Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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And there is a 3rd part which I'm looking into now and will post when I have all the data I want.
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This is the 2nd part:
When removing home offence of under 1.85 SO FAR it's a 50% proposition for over 2.5 SHG. Odds you say. Well here's what I have so far.
The only game so far below evens at the bookes is 1.92 which was Ajax. Almost surely over evens on betfair. Ajax won 5-2 scoring their 3rd SHG in the 95th.
After that between 2.05 - 2.3 (2.2-2.4 on betfair?) it's 2/4.
There are 12 games ranging from 2.42-3.0. Let's be conservative and say this is 2.5-3.2 on betfair. 7 wins and 5 losses.
There are 4 matches above 3.0 ave bookie price and still one winner. That 3.11 so prob closer to 3.3-3.35 on betfair. -
When I remove home offensive ratings below 1.6 it becomes this:
For over 1.5 goals H2 we have 26 wins wins and 9 losses. I've been keeping an eye on the odds as well because what's the point otherwise.
Collecting ave bookie odds which will almost always be beat it's 3 wins no losses YET when odds around 1.3 (to back).
It's 4 wins and 1 loss when odds are in the 1.4's (prob 1.5 on betfair and 3.0 to lay).
7 wins and 2 losses when odds in the 1.5's (I'd imagine in the 1.6's on betfair).
9 wins and 4 losses when in the 1.6's (1.7's on betfair?).
5 selections over that (1.7's-1.8's so prob 1.8's to 1.9's on betfair). 3 wins, 2 losses.If this were to continue as is at over 70% I can't see how it wouldn't make good money.
That's the first part of it.
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I may have been quiet on the ELO as it stutters and stammers away of recent but it doesn't mean I haven't been working on other stuff. Ready to share what I have so far now.
Just over 100 selections from what I first started tracking and it's 100% ratings based. The raw data isn't hugely impressive. There's enough games with sky high scorelines but there's also plenty where that's not the case. BUT........
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@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs
Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.
Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!
I have my list of laying the underdogs for today noted, with the system changed slightly. I am going to test this with small stakes. I am looking for the usual criteria with the Elo ratings and comebacks.
on top of this i have looking for where the favorite scores late on and the underdog concedes late on. I am going to enter between 70-80mins with a £2 liability and see how that plays. I struggle mentality when entering on higher odds so would be expecting to below 1.8 or below and i hope this will help me stay focussedFeel like I've taken around 20 steps back recently to hopefully move 30 steps forward in the not too distant future haha!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs
Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.
Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!
I have my list of laying the underdogs for today noted, with the system changed slightly. I am going to test this with small stakes. I am looking for the usual criteria with the Elo ratings and comebacks.
on top of this i have looking for where the favorite scores late on and the underdog concedes late on. I am going to enter between 70-80mins with a £2 liability and see how that plays. I struggle mentality when entering on higher odds so would be expecting to below 1.8 or below and i hope this will help me stay focussed -
Prob be a 10 game clean sweep today. Nonetheless I'm out for now.
On the plus side it's good to see one of my favourite leagues returning today. The high scoring Bolivians are back!
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@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs
Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.
Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!
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@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs
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ELO has been rubbish again today despite a win in Bayern and Sevilla. Time to pause. I'm working on other stuff although not ready to post yet.
Will keep tracking the ELO's but been a steady decline since Oct I think and It's not really getting any better.
Maybe when fans allowed back into the stadiums it might pick up again. Not really sure what to make of the fact it was flying post lockdown when all the leagues came back to finish but maybe after so long out the players were just really fired up to get going again.
Now they're all knackered and need a holiday haha!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Time to get to bed in case opportunity knocks early doors!
Following my decision to go 106+ on ELO difference I forgot to amend my spreadsheet so Dundee and the Brazil Series C don't qualify.
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Time to get to bed in case opportunity knocks early doors!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Fri ELO's and finally there's some football again haha!
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I read that pl home advantage has pretty much gone out of the window this season. Not all leagues like that but it may certainly explain why ELO has been far more up and down.
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer sending you some positivity mate! next international break is now 4 months away
Lovely!
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer sending you some positivity mate! next international break is now 4 months away
Thank god haha!
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@richard-latimer sending you some positivity mate! next international break is now 4 months away
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So tomorrow is another bucket of sweet FA again. Basically Telstar on the ELO's. That's it unless Kuwait is inplay properly which it very rarely is these days. Also not even sure on how Kuwait has performed.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Nothing has qualified yet today. Just Lillestrom as a potential on the ELO front.
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Paraguay comes through. I like this league.
