2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Lay gasquet @ 1.07 (for 51) half stake (25) out at 1.25 sadly Baena lost his break advantage. another little out of the market at 1.12 (10)
both players seem a little frustrated on there serve
closed out @1.11 (4.45 green) with set 3-3 on Baena serve
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Got my eye on the Sabalenka v Paolin game today.
Sabalenka should be too strong and overpower Paolini but she can be a slow starter as the service stats below show: -
She is also broken first 55% of the time: -
Finally, if she loses the 1st set, she has won the 2nd set 45% of the time
I'll be laying her from the start to try and catch the potential slow start with a quick exit if she breaks first and holds her subsequent service game
Will be backing her if she loses the 1st set.
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Backed Nadal after losing first set managed to offset most of loss from Schwartz. If only I'd laid Nadal at the start which was my plan
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Topsy turvey day with Diego letting me down but got some back with Ugo closing out at 1-1 in the 3rd but despite 2 points green I was still down. Crawled it back on the cricket which was good but still very small red on the day.
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sadly i was on schwartzmann he wasnt serving too badly in the first set from what i watched and in the second the early break i couldnt got match so another bad day at the office for myself been too many in recent months.... Been stepping away etc from time to time to re-evaluate. Sadly keep going into old patterns.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe I had a look at Schwartzmann as to me he should be closer in price to medvedev
Or maybe not judging from that demolition job
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@james-woodroffe I had a look at Schwartzmann as to me he should be closer in price to medvedev
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Could be a day for Dogs in Paris.
Will be monitoring getting on Shwartzman, Humbert and possibly Stan in the first set. Will not be getting out if Humbert and Diego lose their first sets however as these matches don’t have short enough priced favourites and the underdogs all have a massive chance to win. It’s a slightly different approach to had we been dealing with short priced favourites. As I’m not looking at them to pinch a set I’m actually confident they could win. -
@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon I download them most days if there's any historically your interested in?
Thanks Chris. It was more that I was just finding my way around the site and noticed there was a few qualifiers for Martin's strategy late afternoon in Paris. Out of curiosity once the match started I went back to double check the qualifiers and it had disappeared. Same thing happened in the next match(es) but one of the qualifiers remained and the other had disappeared despite both matches being in the first set.
It just got me wondering if I was missing something not being used to the data and there was maybe some price criteria or similar that could make them come and go.
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Looking at doing some scalping this morning with Anderson v Medvedev and then Mannarino v Yishioka on my radar. Nice relaxed day and hoping it works out well.
Thinking there’s also value in Anderson and Gasquet as dogs today to take a set at least today. Anderson comfortably defeated Medvedev last week and Gasquet matches up well with most on a indoor hardcourt which is not a favourite of Shwartzman who “may” have his attention on London which he qualified for yesterday following Berrentini’s defeat. -
@bottlabroon I download them most days if there's any historically your interested in?
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@bottlabroon yes they should do best to ask @adam-williams on the software support threads
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@Martin-Futter Regarding your Lay The First Set Winner data selections.
Do matches disappear from the data feed once in play? Just browsing earlier and a couple seemed to disappear once the match went in play but I can't see anything in the filters that could explain why they could become non-qualifiers after the start. -
@james-woodroffe If only we could time our exits, we'd have this trading game sussed. I've also been a bit greedy and wanting players to drop a couple of more points before laying them but then missing a significant swing trade - all part of the learning process
A couple of Lay 1st set trades as well today Simon v Paul was fine, gave some back on Mannarino not sure if I'll get involved in anything else today see how the 1st sets pan out
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@chris-osborne learnt something new today in regards to holding on to trades and getting out when in green. I didn’t write about the Nishioka match but you’ll have seen it was great for a lay the first set winner trade with a 53% rate. I was only going to get involved if Nishioka lost the first set as I was certain that he would win the match before it started. He was broken first game of the second set and I bailed for a 2 point loss. Lo and behold he breaks back takes the 2nd and wins the match in a 3rd set canter. Sangdren was the almost opposite. I had no idea who I thought would win but saw the value in Sandgren. As soon as he won the first set I was able to close and got back my loss from the previous match. Great stuff that you got on and were able to green up and got out cause as we know he blew it and went down in 3. I’m going to work harder on when I stay in trades and be prepared to risk a little more by staying in and maximising profit and when to go “Yep I’m out now.”
Glad Tennys was good to both of us.
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@james-woodroffe thanks James quick 0.75 PST profit on Sandgren in my lunch hour. For once got out just before It started going pear shaped for him
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A couple of matches I’m looking at today and making sure I have a trading plan as yesterday cost me by getting involved in a stupid trade that grumped me out for most of last night.
Tennys Sandgren v Piere Hughes Herbert.
Good value here on big Tennys as an underdog against the local boy PHH. Sandgren is not in the greatest of form carrying a 4 match losing streak into this match but neither is HH which makes 2.54 a pretty tasty price for the big Texan. Sandgren holds a distinct advantage in service game holds and with no crowd there will be no locals in Bercy getting behind HH I’m seeing a tough match here and looking for a nice drop on Sandgren to lock in some green but will need to be patient.
Hugo Humbert v Stefanos Tsitsipas.
This is a strong 3 set chance sitting at 48% and could also be a very good match to scalp (shall see) both have excellent service hold percentages so it will be a case of waiting for those entry points and getting involved. It might clash with “house husband” duties given the time of the match but we shall see.
Go Green
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@chris-osborne yeah mate, Anderson was serving poor as the set went on and never got a look at Rublev really.
