheers man @Richard-Latimer aye not sure whats best anymore really
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer so if i presumed at 70 it was 2.0 and i backed then, it would be profitable
Yeah. If you can tweak it to give 60%+ you should be laughing.
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@john-hurst
On average for games that are likely to have goals in them it will be around 75 minutes for 2.00.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer oh sorry yeah i have 20 losses
So 57%
I've recently looked to concentrate on home scored averages on top of overall averages. Home goals more common and it just seems logical for a good goal filter to include good home teams. I'm working on one at the moment but keeping it quiet until I have more data.
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@richard-latimer so if i presumed at 70 it was 2.0 and i backed then, it would be profitable
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@richard-latimer oh sorry yeah i have 20 losses
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer how do you mean mate?
As in what's your strike rate from when a goal is scored 70mins+
Odds are prob quite decent by that point so won't need much more than 60-65%
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@richard-latimer how do you mean mate?
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Martin-Futter 47/173 have the first H2 goal after 70 mins
What's your strike rate at that point though?
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@Martin-Futter 47/173 have the first H2 goal after 70 mins
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon maybe i should wait until then, do you watch them all? i feel like i would waste time watching the games. Or to you is it best to just use ips? appreciate your advice
I use IP's John but I use a provider that also shows a rating or pressure indicator based on the last 10 minutes play so want to see that high so I know the team behind is having a real go and may leave gaps at the back.
Feel free to PM me any time you want a chat.
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I was at the same cross roads as others have mentioned tonight and still am. I have been on this journey for a while now and I know Its been mainly red the last 18 months but in the first proper year I was up and hadn't put a lot in to do that but like it can I pretty much lost that and a little bit more due to chasing what it was and doing that in swindled down more. My stakes have always been bit high and I can go on with times where they are low and have an good time but not seeing the bank grow. Yes only putting on £2 stakes and getting back pence doesn't seem too good but I guess it builds the discipline so that's what I'm trying to do now. As it can be easy to say it's only a couple of quid I'll let it run etc
I have tried numerous of strategies numerous of sports. But I have put a lot of effort in and sometimes it's like am I ever going to get it or is it just a lost caused. I defo want to make sure I am profitable and it doesn't have to be a lot only enough to cover the expenses that it cost to do it. I.e sky sports the sub here etc.
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Tonight's watchlist for potential goals trades:
5/6 went over 2.5 but most had goals too early for me. I only got into the one that fell that 1 goal short but fortunately scratched it after the first goal so a level night.
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@bottlabroon maybe i should wait until then, do you watch them all? i feel like i would waste time watching the games. Or to you is it best to just use ips? appreciate your advice
