First Team to Score
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I've been working on a filter that is proving very good at predicting first team to score.
The question is how best to utilise it?
I don't have any bookmaker accounts and haven't for years so that option is out.
As most of the goals are coming first half I've been looking at backing said team in the HT market but in all but the biggest leagues the liquidity is absolutely dire in the HT markets and even if I can get in, I'm not sure I'll get out after a goal. I could use the FH goals market but it feels I'm not really taking advantage of predicting the team to score.I think I'm left with backing in the match odds market then trading out after the goal but thought I'd throw it open for discussion.
Thoughts please on the best way to utilise this?
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@wayne-ironside said in First Team to Score:
@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside 9pts is good, how long a period were those 100 games over?
17th October to the 8th November.
well that's fantastic then! just needs more testing
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@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside 9pts is good, how long a period were those 100 games over?
17th October to the 8th November.
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@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside try some betweens
like
- Between 2.0-2.5
- Between 1.5-2.0
- Between 1.5-2.5
8pts is good on max odds 2.5
Yes I did after I posted this and found 1.5-2.5 was 9pts. Will start tracking and see what comes up focusing on those odds.
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@wayne-ironside said in First Team to Score:
@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside try it with an odds limit and see if you would have performed better at certain odds,
Ok I'll take a look
So I had a look at using a few odds ranges and these were the results on a filter of 107 games
Min odds 1.5 = 5pts
Min odds 1.75 = 3pts
Min odds 2 = -1.5pts
Max odds 2 = 4pts
max odds 2.5 = 8ptsdon't really know what to make of it really.
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@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside try it with an odds limit and see if you would have performed better at certain odds,
Ok I'll take a look
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@martin-futter
Thanks been through it barely made a profit, and with commission would have been a loss.
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@martin-futter said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside depends on odds of the team, you can find out the approximate historical odds on BetExplorer and see if you would have made money, esp easy to backtest with the 60%
I'll take a look didn't know about betexplorer.
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@bottlabroon I have played around with this before as well, be interesting to see how this goes - I used to use the 'Next Goal' market but that was pretty crap for getting ££ matched so I switched it to the match odds - which I found worked best - I like the idea of splitting the stake onto the FHG as well as you'll cover yourself and get a good return on that market then if the goal doesn't come you've got the match odds one, I like that idea a lot.
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@bottlabroon said in First Team to Score:
@wayne-ironside said in First Team to Score:
What is your strike rate i have been working on the same thing. The strike rate for mine is 68% that over 101 games. The team i predict to score first also goes on to win 60% of the time. I am not sure whether this is a good strike rate or not really.
I'm switched off for the night now Wayne but I'll get back to you. The numbers currently will be backfitted though - I've not yet started live testing.
Nice thanks, read a couple of your other posts very interesting. Will surely make me a better trader. I have only been doing this a couple of months.
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@wayne-ironside said in First Team to Score:
What is your strike rate i have been working on the same thing. The strike rate for mine is 68% that over 101 games. The team i predict to score first also goes on to win 60% of the time. I am not sure whether this is a good strike rate or not really.
I'm switched off for the night now Wayne but I'll get back to you. The numbers currently will be backfitted though - I've not yet started live testing.
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What is your strike rate i have been working on the same thing. The strike rate for mine is 68% that over 101 games. The team i predict to score first also goes on to win 60% of the time. I am not sure whether this is a good strike rate or not really.
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@martin-futter
Yes it's the obvious way Martin. As most teams are taking the lead first half I'm thinking a split stake on the match odds and over 0.5 FHG once it gets above 2.00.
I'll do more testing...... -
@bottlabroon match odds market would work very well if you are getting this right often, unless a heavy odds on fav I would guess.
