The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

2/3 today for 3 points profit.

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Point lost today. Watch Listowel tomorrow as it is predicted Heavy. 3.5-9 Odds range as usual

[John Folan]

Point lost today. Watch Listowel tomorrow as it is predicted Heavy. 3.5-9 Odds range as usual

[John Folan]

[John Folan]

Two points yesterday 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

Nothing today

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Scratch today.

[John Folan]

[A Former User]

@john-folan Indeed! Hopefully that opens the floodgates!

[John Folan]

Finally!!!!

[Martin]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Patternform is now £10 a month. People will now be looking for alternatives and looking for value if they are spending money. Good time to be launching horse software. HINT HINT

@adam-williams @Ryan-Carruthers

[John Folan]

[John Folan]

[John Folan]

Patternform is now £10 a month. People will now be looking for alternatives and looking for value if they are spending money. Good time to be launching horse software. HINT HINT

[A Former User]

@john-folan Hard times at the moment but we just need to plough on!

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

No hit. Just the one today. It's in a class 2 race

Beaten by a neck but still didn’t trade low enough to convert

[John Folan]

No hit. Just the one today. It's in a class 2 race

[John Folan]

Today's. Only the one. Probably will be outside the odds too. Up to date revised spreadsheet attached

0_1600168836961_Trob Strategies.xlsx

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Spent the morning sorting these out. I hate losing money and I was pretty sure I knew what the problem was.

I have added a class filter. 0's are Irish races, generally handicaps. They don't have the same class system as over here. Other than that it is pretty obvious that top class racing is a no no. At some point I will update the sheet to reflect this.
Group 1's 2's and 3's are the split for Class 1 Handicaps. Group 3's obviously closer to class 2's.

It actually makes sense that the best races are difficult to make money on.

The best races attract the most money so it's where the bookies need to be most precise. Just like in football where it's very difficult to find any value in the match odds markets for the best leagues like Premier League, La Liga, etc. The bookies have way too much information and have to be extremely good at making sure the odds are precise as they will lose a lot of money if they fail.

Although TROB'ing is a bit different than outright betting, the start odds still reflect pretty precisely the actual chance of a horse winning and this will correlate with how much you can expect a horse to over-perform in the given race.

Pretty much nailed on my thought process. That explanation makes perfect sense. I will be avoiding anything decent from now on. The group threes could just be closer to class 2’s than ones.

Agree on the trobbing. The horse will have to run relatively close to trob. Looking for an over reaction like there generally is in football when a goal is scored.

I will stick the revised spreadsheet up later when I do the trobs. Matey hasn’t added Tipperary yet so I am holding off until he does.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Spent the morning sorting these out. I hate losing money and I was pretty sure I knew what the problem was.

I have added a class filter. 0's are Irish races, generally handicaps. They don't have the same class system as over here. Other than that it is pretty obvious that top class racing is a no no. At some point I will update the sheet to reflect this.
Group 1's 2's and 3's are the split for Class 1 Handicaps. Group 3's obviously closer to class 2's.

It actually makes sense that the best races are difficult to make money on.

The best races attract the most money so it's where the bookies need to be most precise. Just like in football where it's very difficult to find any value in the match odds markets for the best leagues like Premier League, La Liga, etc. The bookies have way too much information and have to be extremely good at making sure the odds are precise as they will lose a lot of money if they fail.

Although TROB'ing is a bit different than outright betting, the start odds still reflect pretty precisely the actual chance of a horse winning and this will correlate with how much you can expect a horse to over-perform in the given race.