BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Very good by ENG early R/R big
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Late to the scene .. was smart took draw 4.3-3.5 flipped now on the lay train . something @3.4
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Don’t say this often but Eng may be of some value at 2.
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@dean-adams said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Halfway through 3’s already
Mind boggling!
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Halfway through 3’s already
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I’ve started with a small lay on Eng under 300 runs, anticipating an early wicket or two.
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On the money @Richard-Futter
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Apparently the wind will be gale force from one end of the ground which will make bowling difficult. The pitch expected to be quite soft, so wouldn't expect Wood or Archer to play. If England win the toss and bat, their price will certainly shorten quite a bit.
Normally I would be happy to lay the draw at 4.... but after the weather of last week and with a few showers expected, I'll be treading with care until later in the match.
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According to net weather we get 3 decent days in anyway. Monday chance of rain and Tuesday is prob a washout.
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@jon-m prob a new way to delay things ha.., expect usual market stuff early . pretty good seeing $4 at mo draw for a SP expect when goes in play this market to trim after few overs(standard stuff)and fire in lays bang ! win toss and bat and bat well win ... def a wait and hold 30-45mins
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Friday’s forecast is a v windy day. Anyone have any insights into how that could affect the Test?
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@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Speaking of which how are we are feeling bout the 3rd test. Where’s the value?
Errr... too early to say though I’d like to see Pak bat first and put on a 300+ score.
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Speaking of which how are we are feeling bout the 3rd test. Where’s the value?
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@richard-futter brilliant and thanks very much. Apologies if this has been mentioned before but England and Pakistan have agreed to earlier start times 10:30am in case we have problematic weather like in the previous test.
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@sajjo-lohar 100% on the spin bowlers pitches hard to bat on and if trying to slog not bat coming un done
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Fantastic. Thx Richard & Martin. Your insight and guidance is invaluable!
This really is a great community with those with experience willing to help those without it. Brilliant.
Let’s try and see how we get on. Thx again. -
Thank you Team Futter! That’s given me some great info to build on, to keeping plugging in with T20’s. Onwards and upwards!
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@richard-futter Outstanding
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There's going to be an awful lot of T20 cricket in the coming weeks. The Caribbean Premier League has already started, the Blast in the UK begins next week, there are internationals between England and Pakistan on the horizon - and the Indian Premier League finally getting off the ground next month.
So I thought I'd give a few pointers as to how I tend to trade these matches, during their various phases:
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The first few overs are quite difficult to trade before a pattern is established, and I tend to go for what I call the "double figure" strategy. Basically I wait until both batsmen have reached 10 or more and then back the batting side. I keep stakes low and don't get too ambitious; I generally take out most of the red when I'm 10-20 ticks in profit and leave a little in if I feel the batting side looks strong. If a wicket falls I obviously accept the loss but over the years I've found that the successful trades strongly outweigh the failures. I would only use this strategy for the first 15 overs of an innings as in the latter stages wickets can often fall in clumps.
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The latter stages of an innings offer some great chances of bouncebacks after a wicket. As has already been mentioned in some earlier posts, the market often overreacts to a wicket, which in the grand scheme of things might not make a huge difference to the final score and it doesn't take much to send the market into a quick reverse.
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The second innings. I would again employ the "double figure" strategy, although I would lower the stakes as you tend to get bigger moves with both runs and wickets.
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The final overs. My very favourite time. More often than not I will have a decent amount of green in the bank and can put in a very low lay knowing that whatever happens I won't lose overall. I generally look for a lay around the 1.03-1.05 mark, especially if it's the bowling side who are favourites. In the various domestic T20 leagues virtually every team has lower order batsmen quite capable of launching a few sixes or fours which send the price shooting upwards at a rate of knots. The price quite regularly rises to 1.2, 1.3, 1.5 or even 2 on occasions.
I hope this of some help to people. A warning though: T20's can be a real roller-coaster ride, so don't overstake. I keep my stakes to between 10-25% of what they would be in a Test Match.
Also look out for the "marquee players" - ie. the really highly rated stars of the the league. Leg spinner Rashid Khan is one - the price of the bowling side tends to come down when he comes on to bowl. And when batsmen like Kieron Pollard or Andre Russell are out the market can often continue to go against the batting side for some time.
So, take a look at the matches and markets to see how the various factors move them. You will note familiar patterns along the way and develop profitable strategies of your own I'm sure.
Good luck to everyone.
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