BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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In from 1.7 to 1.48
thought that might happen -
@richard-futter that rain market spike yesterday was a great play . always happy to get risk out around the 1.3-1.2 range .. if barba still at crease late ish on and can farm strike could be 10-20 ticks to make laying ENG ..
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@nathan-bennett It's never 100% predictable, but judging by the radar it looks like there'll be another bout of heavy rain before a long period of drizzle. The key will be how long that drizzle continues. When it eventually finishes and the covers start to come off, the draw price will definitely move up for a short while anyway.
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@richard-futter brilliant again cheers . yes no doubt when world sees covers on be moved
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The final day of Test cricket this 'summer' hinges on two things - how long it takes to clear up after the overnight and morning downpour, and how England bowl with the new ball if, and when, it becomes available after 80 overs of the second Pakistan innings.
Judging by the forecasts and radar, it seems the rain will die out some time around the usual lunch-break. After such a deluge, it's going to take at least two hours to make the surface playable, so we're probably looking at a start around 3pm.
That would leave England around four hours to take the remaining 8 wickets, which would be an uphill task. I'd have the draw at around 1.3 if that is the resumption time.
But I wouldn't rule England out. If they could take an early wicket or two, there price would shorten hugely, given the brittle nature of the Pakistan tail.
In the short term, though, I think the value is in backing the draw at the current level of around 1.7.
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@Martin-Futter
Hi Martin, i'm about to start my cricket trading journey rather simply by testing out your T20 Magic Number strategy with minimum stakes for a while. I like the set and forget element of it. From what i can tell it's as simple as laying both teams in matches in major T20 competitions / internationals at 1.4 with a view to the price swings taking effect. Are there any records of previous trades for this strategy showing strike rate etc, as there is for the football and horse strategies? If not do you have any pearls of wisdom i need to bear in mind before i crack on? -
With the storm due tonight and how long it took to prep the field today ready for play. Is there value in laying England right now at 3.15?
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@richard-futter cheers.. has to be dark
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ominous lets hope they stay out
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Heavy rain very soon I reckon
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@nathan-bennett said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@richard-futter it's like 2 down already yes
barely moved the ball there, terrible wicket keeping again
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@richard-futter it's like 2 down already yes WOW not even gloved
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@nathan-bennett don't need wickets - price crashing in anyway
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YES ! hoping ENG off to a flyer . Also hoping Barba there late with mid order and get a earn Laying low for something
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Got to fancy England to take at least a couple of early wickets with the new ball in these conditions.
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Looks like the worst of rain might already have gone through Southampton - market moving in England's direction.
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If ever there was a match that hinged on the weather, it's this one. The even odds on both the draw and the England win reflect that perfectly.
With the forecasts, it's a question of you pays yer money and takes yer choice. If you believed the Met Office you'd be backing England, but if you trust the Beeb more, you'd be lumping on the draw.
I expect some big swings today and there could be good profits on offer.
10.30 is a good time to get involved. That's when the TV coverage starts and if it's raining at that time you can be pretty certain the draw will shorten quite dramatically. Looking at the radar I'd say that's a pretty safe bet - so if you're brave you might want to steal a march and get on the draw now.
On the other hand, if it suddenly looks much brighter than expected the price is likely to go in England's favour.
Should be a good day for trading, if a rather frustrating one for viewers.
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@martin-futter 383 I think .
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@luke-ridger what's the follow on target?
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This test has turned into a drabfest. Root could have declared alot earlier with rain forecasted.
