If I wanna go pro a blog might help me focus
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@james-woodroffe That's a great place to be, being right and focusing on that is good BUT the real rewards in trading come from spotting what you are doing wrong and then mastering them.
I treat like that a game!
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@ryan-carruthers hey mate, cheers and yes I find highlighting what I do wrong more satisfying and helpful than what I’ve done right.
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@james-woodroffe Very much enjoyed reading this!
Interesting the self reflection is really highlighting where you are letting your discipline go too.
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A couple of interesting days between posts. Some positives some negatives but the best thing is I’m learning from the negatives and making them positive.
So my daily trading plan is a real positive and yesterday had I not had a moment, best described as a bit of FOMO then yesterday would have been a very good day. As far as my planning goes my tennis strategies are all very much set now for when I back a Dog and for when I lay the first set winner.
I’ll be adopting Ryan’s 4-4 but slightly different when it comes to my Dog backs. The laying of First Set Winners I’m avoiding if the favourite wins the first set.
Baring in mind these are ATP strategies and not my preferred tennis trading which is the WTA.
Those strategies are also now set and I’m looking forward to the last WTA tournament of 2020 to implement them.
So yesterday on the tennis was pretty easy 1 trade by backing Medvedev after he dropped the first set backed at around 2.48 liability removed opening game of 2nd set and closed for 2.5 points green after storming thru the 2nd 6-2.
Had I already been up for the day I would have let it run but after a couple of
days I felt it important to lock in the green and then cheer Dobby the house elf on during the 3rd but Medvedev was way to good.
I’m glad I’ve found clarity with my tennis trading and strategies moving forward cause whilst I’ll be at the O2 next week I’ll be missing the Oz Open for the first time since 2002 so it will be good to be settled as I look to trade the Oz summer before hopefully being back on tour in March if the Rona doesn’t mess it all up.Which brings me to the Cricket.
The pennies are starting to drop and yesterday was definitely one that got away because A) I broke my golden rule and B) I broke my golden rule.
As Mumbai after a cracking start started to fall away I exited my trade for a tiny red but then entered again as Pollard came to the crease. STUPIDLY I didn’t allow him to settle I entered at 1.65 and two balls later he was out and Mumbai were 2.08. I panicked closed and then shortly after Mumbai were 1.43 they rocked to 200 and Delhi inside 7 balls were 3-0 (or 0-3 depending where you’re from) had I not entered and let the “other” Pandya settle after Pollard fell and with Kishan set I still could have got 2.0’s for Mumbai maybe 1.95 - 1.90 if I gave it a couple of extra balls before Mumbai went mad in the death overs. I know what I did wrong and I also know what I did right. I’m not making much profit on the IPL but it has been a bit like doing a course and I’ll pass the course and look to go forward as I am definitely a fan of the par score at 10,15 and 20 overs and looking to enter the market when everything is lined up nicely I just messed up yesterday with my entry and that won’t happen again. There’s only 2 IPL matches left and then I’ll be preparing my stats sheet and getting set for the upcoming BBL and International matches including some red ball action in early December.
So that’s that. A nice long walk yesterday helped clear the brain and I’m off now for another before settling in to do my research and prep for today.
Go Green.
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Dunno if I feel dirty or not but laying Biden at 1.40 yesterday has paid off. 2.5 points green to wake up on the couch with.
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Back in the game today, after an unscheduled Monday off and so glad I did after coming into today fresh and focused after a nice long chat with Ryan this morning.
Some lightbulb moments that I really think will help not just in November but definitely going forward.IPL MI v SRH
If only they were all like this. Then if they were everyone would be doing it. I’m getting so much more out of holding fire and not entering the market first opportunity I get, in fact sitting back and watching has made a huge difference and now I’m pretty much forcing myself to not enter until the run chase. Mumbai had nothing to play for today with top spot wrapped up and took the liberty of resting their two best quick bowlers. There was no hesitation from Warner to chase when he won the toss and no hesitation from me to hold fire. With SRH needing a win to make the semi finals there was only ever going to be one decision to make if the toss was won and to be fair the match was pretty much over not long after. Mumbai got to 149 not even remotely close enough and take Bumrah and Boult out of the equation and add a team peaking at the right time it was effectively a set and forget. Warner and Saha took control early and SRH romped to a 10 wicket win and with it a semi final berth. The odds were lower than what I am used to with odds on favourites but I knew if SRH got off to a flyer there wouldn’t be any value and I found a bit in the 1.27 at the change cause I thought 1.18-1.20 was more realistic but I could definitely be wrong but it’s how I saw it.
In the end I locked in +1 point green but more importantly I’m finally happy with this as an entry point going forward. The IPL has been a massive learning curve but by entering the market after the first innings I can wear my cricket nerd hat for the first half of limited over matches and be more confident in entering the market with a more grounded view of what’s transpiring.It was also a day of learning and lightbulb moments in the tennis. Without rambling I’m now more confident in when I’m going to remove liability and let a trade run and when it’s going to be in and out. I’ll be making a note of these matches in my plan for each day. Basically if I think a player will go on and win the match I’ll remove liability and if I’m not certain I’ll take my green when it presents. Perfect example Yishioka today in Paris lost the first set was broken early in the 2nd and I got out for a 2 point loss. Now I thought he’d win from the outset, and it’s always best to get broken early, but as I said I jumped out when a set and a break down which is Yishioka bread and butter. He fought back won the 2nd set and crushed a far inferior opponent in the 3rd set and I was left thinking “Bugger.”
The opposite was true for the Sandgren match. I had no idea if he would win or lose but at 2.54 he was definitely in the match more than those odds indicated. Sandgren broke twice in the first set wrapped it up 6-2 was 1.37ish at the start of the 2nd set so I took my green and got out and he lost the match in 3 sets. I’d never have stayed in cause his opponent was a pretty decent Frenchman and other than the value on Sandgren I had no real thought one way or the other. If I’d have learnt this mornings lesson a bit better previously, today would have been a very very green day.
I’ll take my 1 point happily after a dodgy start but more importantly like I said I’ll take the lightbulb moments and the teachings a lot more.
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Well November didn’t start the way I wanted it to but I’m not going to lose any sleep well at least I haven’t yet.
Very small Red on the Tennis yesterday no real opportunities presented themselves as Rublev cruises to yet another title in 2020 and will now have his sights set on the Paris Masters.
Was probably better off just leaving it but with Rublev trading at about 1.14-1.09 for most of the match it wasn’t going to hurt if Sonego presented himself with opportunities but whilst galant and gave a good account of himself he was never in it.The IPL was a frustrating day yesterday and it continues to grate now that it’s been a couple of days on the bounce of poor trading.
I got on Kings with Rahul and Gayle at the crease but my mindset was wrong as I was thinking that they were both pretty much due to fail and with Maxwell dropped would leave a bit of pressure on Pooran if that was the case. Well all 3 missed out this time so I took a slight red and then backed Kings with the thought that they had more to play for and a couple of early PP wickets would make for an interesting chase. Alas CSK win in a canter. For the following match I go ultra conservative and don’t get involved until RR are in all sorts of bother with Buttler and Tewari at the crease and 192 is the target. It’s again a low risk lay of KKR thinking that if these two get going those odds could go out nicely. Joss looks like a man able to put a spin on the narrative but when he falls for 30 odd it’s game over and again a stink day on the cricket.
It brings me to today and RCB v DC in Abu Dhabi and a semi final spot and potential double chance up for grabs. Chasing has been key in Abu Dhabi with 5 of the last 6 matches won by the team batting second however the Delhi batsman have no form to speak of and RCB are piling way to much pressure on the big 2 of Kohli and AB and a lot on young Pandikall. Delhi have been heavily reliant on Dhawan and it’s no surprise that his recent back to back failures have resulted in poor efforts from Delhi.
Will be interesting to see how it unfolds and if chasing is the preferred tactic again today.Football. I had to try really hard and not get involved in the football and again it’s something I’m struggling with as I’ve said before I’ve invested so much time in football trading that shoving it on the back burner has proven difficult, however it might replace the tennis going forward depending on work.
Anyway rant over
Back on the horse today can’t wait for the IPL. -
@james-woodroffe great attitude love it!
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So October has finished up and not the way I would have wanted after a bad day yesterday but that’s ok because I’ve learnt a fair bit this month and am looking forward to the new challenges that November will bring.
Firstly with the cricket and yesterday I took a position in DC’s innings after the MI odds got to 1.39 reasonably early with the belief that some one for Delhi would get going but Delhi’s ordinariness has been ingrained for far to long nobody got going and Mumbai won in a canter so that was a red screen to kickstart proceedings. The RCB match didn’t go much better. I waited entered in the RCB innings at good odds just as AB was looking settled and ready to rip the match apart but no sooner did I enter he went out so I exited as the RCB middle to lower order are not that good and didn’t enter again until the change of innings. SRH were 1.10 to lay chasing 120 I dunno why cause I know a fair bit about cricket but I thought the way the deck was playing 120 might be a tricky chase and when Warner fell early I thought I was on to something. Couldn’t have been more wrong SRH won in a canter and the damage was done because I stayed in way to long expecting something that never eventuated. It wasn’t a good day.
The tennis wasn’t good either after laying Rublev early thinking that this should be a tough match big Kev looked lame towards the end of the first set so I got out for a hit thus ending October.I’m going to settle back and enjoy the Paris masters next week the times will be good for me to do some scalping on the tennis and after settling on my tennis entry and exit points for scalping, the tennis kinda drifted away a little bit from me last week. I prefer to trade the WTA but there is none atm so it will have to be the guys.
As for the cricket two words spring to mind for November TEST MATCH. Yes test cricket and up until the IPL the only cricket I had traded going back 12 months. I really can’t wait I’ll take test cricket over T20 cricket any day but with it will come a whole change to hours kept. NZ v WI coming up and I’ll be in my element. I can trade at night in peace and quiet and get used to the timezones going forward. I’ve messed Tennis Australia around a bit the last few weeks so I’m not sure if I’m going back to Oz in December or not for the Aussie summer of tennis but if not I’ll be on that timezone. I’ve learnt a lot trading the IPL and my confidence levels have zigzagged as I still picking things up but I can’t wait for the dulcet tones of the red ball.
I’ve rambled a bit today and not really said much but the gist is. New month, new opportunities and new mindset to go forward.
Let’s start keeping proper records going forward now since I started this blog thing only a week ago and here’s to everyone having a green November. -
@james-woodroffe the odds on the exchanges will always be better mate, not the sizeable difference like the one you have here tho, seems bizarre, bookies have to have an edge. But always use exchanges. I get why you want a "dirty bank" but you could maybe look at smarkets or betdaq but less is more and having all your stuff together will work better long term. Have you thought about a set and forget for the football apprach instead. This would allow you to focus firmly on the tennis and cricket. I honestly cant recommend enough you just stick to one sport at a time. This isnt me being stubborn, this is me speaking from experience of being burned badly in the past trying the exact same approach.
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Only the one tennis trade today from the lay the first set winner strategy.
There were more but as I said today was busy.
Evans v Dimitrov from the L1SW strat.
The thing I was most happy with was the fact that I had green from the last day and the cricket trade this morning so I risked 2 of the 4 points I was up and backed Dimitrov at 3.0 after Evans had taken the first set 7-3 in the breaker.
There was an early moment in the 2nd where Dimitrov had to fight and save a break point (possibly 2 not sure) but he got thru his service game and then went about breaking Evans the next game. I removed my liability on Evans and then watched as Dimitrov levelled at a set all with a 6-4 scoreline. With Evans serving first I held fire and despite getting to 30-30 Evans held and I bailed for just under 1 point.I also decided that the dirty bank I would try and that way I could continue working on my football strategies at minimal stakes whilst protecting my trading bank by leaving it only for cricket and tennis.
I had a FHG in Holland go against me which I entered at around 38 mins @ 5.0 and as yesterday the home side scored 2 mins into the 2nd half. I just missed the 3rd goal at Coventry as the home side went up 2-1 but saw enough to see another goal coming and entered the over 3.5 market at 2.50 and was happy with that and happier with the 85th minute winner.
I feel like that decision to move my football trading to a separate account and to take the pressure of earning away whilst I just look to refine and evolve could be a good one. I only really back the next over late in a match so as long as I find value in my backs heres hoping it works. There was one other match that Dari posted and when I saw the odds on 365 for over 2.5 they were woeful. I thought I'd just missed the goal and it hadn't been updated as it was 1.14 on 70 minutes. I quickly checked on the exchange and noticed the significant difference and the odds obviously justified Dari's trade. I wondered if 365 might have just been having an issue because the odds weren't even remotely close. The other matches I had no issue so I wonder has anybody else ever noticed massive discrepancies between matches and is it something to be aware of or was it likely just a short term glitch in the mainframe so to speak.
Anyway a good day that I'm happy with and looking forward to the new month and a slowly turning mindset (I think for the better) perhaps developing. -
No IPL for me today it was just the ODI from earlier.
I did enter again for a tiny lay of Pakistan at about 1.19 which just left the 1 point on Pakistan and 2 on Zimbabwe had they won. There would have been the option to remove liability on the tie but I forgot
so all in all a 0.5 point profit on the day for the cricket. -
Entered again with Pakistan at 1.04 again risking a 0.5 point but considerable green on Zimbabwe. A move out to 1.23 and a Point now locked in.
Another entry of Zim at 4.70 to look to boost the green.
I’m out 1.25 points green if Pakistan win and 1.5 points green if Zimbabwe win. Might even it out tho if it looks like Zim are going to get the job done and will monitor the tie if it becomes relevant as I laid YES at 1.02.
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IPL today could fall into the too hard basket to trade with family stuff going on but at the moment have got involved with the ODI between Pakistan and Zimbabwe.
Zim chasing 282 and Pakistan a very short 1.19 to lay. They were in fact 1.05 during their own innings. Small stake to get my entry sorted with Zimbabwe’s two most experienced batsman at the crease in Brendan Taylor and Craig Ervine. Good partnership at the moment and first goal will be to remove liability which is only a half point.Liability removed about 5 mins before the Ervine wicket fell so it’s just over a point profit on a Zim
win I’m actually just looking for 0.5 point green before closing out. -
Thinking it might not be a bad idea to have the old dirty bank for my football for a while. Continue to work on and improve my football trading but leaving my trading bank to focus on cricket and tennis going forward.
Two late goal trades last night at Granada and Roma both matches were and ended 0-0 when I entered on 70 mins. Risked 0.5 point on each match to make just over a point so my +4.5 day ended +3.5 -
Today Thursday not to shabby at all but first. Before I mention today, last night and the football. It’s been mentioned by wiser heads than mine that 3 sports is biting off a bit to much and yes I couldn’t agree more, it’s a tough one because without football I wouldn’t have discovered Betfair let alone BTC and it’s kinda a tough one because I’ve put a lot off effort into my football trading this past 15 months and I’ve come a long way. I really only enter late regardless of a FHG or if I do a LCS from 70 minutes and so giving up football cold turkey as I focus on cricket and tennis I’m finding a little tough. I was meant to type all this before but I wrote the first part of yesterday’s blog today wandering aimlessly with the better half thru Tesco and M&S. My idea of Purgatory is being stuck for all eternity travelling between Ikea and Tesco’s so you can imagine my mood as I typed away before going full petulant child and saying to my better half as I quit the post “If we’re not out of here in 5 minutes I’m causing a scene can we just hurry up?”
So yesterday and football.
I grabbed a points profit from a FHG in Japan in the morning with the Yokohama game and later that night thought there was value on 37 minutes in the Sevilla match for a FHG so I risked a point at 3.30 to back but alas they decided to score 2 mins into the 2nd half instead. I had my eye on a late goal in Bournemouth and at Dortmund but I had to read some Spike Milligan so that never happened. By the time I flopped on the couch I was watching the United v Leipzig match and at 1-0 I was looking to LCS. The market got suspended as I went to enter it was 2-0 and then it was 3-0 I decided United weren’t done and laid 3-0 at 1.75 for a 1.5% stake and they scored to make it 4-0 I also entered the Lazio match and felt over confident about this which I think was a result of the big money being matched in the market. It finished 1-1 I drip laid and blew 3 points so was down 2 points shut down the computer and called it a night thinking to my self “Theres nothing you can do now s**t happens.”Today!!
Today was good, today I was to busy to trade for most of it so I skipped the tennis and focused on the cricket and I’m glad I did because for most of the CSK v KKR match I was busy and I was adamant that “you’re not entering until you can sit down chill out and focus and that’s gunna be late in the match. So I wandered about the house in a cleaning frenzy to prepare for a bunch of 5 year olds and Halloween with the cricket on in the background and the tunes pumping. KKR got to 173 courtesy of some nice late blows and I thought yeah let’s see and don’t forget to lay the tie. Which I did for a point at1.04and then continued to faff about in the house and watching to see how things progressed. After 27 runs between overs 9-11 CSK were 1.45 and looking good with two set batsman and the run rate under control. Three wickets including both set batsman fell and I decided to cash out for a red screen then with CSK at 3.0 I entered again for my max 5% to be in the market but couldn’t get matched and settled at 2.64 I had faith that either Jadeja or Curran would get going and the match was far from over. It was Jadeja and the tie became a major factor and decent green to negotiate as the 2nd last ball sails its 1 off 1 a dot ball and it’s a tie. Now I’m not thinking KKR now can’t win I just take 2 points I’ve got 2.5 more on NO tie so I’m 4.5 points to the good if CSK win, a dot ball and it’s 15 points as the ball heads into the desert it’s 4.5 points but absolutely stoked with the trade. However with experience will come the “Yo they can’t win its tie or bust” in those situations but that’s cool live and learn.
Apologies for the rambling.
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@james-woodroffe no problem lad, last post was a good read mate
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@darri you beat me to it. I was out and about today it’s been quite busy. I was going to mention the football in the next post. “As a before I continue” Life just got in the way and thought I’d just add it later.
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@james-woodroffe what about your football trades? Saw you post the other day with a few, 3 sports might be a tough task to manage everyday when your still just learning? Think i saw @Martin-Futter post saying similar before, looks like cricket and tennis are your passions which is great to read. I keep battling everyday with cricket to make sure my "fanboy" love for the game doesnt seep into trading, writing down a quick plan (key partnerships, bowlers, par scores etc) for just as the game starts keeps me on track to make sure im trading. Huge advocate for richard settled batmen approach, slight adaptation in terms of how long you give them in t20 over the length of this comp, a set batsmen coming into the last 5 overs is something id rather be on than not good example of that with suryakumar yesterday for MI.
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So here’s the wrap for Wednesday which was another learning day and again a little up a little down.
IPL MI vs RCB
I got very excited about this match more so as a cricket tragic which for my trading originally backfired. After a very promising start from RCB the stage was set for a very good score I was thinking 180 with Kholi and AB to come and was settling in for a masterclass from one of them and odds of 1.84 as the RCB skipper strolled to the crease. However even the best have bad days and after Virat and AB fell cheaply the rest of the RCB batsman with the exception of Pandikall who batted beautifully and has a massive future could only muster 164 which I thought at innings end was well under what they were on target for but was still staring at a red screen. The thing that bugged me was I didn’t follow Richard’s set partnership strategy during the first dig I did the James’s Kohli and AB strategy and that it’s safe to say didn’t work well in testing.
However I remained confident that 164 was not enough and MI so I backed them at the start of the innings and laid the tie at 1.04. MI lost wickets but never in clumps they always had the RR seemingly under control and with Suryakumar playing beautifully and with Pandya in top form they took it to the last over but never looked like losing. I locked in 0.75 a point at the start of the 18th. It wasn’t great but it wasn’t red and the set batsman strategy applies to favourite players also they’re not immune.Vienna Tennis.
Tough day in Vienna.
I thought Casper Rudd was more of a chance than his 3.85 price suggested against Jannik Sinner and for the majority of the first set I was wrong. Struggling to hold easy and not getting much of a look in on Sinner’s serve at all until late in the set when Rudd finally got an opening. He couldn’t take it and it seemed to deflate him and he dropped the set 7-5. Sinner was then 1.09
and I took a bit expecting a tight 2nd set. Sinner broke early and I was out. Later in the set Rudd broke back I was tempted to enter but didn’t and was glad I didn’t as Sinner broke straight back. I was down 1.5points.
The Tsitsipas v Struff match was strong for laying the first set winner and was happy to see Tsitsipas down after dropping the first in a breaker. Struff wasn’t worth laying but 2.36 was great for Stefanos. A quick break a commanding performance and it was 1 set a piece.
Had I not had the Rudd trade I would have removed liability and stayed in but 2 points were staring at me from a 5% stake meaning I’d be 0.5 point green so I took it.
Now I should have taken the green from the cricket and tennis and called it however the Carreno Busta v Anderson match was also on the lay first set winner and after Anderson won the first set by getting a late break and holding to take it 7-5 he was a juicy 1.29 to lay. Pablo however couldn’t shake the fact he got broke so late and got broken again at the start of the 2nd. Now on the WTA laying a player down a set and a break is to me a no brainer but laying Kevin Anderson down a set and a break is just stupid. My logic was it’s early Pablo can get this back where as he was thinking “mmmm dinner, beer fly to Paris”. He got broke again I was screwed I took a 5 point loss.
I’ll refocus and go again today.
