The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@Ryan-Carruthers Hi Ryan, i'm trying to look at ways of automating your Betgreen trades on BA and turn it into a passive strategy (perhaps not viable, not sure yet). The main problem i foresee is where the underdog takes the lead - firstly this may move us into the red if the draw odds don't rise enough, and then obviously if the favourite then equalises then the game is back to a draw and we'd potentially remain in the same / worse red position depending on the timing and dynamics of the match. However, looking at your Betgreen results, only games that are 0-0 at 70 mins are considered to be losing trades, which would suggest that in all games with at least one goal at 70 mins (even if the underdog scored first), there has come a point where our position was green and the trade was a winner. Am i interpreting the results correctly? Hopefully that's the case, because if so i think there is a way that automation is doable. Cheers
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@terry-cooke I'd want the price to be around 1.51 before I would enter personally, then you are stacking the odds in your favour.
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@terry-cooke cheers seems like value, the neutral venues dont seem to have affected the amount of goals
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@john-hurst This one here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cpqyy6ijhtHNRs_7sSVBMVIrWEhmAuLFXVLnN51DUFs/edit#gid=589293455On Martins results sheet
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@terry-cooke which is the probability chart mate?
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@ryan-carruthers Yes mate a sh goal filter, i have a half decent one here, wonder if it can be tweaked to allow for more drawn ht games. Ill have a gander
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Morning all,
So im looking at doing a passive FHG on the Guangzhou game, and the odds at the min are 1.35. I'm planning on dripping my stake in every 25 ticks above the this price. Looking at the previous 5 games for each team there have been 9 games that have had a FHG, so would imply that there's a 90% chance. Looking at the probability chart it implies around 73% chance. Is this value?
Thanks
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@john-hurst Gotcha, they are of a general ilk, they are both targeted at finding a goal in the SH. The main difference is that with a HT LTD one they are aiming for games to be a draw at HT which can cut the selections down.
Are you working on some filters?
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@ryan-carruthers just in general really mate- is there a difference between Ltd and sh goal filters or are they of a similar ilk.
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Hey buddy @John-Hurst, can you elaborate a little more do you mean in general or with my selections?
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@ryan-carruthers is there a difference between a sh goal filter and a ltd one mate?
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Did anybody see if the Irish 1st Div games went inplay tonight? Specifically Drogheda and Bray.
A few leagues i notice normally don't go inplay but occasionally do. Irish 1st Division is one and the lower leagues in Scandinavian don't either. If i am not sure, i go on the berfair site and look at the fixtures if they have a green box with a tick in it to the right of the fixture the match should go inplay . Also there is an option on the filter selection and you can tick the box going inplay.
Hopefully with the fixtures for the weekend the urge to trade a Swedish div 2 Norra league match won't be there lolYeah but it's just for something I'm working on so didn't see these. They don't always tell the truth anyway haha!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Did anybody see if the Irish 1st Div games went inplay tonight? Specifically Drogheda and Bray.
A few leagues i notice normally don't go inplay but occasionally do. Irish 1st Division is one and the lower leagues in Scandinavian don't either. If i am not sure, i go on the berfair site and look at the fixtures if they have a green box with a tick in it to the right of the fixture the match should go inplay . Also there is an option on the filter selection and you can tick the box going inplay.
Hopefully with the fixtures for the weekend the urge to trade a Swedish div 2 Norra league match won't be there lol -
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer all of them were suspended when i looked so i dont think so
Cheers Martin. I won't use the data of these for the thing I'm working on then.
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@richard-latimer all of them were suspended when i looked so i dont think so
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Did anybody see if the Irish 1st Div games went inplay tonight? Specifically Drogheda and Bray.
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@terry-cooke lucky the price was so good before kick off, they kept it suspended until about 12 minutes in. Betfair are an odd bunch
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@martin-walker thank you, i took up that kind tip of yours at 1.56!
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@martin-walker I got on it before KO but BF kept it suspended like all the other Ireland games
