The road to full time
-
@martin-futter said in The road to full time:
@darri i think fhg will pick back up after the vid is past us, i'm not trading it myself at the moment
Vid?
-
@darri i think fhg will pick back up after the vid is past us, i'm not trading it myself at the moment
-
What an up and down day again this end to november is proving sticky for me right now. Definitely over traded today with the new stakes in place that was easily the most iv traded in a day since going full time. Im not going to do a detailed update today, not much to talk about. Found the cricket really hard to judge today and exited quite early as focus was on the football, not sure im rating the quality on show in it which is making it harder to read. I mean samit patel is deemed a overseas pro and made it look easy today but wouldnt even be 2nd string for england. So the quality compared to what iv previosuly been trading just isnt there. Maybe a more focussed approach midweek will help.Looking at the football if i hadnt traded those FHGs then id have made a more of a profit on the football. Decembers plans for strategies are definitely coming forward now and as of tomorrow ill be primarily a LCS trader for rest of year, with the set and forgets helping us along in background. The add on LTDs definitely helped today as they ended up in profit, but the changes will help me become a more all rounded trader rather than just a late goal trader.
-
@lee-woodman i will try to do that one day this coming week maybe next saturday or sunday
-
@lee-woodman said in The road to full time:
It would be a very interesting read if you were able to do an overview of a certain day and how you got to trade the games you did. So let’s say your filter gave 15 games, you could list them and then say ‘I removed this game because their top scorer was injured, this game because one team has nothing to play for, this one because they had a 10000 mile trip in midweek or whatever. Then next step is the games you were keeping an eye on I play and a quick overview of why you didn’t trade each one. So ‘this game was 3-0, this game was flat, this game was 4.0 to lay at 70’ or whatever reason. Obviously it’d take a bit of time and I wouldn’t expect it, it’d be very interesting nonetheless
this would be useful good Idea well thought of mate.
-
It would be a very interesting read if you were able to do an overview of a certain day and how you got to trade the games you did. So let’s say your filter gave 15 games, you could list them and then say ‘I removed this game because their top scorer was injured, this game because one team has nothing to play for, this one because they had a 10000 mile trip in midweek or whatever. Then next step is the games you were keeping an eye on I play and a quick overview of why you didn’t trade each one. So ‘this game was 3-0, this game was flat, this game was 4.0 to lay at 70’ or whatever reason. Obviously it’d take a bit of time and I wouldn’t expect it, it’d be very interesting nonetheless
-
@Darri @Martin-Walker gents, thanks for your posts, both have helped me get my head straight already ...... I know where I have to go with this
-
I track my filters strike rate on its own and my traded games based on everything darri mentioned here plus some other things ive added and the filter runs at 77% strike rate at 65 mins and my traded games are at 88% strike rate at 65 mins.
All the extras do add up. Theres less games to trade but it allows me to stake higher and have way less bad runs which can really help with confidence for people struggling.
I think its 3 or 4 losers in a row compared to never more than 1 -
@ben-dobie if a game has popped up on my list via the stats software then its met my criteria for pre match stats. The only things id then do is to eliminate with motivation in mind so league table, form, stage of season etc. The biggest elimator is in play when i can see how each game is going. Tons of games have goals too early for me because i trade so late on and by that time iv got a good understanding of how the game has been so can just say yes or no then.
If your list is too long for you to manage then tweak between 5games and 10 games see if there are teams with both current and historic form on both lists and eliminate those that arent. I have often done this when lists are too big. Remember the stats software is just helping us to find games not give us dead cert trades. Hopefully thats the thing thatll stick in the mind from these posts.
Remember that sheet you showed me of your results have you worked on them since?
-
@Darri morning mate, seen your post on the Football Thread thanks.
I do have a lot of trades similair to yours that I'm on then I have a look on the thread and you've backed them so i know I'm doing something right there, I was on the spurs one you mention below ..... but I'm obviously getting one trades that are losing too quite often. I started trading the late goals due to reading this thread so I do take in what your say.I have a question for you with regards to your pre match selections... how many games will you do pre match research for on say a Saturday if your filter gave you 10 - 15 games ? I know you can eliminate some straight away using motivation but do you have certain stats that have to be met before you'll look more closely at games and can therefore reduce the list further ?
-
@chris-osborne thanks about the spurs post, i think ill start to do these rather than the daily updates with football. Just pick one game each week and explain why i entered and if it won or lost. I think loads of people and iv been guilty myself of just rambling out a big guide on how to trade when really you cannot relate that without a live example.
-
@chris-osborne the thing with data or historic data is its in the past. We cant rely on it to tell us how the next game will go. But what it can do is to help us identify what games are likely to repeat a trend. Its why i like to only do the last 5 games worth of data home/away. Current form is better than older form as football changes patterns during seasons otherwise same teams would be on our lists every weekend. Plus i think the markets favour long term trends than short ones so prices can sometimes not yet be in balance to this new change fully. But its old data, each game plays out differently so you must treat each game in that way. I know there are some people doing just fine with historic stats alone but they have small margins, trust me you against the markets with just data it will not be a healthy margin for error.
BTW these are still daily battles i have too im no saint. But i do think about these things before each days trading too. Actually in the last week i felt i drifted from that approach. But i know what to do this weekend to correct that. Just take time bud.
-
Hi, I'm not an experienced trader like you guys. I love to read all your comments, and I want to ask you something. I don't know if you know inplaytrading.com, is a good site for in-play stats. What it's your opinion about them?
-
@lee-woodman the goal coming before you enter or after you decide not to trade is a hard part of trading. You really have to be disciplined with it. Its a case simply of if the game doesnt fit your selection process then it just isnt even considered a opportunity. There are going to be hundreds of games every year for you to trade from your filtered games. So another opportunity is just around the corner.
Yep motivation and current score plays a big part. I like the analysis of those looking into this on the forum right now. Just have to be careful with price as often markets can start to influence price based on that team expected to come back. But totally gold if you get your average price and market not totally factoring that in. Really trading is simple in terms of once you have things all setup and comfortable with your approach it simply does become making sure your average odds are better than your strike rate. Its just getting to that stage that can take a bit of time.
Keep it up tho mate, like reading your posts as you have a good analytical approach which will suit you long term. These little things will just hep you quicker get a set way of trading.
-
@darri agree with Lee, a couple of awesome posts not sure how I missed the Spurs game analysis when you initially posted but definitely invaluable and now bookmarked.
I’m as guilty as anyone of relying on data too much, I can’t help it at times I spend 40hrs a week mainly working with and interpreting spreadsheets - need to look past that
-
@darri Great post Darri. Its something ive been working on over the last few weeks and will definitely be focussing more on this month - making sure in-play stats are reflective of what you expected to happen before the game. Its been frustrating at times when a game appears on your filter, you dont trade because stats arent there and then a goal comes out of nowhere! Another thing has been motivation, moreso a factor in leagues near the end of their season (Norway, Sweden, Japan etc). Teams winning 1-0 at home against a team with nothing to play for who would normally kick on and go for a 2nd or 3rd are happy to just take the 1-0 and the 3 points. But if they were against a stronger away team or a team fighting relegation then the game is much more open. So playing the situation and knowing the motivation of both teams and how it relates to what is going on is a big thing in my opinion
-
@darri said in The road to full time:
Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham
Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.Here is the inplay stats at HT:
Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.
Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:
Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.
Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask
Here is an example i posted earlier in the month of using the said advice below
-
Iv done countless of these but seeing people struggle with trading is hard for me to read and no one should feel in limbo with trading. So ill do an updated version of a post here. Hope this helps. Please ask questions on this blog dont worry. Everyone iv helped before knows ill give the best advice i can, there isnt a golden way to trade but there are things we can do to limit risk and make a trade more likely to work long term for us. Dont pack in trading without at least trying these steps.
Pre: use the stats software to try to find games that expect a goal. Dont overload the filter just keep it as easy as possible. Its just a tool to help you get a more focussed amount of game rather than hunt for them on a busy weekend.
Take that list put it on flashscores and then go into each game and take a look at form: are the home team favourites, if so are they playing well last 5 games, are the away team conceding and losing last 5 games.
Then the absolute must KEY PLAYER research. Find the top goal contributors to each team. WHY? Your filtering games on the stats software based on historic data. That goal data will be heavily influenced by those players. So easy example - spurs this season. Kane and son have contributed 76% of all goals scored, this isnt to mention the assists they provide too. If they arent in the team then all the filtering of data you just did is pretty much inaccurate and useless. Its why people struggle with system like trading. Each game should be treated on its merits.
You see people saying there filter does +80% all the time but actually it could be even better if they were adding these things to it. People can become stubborn i know i was and bashed my head against the trading wall for ages. Until i just listened and adapted to what others said and worked out how the markets work in my favour/personality. Dont just rely solely on a filter please.
Once you have a selection that has ticked these boxes then we take it in play.Inplay: WATCH the game. Stats on website are good but nothing beats watching because those 5 shots on target could all have been long range shots with little pressure on goal. Try to find a good rhythm to a game, i trade match flow so is each attack getting into the box for a shot etc and getting into expected goals ranges ie the V from the goal. If this is too technical then just look to judge is this game lively enough for another goal.
Your key player research, ryan and martin did a good video on this, are the key players you highlighted dominating the game. Is jamie vardy getting in behind the defence more often than not, are son and kane linking up well. More importantly are they on the pitch. Alot of my trading can often be when a key player comes on. I remember a wolves trade not long ago when i backed when traore was coming on as he would be causing mayhem in the final minutes.
If on your filter you have say a home team bias are they on top on the stats. Are they the team with the most chances.
If you find yourself saying yes to all of these then this is a game we keep watching and start to look at price. I often dont even look at price until i feel confident a game looks good.Price: Value is an opinion of many but for me its based on your historic success. I hear many people trying to trade with very small risk reward. This is what i think i would refer to as trading like a fan. You see a game and it looks lively but the odds are so slim. But you have seen someone on the forum post for the game too so you think your missing out on an obvious game. NO! Let them go trade that. Least your both looking at a good game with loads of chances. Wait.
Now what i suggest you do is paper trade for 100 games. This might seem backward but its all about learning. Whats the point in throwing money at something for years and not getting anywhere. PAPER trade please. This way you can get an idea of your strike rate. Are you averaging 75% after 60 mins? Then try make 1.5 your min odds. But dont be robotic with it. Just know your min entry. Not every game is value at 1.5 so dont just assume it will work because its on your filter. lot of people doing set trades i do them too but its because i dont like to focus on other trades outside my main late goal approach. These set strategies tend to not perform nearly as well as those who tackle each game at a time. They are still profitable i do them but they arent as profitable and margin for error is night and day. So if your just starting to learn trading dont be doing system based things or paid for systems from other sites, paper trade and trade each match from your list on its merits.If you prefer system based approach and dont care for all the above then honestly the best way is to just record at least 100 trades worth. Find out your strike rate. This you then convert to odds. So if you have a 50% strike rate id suggest you get min odds of 2.10 for another goal. This wont make as much profit but if your data is correct and you do have this system showing long term consistency then it can be easy. The margin for error tho is worse, so a few mistakes could scupper this approach. Im doing a system based strategy in the FHG project which anyone can follow along with. I posted the filter and im continuing to update it when games qualify.
For me a trade is all about finding reasons not to trade it. As traders we are trying to reduce as much risk as possible. All these steps will help to do that. I know there are traders out there who think they have a golden system/filter but really your not maximising it if you dont do these steps. I know i cant help everyone and for some this way might not suit them but trading isnt just easy otherwise everyone would be doing it. Please read over the above and watch some videos absorb all the info. We have a huge month coming up and id advise anyone struggling to practise this month in prep for next year. Dont be stubborn about your system become adaptable to each game on your list.
-
Damn its good having cricket back! No football to trade, goals already in the 1st half and being very strict this weekend.Cricket:
First introduction to LPL today. Waited on an entry until i had seen how afridi was going to play. BOOM BOOM is never a boring watch is he
50 off just 20 balls. Given the stage of the game and with amir to open i kept my position open. Commentators and coaches saying that was a competitive total seemed wrong in my view. With the boundaries only being 70 odd metres was surely below a good total. Amir didnt start expolsively and i exited my trade and lay in wait for an entry for jaffna if they lost a few wickets id enter. My whole idea was based around malik. Stalwart of a batsmen and showed a touch of class to hold his innings for the team. I entered at 1.6 and rode down the price with an eventual green up. Wasnt taking any chances first game back.Taking that feeling into the england game felt back to form. De kock and du plessis building a solid powerplay partnership i managed to get in for a small swing trade. I exited when de kock got out so missed getting out at a better time but still green to build onto a further trade. Wasnt until after the eng powerplay that i started to build my position. With archer batting at 10 for england it wasnt a case of wickets in hand but just keeping up with the run rate. Eng have a ridiculously strong batting side for t20. And when the markets didnt favour england i jumped on in. Stokes and bairstow got going well and set a nice benchmark for rest of innings. With a planned outlook of the game i set england to need 80 by 10 overs and 120 by 15 overs and if they looked like getting those targets i felt safe they would prove too strong. Using those scores allowed me to maintain control on my current trade and i ended up building into my trade in the 12th overs. Exited the liability in the 18th and allowed england to go on to win comfortably.
What a great start to cricket coming back. Really well controlled by me on the trades. Clear in and out trades and always felt in control not letting the game influence my trades but the price which is absolutely key in cricket. There are 2 t20s tomorrow. Going to need to plan well on timings for trades tomorrow a good job iv made some changes for this exact reason as i said in the last post.
Try finish november strongly
-
So a change is happening in december. My trading portfolio has moved in a different way to what i thought. The addition of cricket was an eye opener in a couple of ways. I can see the potential in actual trading a match, unlike football you get multiple opportunities inplay to trade. With football its based around one type of event = a goal which changes prices. Cricket there are more variables which can impact price. But for me the biggest thing is time. Over the ipl i was treated to having trades to do during the day and then football at night, almost routine like. I had thought this could be a good thing. However, time is important for me now with trading. If i want to add cricket as a main portfolio sport i need to adapt. So iv set about making changes.
Youll notice on my results sheet a few sheets have gone. This is because im stopping trading them from now on. The results will stay obviously but the data of them in terms of each game has now gone. Im wanting a more streamlined and simple approach to trading which can help compliment my time on the cricket. So LTD and OTHER have both been removed. The reason being im moving on from trades that require me to be active in the markets. So LTD id have to green up etc. Which means i need to pay attention for when a goal is scored etc. The OTHER included lay the winning team. Again same thing had to pay attention for when a goal was scored. Now dont get me wrong if football is your only sport then absolutely i wouldnt be removing these. As you can see LTD and OTHER after over 100 trades if all stays the same make a handsome return.
So to re balance my portfolio a small increase of stakes will go towards LCS. Which will become my main trade for football. I have in the past used the same staking for some strategies which really isnt efficient. Small increase from 2%-3%. Not drastic to some but remember im trading with a full time bank so it is actually a £100 stake increase. This isnt a punt this has been thoroughly analysed not just with the data from the sheets above but from past results over the last year. The worst runs wouldnt go above what id consider danger limits so its a more efficient staking in line with it now being my main strategy.
To add to this the set and forgets will compliment the new approach. The FHG project will in time get enough data in to decide on if its good enough. Right now there are very few coming through but winter leagues are now starting to develop enough games to qualify.
Then there is the 2.5 goals. This will now be a set 2.2 odds. Iv looked at historical odds for the games on the sheets and would have been a nice profit at these odds.
If you remember i did a strategy post a while back about a unders strategy i had been tracking. Well more data has been collected since and its a high enough performing one to be added. Once iv proof from the results sheet using my own bank as youll see ill start to post these in advance, right now tho id rather not post as i do know some people do place the trades i post, id rather be fully confident in them myself before id recommend them to others.
These set and forget strategies will be 1% staking. This as i say is a rebalance from what i was doing before. Obviously if they end up performing better than i expect then these can change but for the immediate future this is the plan. What i ideally would like is to be making 10% on the LCS and +4% from the set and forgets combined every month on average. From my recorded sheets this is possible. The Last 2 months oct/nov have been hit by 2 international breaks so really overall thats trades from one whole month rather than 2.So LCS (main): FHG, 2.5 and under (set and forget) is what will happen in december.
Now this has been brought on because of cricket. Really its because iv seen how lucrative cricket can be compared to football match by match. The more simple i can make football trading the more time i can inject into cricket. Now of course football is still my best earner iv worked on that for years now, its just a rebalance of time and effort. Iv logged too long into betfair even with planning of trades. In terms of how ill trade the LCS absolutely nothing changes apart from stakes. Ill still be watching inplay for trades etc but these small changes will make me more efficient as once iv deemed it a good trade ill then be able to place a lcs and leave it alone. I think ryan did something similar he calculated what made him more money per hour. Well for me iv done similar with each strategy.
With the cricket starting now this is why im making these changes. Wanted to write it down to almost verify it and for those who do follow this blog to see what is happening in my trading. Far more efficient and far more simple trading allowing me to leave more time and effort into the cricket. Right now GOLF is very much just a testing phase, but if it continues then its easily added as its set and forget and long term swing traded so no need to actively monitor it.
2021 is going to be a big year for me. Hopefully ill hit my next bank milestone and continue the snowball affect.
