The road to full time
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Nice end to a good return month. You never lose it
Cricket:
Scalping, scalping and more scalping. Thats all i did today on the cricket. Both games were too one sided to be able to take positions on. Got to admit i used to think you could never make alot from scalping but today i proved myself wrong. The amount matched on cricket is ludicrous and so easy to get scalps off quick and with decent stakes. I can see this might be a trend going forward for me.
Football:
2 set and forgets one partly matched the other a full loss. Will monitor november to see if there is something in the data to improve. 2 batches of testing suggested it would be more profitable than what its showing, could be variance after 2 purple patches of testing.
LCS in japan this morning got me underway nicely. Kawasaki are goal machines this year. Hearts game was on the tv. Up here in scotland we dont get much attention from traders. Yet it consistently been one of my best trading nations, i suppose i do follow it so small edges can be found. Hearts are a division below and hibs have started the season well. Hearts took the lead on a rain soaked hampden pitch. Hibs for me had been growing into the game more with boyle attacking on the counter and endless crosses into the box. LCS and Lay of hearts at 1.39 as an additional trade. Both winning after hibs equalised.
Liverpool brought on shaqiri and jota to liven up the attack. Been super impressed with jota for liverpool wasnt sure how he would fit but impact sub look ripe. Had a disallowed goal but liverpool getting the winner. Never did the LTD part of my trade as odds never showed value in my opinion.
Haugesund game was just a standard trade good goalscoring positions and the price on offer was far too good. I dont know why people shy away from these type of games. Weather is often much harder for the defence than attack.Conclusion:
I will do a post updating the overall months trading and summary. What a great couple of days to finish october.
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@rachel-murray perfect
its just a handy reference to help me refrain from going with my gut instead of actual facts/stats. Ill keep it going for rest of comp. Im hoping by using it for this ipl when the next one comes ill have a good understanding of what a price should be at certain match situations, which will mean i can spot value better. -
@darri Finding your cricket sheet a great help, thanks
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Nice bounce from yesterdayFootball:
Hamburg game not on my filters but had marked it to watch. Hamburg have started the league well and wanted to see how the game panned out. 1-1 on 71 mins i entered the LCS @1.75 and then 5 mins later entered the LTD. Weirdly the stats didnt suggest and end to end game but i like to see how often a team gets into a clear goalscoring position. Similar to that of a expected goals metric. Goal came in the 82nd minute and cashed out the LTD, just aswell i think hamburg equalised not long after. Nice and comfortable win for a friday.
Cricket:
Frustrated with this today. Backed KP when gayle and rahul had settled, and archer had finished his opening spell. The stats of RRs bowlers compared to archers is unbelievably bad. RR definitely over reliant. Entered at 1.88 and that quickly fell after a solid powerplay. However midway thru archer came back on and instead of following and managing the trade i exited for a safe profit. 2 overs later the went on a roll of great overs. Cut short a good profit, but iv learnt that indecision costs. Id have been more annoyed if it had gone wrong given my opinion on the situation. KP getting to a really good score but never really getting out of sight in the markets so not a positional trade to take going into the chase. Instead i waited to see what happened. Stokes blasting away and setting up a really good chance for RR to chase a decent total. Another couple of wickets fell, and i jumped on the chance to back RR. If you look at the sheet i update everyday on the cricket thread, you will see they were well on top. Almost 20-30 runs more than what KP had at the same stage of innings throughout. A nice traded day for the cricket. Starting to gain consistency in my thoughts with them and entries. Still defensive with how long i allow trades to run but these things will come with time.
4 games of IPL this weekend will be tough to manage so might select a game to fit around football. Part of the benefit i have with my new office setup is the ability to have multiple screens. Will plan in the morning how the day will pan out in terms of timings but i will make sure football is the focus as id like to end october with a good weekend of football.
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@darri
I'm not sure I've explained anything better than you. You actually demonstrate what you talk about all the time.
Going back to the Europa League- at no point in any of the earlier stages (last week, the prelims etc) was there a 0-0. Had to happen at some point.
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@stuart-capstick well said mate! explained it better than me. The mindset of long term thinking is hard at first but its gets easier like you say with time and experience. I think this time last year is when i started to really show results in my trading. Fast forward a year and i couldnt imagine being in such a fortunate position to do this full time. Its just lightbulb moments every so often that add up over time to help.
Not beating myself up, this is why i tried to explain it below its not about the days or weeks its about your strategies, they need time to breathe and have losses, as long as you maintain consistency with good odds and match selection youll tip the scales in profit, you will know iv had terrible weeks yet alone days
. Ill still profit each month and this month (only traded 1.5 weeks) should still be a good one if i get a couple good ones rest of week.Yep there has been an increase into 0-0s since covid all began. Couple of easy variables such as fans and health protocols will be affecting results. So far tho apart from tonight it hasnt really hampered my trades too much
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@darri
Coming up to about 18 months trading for me and I've never had such a bad run. The difference now is that I'm accepting of it. A year ago and I would have been considering ditching strategies and saying a few Hail Marys, pondering whether to overstake on a forthcoming game.
Most of this month's profit has gone over the last few days, but I know I'll get it back just through consistent trading. God knows I've studied and gained qualifications in stats at post graduate level, but I can honestly say that to understand the law of large numbers you really need experience with "skin in the game".By the way, don't beat yourself up about the Europa League this evening; there have never been so many draws or 0-0 scorelines as tonight. There's a great book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb- The Black Swan. The past few days have been a Black Swan event in terms of football results.
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The football deserved its own post tonight. Probably my worst run (not day) since iv been full time trading and it was down to really bad managing of trades.Football:
When your own team is 0-2 up and then go on to draw 2-2 i should have thought better to play with the superstitious gods. All 5 losing. The europa has been a sore one for me today. 4/4 of them losing and 1 swedish game off the filter. Now I could go into every game and analyse but for me on losing days i like to just accept it and move on. The thing is i have only traded less than 2 weeks. And when you click on the results sheet you can see that despite today we had such a good cushion to bounce back on. Europe is a bonus for me as a trader. Now if i look over my results i can see that champs league is by far one of my best strike rates and profit per game. So it stays. However maybe iv been a bit stubborn with europa league. I will re look at them in the latter stages as i dont seem to have a good handle on them. Couple of losing thursdays. Much the same position as last week we go into the weekend off the back of a really good week with champs leagues firing us a lovely profit and then a poor Thursday.
Heres the thing tho and iv been telling people this recently. I dont view my day to day trades like you do when your just starting trading. I view them after batches of games. So if after 50 games is my strategies performing the way i expect. Now i dont know when that mindset kicked in, but take last week for example all my strategies where in the red. If i acted like i used to i would have done some overtrading or staked too much. But i didnt and remained disciplined by refocussing on my trading. Now of course people will see big numbers but remember its all relative to my bank. If you relook at my sheets im still well up for the 2 weeks, which just goes to show how well the strategies have actually been performing. Big focus will be on my football trades to end the week/october. If we can have anywhere between 5-8 points end of month for the results id be happy with that.
Edit: sorry about the oversized image, try fix that for next time
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Quick post this one. Currently having a stinker on the football really focusing 2nd half to look for good opps, still plenty to come rest of week tho.
Cricket:
Posted this because was one of my better times and efficient trades iv done o cricket so far. KKR posting a fairly competitive score was always going to be a good chase. KKR much the favs for at least the first 8 overs in the 2nd innings. Not really any opps popping up. Rayudu and gaikwad opening up caught my eye. Ferguson for KKR unable to be economic and not bowling with rhythm made me think of csk and the batting they still had left. DHONI, JADEJA and CURRAN. Entered at 1.69 and after only 15 mins in the market that price had shot down to 1.2 so i exited my liability. Could have taken a bigger green, but managing my position to see if they chased comfortably. Wicket fell so greened up. 1 good trade really upping my confidence. I think had i hung on in hope they swung out to 2.3/2.4 so would have smacked my stop loss. So ran the trade really efficiently with timing. Could have re entered on csk but i dont yet feel comfortable with late game drama.
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@darri very good read this thanks
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So the home office is setup, brand new layout for my flat, took me a while and full on geek mode for a day but the pc all setup with the monitors and tv ideally positioned. Will help with trading and my other ventures planned too. Onto the trading:
Cricket: +0.34
Was out for lunch today catching up with a mate, add in the delay to me getting things all setup wasnt ideal trading conditions. Managed to watch the 2nd half to the match. Having looked at previous scores saw that it was a fairly competitive score. So not having a huge opinion of a position to take pre inplay. MI started well but lost wickets at timely moments and the markets soon caught on. The problem with players like hardik and pollard is its either boom or bust. So with no opinion i just scalped a few times in MIs direction and topped up the overall total of the ipl for me so far.
Football: +3.70
Set and forget in the hiroshima game started the day off well. Changed how im selecting them a touch will see how they do over the next week or so. Onto the champs league. 2 really well done trades. Man utd bringing on rashford and bruno clear sign of trying to kill off the game so i jumped on. Goal came in the 75th min with rashford scoring and bruno assisting (key player research). Dortmund game i had expected more people to be looking at. All of dortmund key players playing. I just waited for odds of 1.75 to back a goal. Dortmund well on top sofascore was my double check on that with a huge favour of momentum for dortmund. Sancho soring the pen. I did try to get a LTD on there but pen came to early for the additional trade. Nicely done night, champs league yet again providing profits.
Conclusion: +4.04
Keeping it simple today paid off. People forget sometimes that the pros or those trading full time arent always at a screen all day. The benefit of doing this is to be able to plan ahead the games your eyeing up. Couple of trades could have been good or bad but with good prices they make for a nice days profit. Aiming to make sure the selection process remains this tight going into the latter parts of the week.
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@james-woodroffe im normally quite iffy on any sport backing small prices, but when you look at this game. At 1.31 with a few overs remaining if they reach anything over 210 then its the highest score at this ground. Sunrisers bowling is solid. DC have had a few dodgy batting performances/results. Then for me you then look at the 1.31 do sunrisers have a 76.3% chance of winning this. Yes i thought they had more like a +85% chance given the reasons for before. Once inplay and when the odds dropped to 1.1 and a few wickets down i made it a risk free by removing all liability. I think cricket is less cut and dry like football and trading can be more adaptable and dynamic. In football you place a trade and your boxed into that price due to your system and strike rate or because most often if your trading looking for a goal the price is always drifitng away from you longer you go. But with cricket you can setup your risk reward differently because you can jump in and out of trades all the way to the end. So for example backing at 1.31 if the price went out to 1.55-1.6 i would have traded out as that would be my trailing stop loss. But if it hits 1.1 ill remove liability. And then just watch the rest of game and look for another good entry later on. But with this one my hypothesis was right.
The people that made healthy profits probably got on when warner got out, as the total was already the best powerplay of the tournament and with the amount of batting they had left and overs i think i saw the price hit 1.45, hindsight tho, cant always be 100% efficient or right so im happy how i traded it, directional scalping is def a good top up on almost every game too.
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@darri learnt something new again today mate. I wouldn’t have thought to back SRH at those odds and to be honest I thought they were shorter. Learning that there is value in short priced favourites.
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Good overall day todayCricket: +1.08
sunrisers posted a score of 219. With odds hoevring around 1.31/1.33 during the break i jumped on. That was the highest score on that ground and with the bowling attack sunrisers had i felt confident that id at least be able to cashout for a small loss if they started badly, felt it as a risk free option. Wicket of dhawan in the first over and price rocketed down and another followed soon. I waited until price hit 1.1 until i removed liability and just let it play out with a few scalps to add the total up. Probably the easiest game iv had to trade this tournament.
Football: +1.47
Iffy start to the football tonight. Both viking and inter proving to be frustrating games. Inter game ended quite boring def my worst trade of the night. With that in mind i turned my attention to strong teams at home and then came the results we needed. Ipswich, atletico and atalanta all gving me goals when i needed them. FHG in the atalanta game, couldnt have asked for two better teams for the strat. Champs league can sometimes go under the radar for FHGs but alot of games have one and its an underused market. Ajax fresh off a 13-0 game i felt safe that there would be 1 (there was 2)
Atletico i watched from 2nd half onwards. I contemplated turning it off when there was two goals scored early second half. But Looking around there wasnt any other games that i liked look of. Glad i stayed on, atletico pushing for another goal. When i entered suarez, llorente and felix all playing. The inplay looked good. Felt like a no brainer. Got matched at 1.75 for another goal. Then game picked up even more, Salzburg so open as they tried themselves for another. So i added on my LTD with a lay being matched at 1.8. Goal came in the 85th minute and wrapped up a good day and night of trading.Its not always easy profits everyday sometimes you grind it out and your aim should always not be per day/week but long term. Many would have been frustrated losing the first 2 games. But you stick to your plans and allow your strategies to breathe and if you have solid match selections and pick good prices you will profit over time.
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@james-woodroffe very good read, i find it good reading how other pros go about trading in totally different ways. Like i said he inspired the layout of this blog, along with keiths made me setup this thread/blog. His par score approach is something iv tried to implement myself and so far so good. Definitely if your interested in cricket trading he is a good read.
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@rachel-murray i think these are the type of games in a years time we will recognise as oh yeah this happened so we should do this etc.
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Dari, just going thru your posts and stumbled across your recommendation to read Mark Iverson’s blog. Thanks mate, this has been a great read this morning still plenty to get thru but I recommend it.
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I struggled with the Mumbai game yesterday too. If I'd walked away after the first innings would've been in profit but I didn't. I don't know whether it's indecision or lack of patience for me...it's all learning though that's for sure.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@gary-brown thanks bud, for football do a run down of why i enter a game during that day/week?
Ian sure that could be helpful to many people. I know I would benefit from hat insight as well.
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@gary-brown thanks bud, for football do a run down of why i enter a game during that day/week?
