The road to full time
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@darri Happy Birthday
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@darri happy birthday
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@darri said in The road to full time:
No trades from me the next few days, my 28th bday today
so gonna take a few days off to enjoy it as much as i can with covid restrictions, looking forward to the rest of november 
Happy birthday!
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No trades from me the next few days, my 28th bday today
so gonna take a few days off to enjoy it as much as i can with covid restrictions, looking forward to the rest of november -
Bit of a different sport to keep the month ticking over.Golf:
Dont often get involved with golf apart from majors. Could it be something to look at going forward yes. Thats a couple of majors iv managed to come away with a decent profit. I play the equivalent to fantasy football for golf over on another website and used that research into my picks for this.
Place market: 3 picks here, R. Fowler and J. Speith both around the same price of 7.0/7.6 and matt kuchar 11.0. Reasoning from each of the us masters since 2014 one or more of these players has been in the top 10. Given how i structured my stakes if just one had placed it would have been nice profit and 2 would have been a bonus. None placed but place markets are a market i might look into more not sure if the liquidity is there in the smaller tournaments.
Win market: R.Fowler, J.Spieth and D.Johnson. I felt that if an american managed to get to the top of the leaderboard or close then odds would swing their way. Fowler and spieth have proven history here and were supported by my place trade in the other markets. However the trade that gives us the profit is on the eventual winner. This research was a pretty much the same flow:
Dustin has been in ultra consistent form. He has either won or come 2nd in 6/8 tournaments in the build up to this. With the most recent tournament being just the week before he managed a 2nd place finish. I dont think people quite realise how hard that is to do in golf given the size of entrants to them. I had a combined stake on him with the other two picks. He started as he meant to go on. A solid 65 score round 1, backed up by a safe 70, another 65 round 3 meant he held a 4 shot lead going into the last round. This is when i managed to gain some nice moves on his price. He had a wobble of a few bogies in a row and price rolled out and i think the chasers got to within 1 shot of the lead. The thing is most people would just trade the situation what i like to call "fanboy trades" which iv done plenty in the past. Instead you have to find well planned trades to really profit in trading. With the back nine having 2 get able par 5s i felt all he really needed was to have a solid round of 70 he would win the tournament. At the stage he was at that would mean as long as he managed to birdie 1/2 par 5s and par the rest with sensible golf shots he would make that score. So i just placed a trade and as soon as he was clear of holes 11/12 his price stormed into 1.07. From there with the 2 par 5s to come and the chasers not gaining shots on him it was plain sailing as long as he played safe golf shots.
Nice win to top up the months p/l. Iv not been able to focus on the football after scotlands win the other night. But i may look to get involved with the groups that are still open. I think scotlands group is all to play for on wednesday as is wales. A nice change of scenery to trade with he golf iv added a sheet will maybe look to see if the research i do for the tournaments holds up in the regular tours. But again highlighting that well planned out trades with solid reasoning and using value has worked. Dont just trade the match situations "fanboy" you must always use price as the main factor in any trade. We are all guilty some like me have halted their on progress by doing it for too long, but you must start cutting those type of trades out. And im almost positive its because iv experience from focusing on how the markets work from just one sport and then moving onto others. Not really sure how else to word or repeat that to others without sounding like a bore. But i like to think im a live example of how results change for the better when you start thinking more about your trading.
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@darri sorry, didn't realise friendly banter wasn't allowed.....
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@martin-futter iv rewatched them over and over
extra time and pens quite honestly broke me for a bit with nerves, what a feeling, i also hate going first in pens@Chris-Osborne i really hope so too mate, imagine how good it will be for all fans in the two countries if covid has eased and we can actually get to see all this properly
@Matthew-Biggins if you have nothing good/positive to say then save it for yourself mate :scotland:
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Scotland getting to a major tournament is a bit like when a toddler kicks a ball for the first time without falling over.....it’s not that much of an achievement and other people have been doing it with ease for ages but we let them have their moment anyway because it’s been so long.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
23 years of waiting! we are finally going to a major tournament :scotland: honestly took a while for the adrenaline to simmer last night, what a rollercoaster of a night! Taking the next few days off
:clinking_beer_mugs: iv grown up not ever seeing us in one, when we last were i wasnt really caring too young, shed a few tears last night Good to have more British representation in the finals, hopefully England v Scotland will happen with supporters in the UK somewhere which is what that game deserves, none of this nonsense of moving the finals to russia of all places
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@darri said in The road to full time:
23 years of waiting! we are finally going to a major tournament :scotland: honestly took a while for the adrenaline to simmer last night, what a rollercoaster of a night! Taking the next few days off
:clinking_beer_mugs: iv grown up not ever seeing us in one, when we last were i wasnt really caring too young, shed a few tears last night really enjoyed that shoot out, fantastic penalties!
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23 years of waiting! we are finally going to a major tournament :scotland: honestly took a while for the adrenaline to simmer last night, what a rollercoaster of a night! Taking the next few days off
:clinking_beer_mugs: iv grown up not ever seeing us in one, when we last were i wasnt really caring too young, shed a few tears last night -
@darri said in The road to full time:
Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham
Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.Here is the inplay stats at HT:
Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.
Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:
Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.
Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask
@darri superb post mate
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@darri top stuff on the IPL and a shout out for the help over the tournament. Having only mainly traded test matches and being a bit of a red ball snob my cricket trading for limited overs stuff was pretty poor going into the IPL, but it turned around nicely and has given me a good platform going forward so cheers for that it’s greatly appreciated
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@darri Hi Darri, just wanted to say that I've really enjoyed reading your blog, many thanks for posting it. It's been very interesting for me as a newcomer to trading to see you describe your thought process regarding trades and the point you make about getting the right odds has really hit home with me. Reading your blog has even got me interested in cricket!
I'll be watching Scotland as well on Thursday but more in hope than expectation. I'm old enough to remember when qualifying for tournaments seemed like a mere formality and beating the likes of Spain and France was expected. My 2 sons have grown up never having seen us at a major tournament so lets hope that will change.
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@chris-osborne the longer formats are fascinating because its a more tactical game, making trading options so varied. The ability to trade in and out of a cricket game with no worry of getting decent size stakes matched at precise moments in a match is so appealing to me now.
I do keep testing new football things but i dont want to be so reliant and bank heavy on one sport, football gets stunted because the main markets: match odds and the overs markets are the only ones which keep good liquidity. So building into other markets/strategies becomes harder the bigger your bank grows.
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@darri I've cut back on the cricket trading as was doing too much with Football and Tennis but traded some of the test matches in the English Summer and found them fascinating. Mind you the Australia v India series will be starting around midnight our time so unlikely to get involved with work committments.
Read somewhere today Kohli is only available for the first game of the test series.
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@chris-osborne if this was any of my main trades i would not have been touching the game. However given its a set and forget strategy i just allow it to run. It wont make as much as my main trades, but it helps me use more of my bank over the long term without increasing risk of variance from my MAIN trades.
Yep right now im only trading cricket if i can watch it. Really looking forward to the longer stuff, my way of positional trading will actually be more suited to odi and test which is easier to manage. I love the schedule cricket season has, this year is different but you can properly target tournaments within the year and plan what your going to be trading in advance. Still early days yet for me but cracking start. Do you trade cricket aswell bud?
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@darri One question on the Seattle trade, we're you not put off at all as it was the ast game of the MLS regular season?
Plenty of cricket coming up with Big bash starting soon and Tests and ODI's starting at the end of the month all over the Southern Hemisphere. Pakistan franchise T20 also starting soon.
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Couple of days worth of trades, 1 set and forget and 1 cricket match.Football:
Just a quick one here, 2.5 trade landed yesterday in the seattle game. Not sure how many will qualify over next week or so but liking the versatility to the type of trade and hopefully end of november it will have been a handy set and forget addition to help compliment my MAIN trades.
Cricket:
The END of the IPL, what a start to adding cricket to my full time trading. Laying the foundations to start properly staking in line with my bank. Iv been saying this to those who are up for chats that cricket is what i see myself long term moving too. The money in the markets are huge compared to football. They fit nicely with time schedules and you get fully rewarded for well planned trades.
DC losing cheap wickets meant it was just a case of waiting for a good moment of change to the flow of the match. Iyer and Pant, started to go along nicely and hit a good milestone come 10 overs. I started to lay MI and a few overs of good runs meant i locked in a nice conservative profit going into the chase. DC falling well short of a good total on this ground and with odds of 1.43 i backed MI. This represented value to me. The markets only allowing them to still be this high due to it being a final. I said on chat to james couple good overs and this price steams in to under 1.2. End of 2 overs and MI blitzed to 1.14. From here i just scalped my way to a nice healthy profit. What a cracking way to end the ipl.Conclusion:
With the end of the ipl ill now be looking forward to other formats with tests and ODIs incoming. Bringing all the experience of the markets from football into cricket has been so helpful. I cannot stress how much taking the year or so out to just work on one sport has helped me as a trader. I grew to a full time bank and do this for a living. Now im in a position to start branching out. Iv done big posts about this mentality and process before but please use me as an example of how this kind of thing can be done and within only 2 years of actually being profitable (gambling background and blown banks).
Looking forward to the internationals in the football this week coming. Its my time to find cracking value as others avoid it. There are some great games coming up, see what scotland can do on thurs but i may have to take a few days off if they end up winning :clinking_beer_mugs:Edit: thanks for those that have talked about the guide i posted on the spurs game, glad some have found it useful. I hopefully will do a few others over time and hope the full transparency is helping rather than people just talking about a subject
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham
Great write up Darri
